本文分析了2008年北京市就业密度空间分布的现状结构,并运用非参数局部回归的方法模拟了2004年和2008年北京市的就业密度曲线,进而分析北京市就业密度分布的空间特征。研究表明:从就业密度的角度,2004年~2008年间,在城市规划的引导作用下,尽管城市单中心结构仍然突出,经济空间结构已经开始出现多中心发展的雏形。其中制造业就业密度呈现出非常显著的郊区化特征,而第三产业则持续地向城市中心区高度聚集。综合来看,单中心集聚力量的延续对未来北京市发展将有可能造成进一步的困扰,如中心城过度拥挤、职住分离、交通压力加大等,建议通过政策手段加快布局调整,进一步培育具有一定规模和集聚能力的郊区次中心,构建"多中心、网络化"的空间结构。
Based on the analysis of the 2004 and 2008 economic census data, using Arcgis and locally weighted regression, this article tried to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of employment density in Beijing city. We found that, the polycentric pattern of Beijing employment spatial structure has become more and more clear, however the central city is still very powerful in attracting the significant spatial concentration of employment. Compared with the suburbanization of manufacturing, the concentration in central city of service employment is increasingly significant. Based on the analysis, we can draw some conclusions. Firstly, the city planning has been playing a very important role in the formation of polycentric employment spatial structure, however it has not embodied the basic intent of 'population decentralization'. Therefore we should go on speeding up the construction of polycentric structure. Secondly, although new developing areas have acted on industrial decentralization, they are not the suburban centers with large scale and good function. We should enhance the development of suburban centers to solve urban problems. Thirdly, from the regional perspective, we should promote the formation of regional networking spatial structures.
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