在对资源型城市可持续发展中面临的普遍性生态环境问题进行分析的基础上,结合济宁市的实例,对济宁市生态环境现状进行评估,并采用库茨涅茨曲线拟合分析,进而对济宁市生态环境进行预测。根据预测结果,提出了生态环境综合整治的重点。结果认为,济宁市生态环境问题比较严重,体现在煤烟型空气污染突出、水污染严重、采煤塌陷地日趋扩大、整体生态环境脆弱等,这些问题将直接影响其经济发展的可持续性。济宁市应以采煤塌陷地的综合整治为突破口,加大生态环境治理力度,科学划分生态功能区,因区进行生态保护与管制,做好资源型城市生态环境建设的试验与示范,构建生态型产业体系,使其自然生态系统更有效地支撑经济、社会的可持续发展。

Resources-based cities are one of the principal types of city in China.Along with the development of market economy of China,these cities now face many difficulties and challenges.Promoting the transfer of their development mode has been an important strategic problem concerning social stability.Related international studies began 50 years ago,but in China it's still on the way and is a hot spot in the academic circle.This paper aims at revealing the eco-environmental problems that coal resources-based cities are facing through a case study of Jining city and providing useful references for the ecological transfer of resources-based cities. As a coal resources-based city,the increased production value of coal and electric utility industry of Jining city was about 49.7% of that of its scalesized industry,and its industrial structure is single.As a result,the main eco-environmental problems are prominent smoke pollution,severe water pollution,ever expanding subsided land of coal mining area,fragile eco-environment and so on.These will directly influence the sustainability of the economic development.This paper analyses the relation between the industrial/economic development of Jining city and its environmental pollution using environmental Kuznets curve quantitatively,and combining the actual situation of the city,forecasts its prospective discharge of waste gas,waste water,solid wastes and the subsided coal mining area.The results show that the economic development of the city is still in the high increase,high consumption and high pollution stage,if it develops at the present way,its discharge of waste gas,waste water and solid wastes will inevitably increase continuously,so will its subsided coal mining area. So Jining city needs to strengthen environment repairing by taking the comprehensive renovation of its subsided land of coal mining area as a breakthrough;demarcates eco-functional districts scientifically and carries out ecological protection and control according to actual conditions of each district;proceeds experimentation and demonstration of a resources-based city and constructs ecological industrial system,so as to make its natural eco-system support economic and social development more effectively.