借用城市地理学研究中较成熟的首位分布和位序—规模分布理论,采用标准差、变差系数、首位度、赫芬达尔系数等指标,对1999~2009年安徽省17个城市国内旅游收入数据进行分析。研究发现:旅游发展总体不均衡;安徽省城市旅游规模首位度小,分散分布明显;高位序城市旅游规模近年相对集中。通过对数据进行位序规模的回归分析:发现安徽省城市旅游符合位序规模分布,旅游规模位序变化呈现两种态势四种类型,即平稳发展和徘徊发展态势,具体为高位序平稳发展型和低位序平稳发展型,徘徊发展"M"型和徘徊发展"W"型。究其原因主要有资源、城市经济和区位交通等因素。安徽省城市旅游规模分布受主导因素影响明显,少有城市旅游多年位序表现单边上升或下降趋势,城市旅游规模发展相对不成熟。研究为地方旅游发展战略决策提供参考。

Based on the theory of primate city distribution and rank-size distribution which have been frequently used in urban geography, this paper makes an analysis of tourism revenue from domestic tourism in 17 cities of Anhui Province from 1999 to 2009. The paper analyzes the difference of tourism size among the cities in this province with four criteria consisting of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, primacy ratio and Herfindahi Index. The result shows that the tourism development is unbalanced and that the absolute difference of the urban tourism scale is expanding. However, the relative difference is reducing; the urban tourism primacy ratio is smaller; the tourism size of higher order cities is concentrated in recent years. Through regression analysis of the data of rank-size, the paper indicates that the tourism size of cities in Anhui Province presents a rank-size distribution. The change of the tourism size and rank shows two forms and four types. Two forms are balanced-development and wandered-development. Four types are higher order balanced-development, lower order balanced-development, wandered-development "M" type and wandered-development "W" type. Based on this judgment, the paper studies some factors including resource, urban economy, location and traffic. The tourism size distribution is controlled obviously by single factor. Tourism of rank over years in few cities displays a unilateral upward or downward trend, which indicates that the tourism development is relatively immature in Anhui Province. The purpose of the study is to provide reference for a strategic decision on the local tourism development.