本文围绕上海环境经济发展的阶段和过程 ,基于 7项原则 ,选取总人口、国内生产总值、固定资产总投资、城区人均居住面积、水质指数、环境保护投资等 10个指标 ,采用相关分析、回归分析、比较分析等手段 ,对上海 1978— 1998年间城市区域发展过程进行分析和探讨 ,寻求上海区域环境经济发展的特征和演化规律。研究结果显示近 2 0年来上海环境与经济关系之间的协调状况有一定的改善 ,在经济适度增长时期这种改善表现得较为突出 ;相关分析的结果则表明 1990 - 1998年间各项指标的相关性总体上高于 1979- 1989年间 ,且部分指标间相关系数发生了正负向的变化.

According to the targets and action plans towards sustainable development set up in China's Agenda 21-Shanghai Action Plan, based on seven principles, this paper selects ten indicators including total population, total GDP, total fixed investment, water quality index etc.to study Shanghai's regional development process during 1978-1998 through correlation coefficient and regression analysis. The aim of the study is to approach the characteristics and regulations of Shanghai's regional development and to provide bases for future needs. Research showed that the confliction between economic growth and environmental improvement has come to relax in the latest 20 years especially during the period with moderate economic growth rate at 7-8%. More close correlation occurred during 1990-1998 compared with that in 1979-1989. From the regression analysis, GDP was an indicator that can be forecasted with a relatively small error.