定量测度能源消费的生态环境影响是区域可持续发展评价的重要内容。以化石燃料燃烧-CO2排放-地表吸收的碳循环过程为研究对象,对现有模型的土地碳吸收能力测算等方面进行了修正,构建了基于净初级生产力的能源足迹改进模型,分析了1994~2008年的吉林省能源足迹及其各土地利用类型供给变化,并通过生态效应指数计算揭示了土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对能源足迹的影响,在此基础上建立了LUCC约束下的能源足迹系统动力学预测模型,预测了未来15年的吉林省能源足迹变化情景。结果表明:1994~2008年,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.228 hm2增至0.524 hm2,总体增长较快,林地、耕地、草地是供给主体,草地退化成为2003年以来除消费量因素外能源足迹增长加快的首要原因;2009~2023年,在温和可控、基本可控、风险可控3种情景下,人均能源足迹年均分别增长6.36%、10.73%、11.43%,LUCC的生态负效应是主要驱动力之一。对此建议加强吉林省自然植被特别是西部草地保护,以提升区域综合碳吸收功能。研究表明,改进能源足迹较好地克服了现有模型评价结果过于简化和悲观的缺陷,能更真实、全面地反映能源消费的生态环境影响。
Quantitatively measuring the eco-environmental impacts of energy consumption is an important issue for regional sustainable development evaluation. Taking the carbon cycling process of fossil fuel combustion - carbon dioxide emission - land absorption as the research object, some contents of traditional model such as calculation of land carbon absorption capacity are modified by establishing an energy ecological footprint (EEF) model based on net primary productivity. With Jilin Province as an example, the dynamics of EEF and its each land use type supply from 1994 to 2008 are analyzed by using the modified model, and then the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on EEF are revealed by calculating ecological effect index. Furthermore, a system dynamic prediction model under the restriction of LUCC is proposed and used to predict the scenarios of EEF defined as three types in the next 15 years. The results show that, during 1994-2008, the EEF per capita of Jilin Province, of which forest, cropland and grassland are the main part, increases from 0.228 hm2 to 0.524 hm2, indicating a fast rate, while the grassland degradation has become the primary cause of faster increase in EEF besides the factor of energy consumption since 2003. During 2009-2023, the average annual growth rate of EEF per capita will be 6.36%, 10.73% and 11.43% under the scenarios of low growth, medium growth and high growth, respectively. Meanwhile, the negative ecological effects of LUCC will become one of the main driving forces of the increase in EEF. In view of this, more efforts on natural vegetation especially on the western grassland protection should be made to strengthen the regional comprehensive carbon capability. Compared with the traditional model, the modified model could overcome the defects of excessive simplification and pessimism in evaluation results, which can reflect the eco-environmental impacts of energy consumption more factually and roundly.
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