研究对外贸易对我国碳排放的影响,可以分清我国碳排放的来源,有利于我国合理制定碳减排政策和科学应对全球气候变化问题。当前有关国际贸易中隐含碳排放的研究大多没有处理好加工贸易这一重要因素。本文在理清区域间相互贸易中隐含碳排放的复杂关系基础上利用非竞争型投入产出表模型,构建了两区域产业能源活动碳排放联系模型,将直接排放分解为消费、投资、出口三大最终需求的完全排放,并将进口避免的国内排放分解为进口消费、进口投资、加工贸易等部分,最终明晰了区域间贸易产生的隐含碳排放转移问题,并以中国为例进行计算说明。结论认为:中国出口加工导向型的经济结构和基础原材料工业比例偏高的产业结构特点,是中国碳排放迅速增加的主要因素。特别是在加入WTO以后,中国对外贸易导致的净出口碳占中国碳排放总量的四分之一强。
The global greenhouse effect may be one of the greatest challenges ever to face humankind. Policies in the developed countries aimed at the reduction of nationally produced CO2 emissions may result in the relocation of emission intensive industries into poor countries with less stringent policies. This relocation often not only leads to a simple relocation of emissions, but to an absolutely increase of emissions due to a less advanced technology in the poor countries and the failure of global greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. To overcome this difficulty, based on input-output technology, consumption-based approach to account for all the emissions attributable to the final activities of a country has been widely employed. China has been the 1st place of CO2 emissions in the world. Behind the rapid increase of CO2 emissions in China, there is the fast expansion of foreign trade in China. The study on relationship between trade and CO2 emissions could help the government understand the origin sources of CO2 emissions and make better CO2 emissions reduction policies to respond global climate change. On the basis of non-competitive input-output models, this article sets up a relationship model about CO2 emissions of anthrop industrial activities between two regions in the way of decomposing the economic activities into exporting, importing, consumption and investment. Then the authors calculates the CO2 emissions induced by consumption, investment, export and import of China respectively. The conclusion is that the augment of export and the improper export structure are the main reason of rapid increase of gross CO2 emissions in China. Especially, after China entry into the WTO, the CO2 emissions induced by net export account for a quarter of Chinese gross CO2 emissions. So it is the efficient way as well as the key task to change the export structure, expedite the high energy-using industries international transfer, and promote the industrial technology and add-value of export products.
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