应用历年气象、水稻产量资料和冷害指标,分析东北地区水稻低温冷害发生的温度条件、气候频率和风险概率,建立了水稻冷害气候风险度模式,将东北地区分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5级水稻冷害气候风险度区。在气候风险性分析的基础上,考虑各地水稻冷害减产率、总产量和面积比例等经济损失因素,建立水稻生产对低温冷害反应的经济脆弱度模式,将东北地区划分成高度脆弱、脆弱、低脆弱和不脆弱4级区。东北地区的北部和东部是水稻冷害高气候风险区,中部为中度冷害气候风险区,南部冷害气候风险较低。吉林省东部和黑龙江省东北部是水稻冷害经济高度脆弱区,黑龙江省东部多数县市、吉林省东部半山区为脆弱区,黑龙江省西南部、吉林省中北部和辽宁省东北部为低脆弱区,吉林省西南部和辽宁省大部为不脆弱区。改善种植结构、调整品种布局和采用抗低温栽培技术是降低水稻冷害风险度和经济脆弱度的主要措施。
马树庆, 王琪, 王春乙, 霍治国
. 东北地区水稻冷害气候风险度和经济脆弱度及其分区研究[J]. 地理研究, 2011
, 30(5)
: 931
-938
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2011050017
Applying calendar weather, rice yield data and chilling injury index of Northeast China, this paper analyzed thermal condition, occurrence frequency and risk probability of rice chilling damage, and developed an evaluation model of the climate risk index of the damage. Thus, Northeast China region is divided into five types of rice climate risk areas of highest, higher, medium, lower and lowest levels. In climate risk analysis, based on considerations the rice cold damage cut rates, total output and the area ratio and other economic loss factors, the economy vulnerability model of the damage was developed, and the region was divided into four type areas of economic vulnerability, i.e., high degree of vulnerability, vulnerability, low vulnerablility and non-vulnerability. Northern and eastern parts of Northeast China is the high climate risk area, the central part is medium risk area, and the southern part is the lower one. Eastern Jilin Province and northeastern Heilongjiang Province are high economy vulnerability areas, eastern Heilongjiang and the eastern hilly land of Jilin are medium or higher economy vulnerability areas, southwestern and central Heilongjiang and central Jilin are lower vulnerable areas, and southwestern Jilin and most parts of Liaoning Province are the non-vulnerable areas. The main technical and strategic measures to reduce the risk and vulnerability are to improve the planting structure, to adjust the rice variety and to use the cultivation technique of resisting the damage.
[1] 张养才,何维勋,李世奎.中国农业气象灾害概论.北京:气象出版社,1991.25~30.
[2] 王书裕.作物低温冷害研究.北京:气象出版社,1995.116~120.
[3] 王绍武,马树庆,陈莉,等.低温冷害.北京:气象出版社,2009.23~40.
[4] 马树庆,王琪,沈享文,等.水稻障碍型冷害损失评估及预测模型研究.气象学报,2003,61(4):507~512.
[5] 孙玉亭,王书裕、杨永歧.东北区作物冷害研究.气象学报,1983,41(3):313~321.
[6] 王春乙. 重大农业气象灾害研究进展.北京: 气象出版社,2007.263~277.
[7] 马树庆,王琪,王连敏,等.水稻花期低温不育评估模式试验研究.气象学报,2000,58(增刊):954~960.
[9] Tetsuo Satake. Determination of the most sensitive stage to Sterile-type cool injury in rice plants. Res.Bull.Hokkaido National Agricultural Experiment Station 113,1976.1~35
[10] Makoto Kuroki, Koji Saito, Shuichi Matsuba, et al. A quantitative trait locus for cold tolerance at the booting stage on rice chromosome 8. Theor Appl Genet, 2007, 115:593~600.
[11] 方修琦, 王媛.气候变暖的适应行为与黑龙江省夏季低温冷害的变化.地理研究, 2005,24(5):673~680.
[12] William J Petak,Arthur A Atkisson. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Pulic Policy: Anticipating the Unexpected.New York: Springer-Verlag,1982.
[13] 李世奎, 霍治国,王道龙,等.中国农业灾害风险评估与对策.北京:气象出版社,1999.222~229.
[14] 马树庆,王琪, 王春乙,等.东北地区玉米低温冷害气候和经济损失风险分区.地理研究,2008,1169~1177.
[15] 那伟,刘继生.辽源市经济系统的脆弱性及其规避措施研究.地理科学,2009,29(5):666~672.
[16] Turner II B L,Kasperson R E,Matsone P A,et al.A frame work for vunlnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNAS,2003,100(14):8074~8079.
[17] 马树庆,王琪,袭祝香.东北玉米低温冷害风险评估研究.自然灾害学报,2003,12(3):137~141.
[18] 王馥棠,刘文权.黄土高原农业生产气候脆弱性的初步研究.气候与环境研究,2003,8(1):91~98.
[19] 赵越龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究.地理科学,1998,18(1):73~79.
[20] 商彦蕊.河北省农业旱灾脆弱性动态变化的成因分析.自然灾害学报,2000, 9(1):40~46.
[21] 马树庆,王琪.2009年吉林省农业气象灾害及其对粮食生产的影响.吉林农业科学,2010,35(1):49~52.
[22] 葛全胜,王绍武、方修琦.气候变化研究中若干不确定性的认识.地理研究,2010,29(2):189~190.
