基于气象、烟叶化学成分含量的大样本数据,通过完善烤烟种植气候适宜性定量评价指标体系,构建气象条件对烟叶品质影响的定量评判标准,在精细化模拟推算基本气象要素地理空间分布的基础上,应用GIS技术实现了烤烟种植气候的动态分区评估。以云南省两个典型气候年份为例,在GIS平台下将统计模型推算与空间插值技术方法有机结合,尝试突破传统"空间静态性"作物气候区划,实现"空间+时间动态性"作物种植气候精细化分区评估;直观形象地展现了区域地理"面"气候年际波动变化及其对烤烟种植适宜性和烟叶品质的影响。两种动态分区评估相结合,增强了烤烟气候区划的生产实用指导性,对提高气候区划研究和促进气象服务精细化有科学参考价值。

The research mainly focuses on improving the effect of crop-climate regionalization and promoting perfect meteorological service. Based on a large sample of metorological data and chemical composition contents of tobacco leaf, the dynamic climate zoning evaluation of tobacco planting was accomplished by improving quantificational estimate criterion about climatic suitability in tobacco planting, constituting qualificationally-graded evaluation criteria about the effects of meteorological condition on tobacco ingredients, subtly simulating and calculating the geographical distribution of essential meteorological elements with the support of GIS software. With a view to speaking concisely and clearly, two typical years with different climates were taken as examples to demonstrate the two refined dynamic regionalization estimates considering mainly the temporal and spatial changes of meteorological conditions. On one hand, the paper carried out climate-suitability zoning evaluation, in which the proportion of each suitability-grade subarea for the two typical years was compared with the zoning results of the climatic mean in Yunnan. On the other hand, the zoning maps of the relative change grades for two chemical ingredients of tobacco between the two typical years were given. Here, just to speak the results of the climate-suitability zoning: in comparison with 1994, the most appropriate area for tobacco-planting climate in 2008 was decreased by 40.1% and fitting zoning area was reduced by 21.7%, but the second suitable zoning area was increased by 1.9% and not-suitable zoning area increased by 35.6%. These analytical results were based on the fact that the illumination condition during later period of tobacco growing season in 1994 was much better than that in 2008. As a whole, the results of both of the two divisional methods were consistent with the routine analytical results based on data from representative stations of tobacco-planting areas. The paper showed the climatic characteristics of the two typical years in different regions and their influences on tobacco-planting suitability and tobacco quality. By combining two dynamic regionalization evaluations together, it provided some guides to the tobacco production in Yunnan and was helpful to further studies on crop-climate regionalization and meteorological service.