为探明气候变化对商丘地区冬小麦产量的影响,根据1991～2010商丘市气候资料和小麦产量资料,利用数学统计与Thornthwaite Memoriae模型,结合未来气候预测结果定量分析了气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明,冬小麦产量整体上呈波动上升趋势;主成分分析表明,气温、降水量、蒸发量与极端温度为影响冬小麦产量的主要气候因子,蒸发量过大及极端低温对冬小麦生产不利。商丘地区"暖湿型"气候有利于冬小麦生产力的提高,"冷干型"气候对冬小麦生产最为不利;未来几十年内气候可能将向"暖湿型"变化,对商丘地区粮食作物产量的提升较为有利。
Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production.Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming planning,mostly on how to enhance the yileds of winter wheat,across the world.Owing to the fundamental importance of food to human welfare and of climate to crop and livestock production,various investigations showed that agriculture has been a focus of research on the impacts of climate change on wheat yield.However,considering the recent investigations in the field of the impacts of climate change on wheat yield,many studies were focused on the climate change in large scale regions.Few studies have been done with respect to the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in small scale regions.Therefore,in order to determine the effects of the climate changes on winter wheat yields in the Central Plains,taking Shangqiu,Henan as a study area,the climate data and wheat yields of observation stations from 1991 to 2010 were used in analyses with principal component analysis,correlation analysis,multiple linear regression analysis and Thornthwaite Memoriae model.The prediction results in the future and possible increase extent of the climate productivity of winter wheat were discovered.The results showed that winter wheat yields increased with fluctuations in recent 20 years.The results of principal component analysis illustrated that the main factors affecting winter wheat yields were temperature,precipitation,evaporation and extreme temperature.Excessive evaporation and extreme low temperature had adverse effects on the winter wheat production.The warm-wet climate was beneficial to wheat production,while the cold-dry climate was detrimental to wheat production.In the future decades,the climate variation will present a warm-wet tendency,which could be favorable to the grain yields in the Central Plains,especially in Shangqiu.
[1] 叶笃正,符淙斌,董文杰。全球变化科学进展与未来趋势。地球科学进展,2002,17(4):467～469.
[2] 何凡能,李珂,刘浩龙。历时时期气候变化对中国古代农业影响研究的若干进展。地理研究,2010,29(12):2289～2296.
[3] 张强,邓振镛,赵映东。全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响。生态学报,2008,28(3):1210～1218.
[4] 缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇。气候变暖对中国亚热带北界位置的影响。地理研究,2009,28(3):634～642.
[5] 秦大河,王苏民,林而达,等。中国西部环境演变评估(第三卷).北京:科学出版社,2002.1～22.
[6] 秦大河。气候变化的事实与影响对策。中国科学基金,2003,17(1):1～3.
[7] Wang F T.Impacts of climate change on cropping system and its implication for China.Acta Meterologica Sinica, 1997,11(4):407～415.
[8] Thomas A.Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China.Global and Planetary Change,2008,60(3-4):306～326.
[9] Matthews R B,Wassmann R.Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production:A review.European Journal of Agronomy,2003,19(4):573～598.
[10] Tao F,Yokozawa M,Xu Y,et al.Climate change and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China,1981 ～2000.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2006,138(1-4):82～92.
[11] Wu D,Yu Q,Lu C,et al.Quantifying production potentials of winter wheat in the North China Plain.European Journal of Agronomy,2006,24(3):226～235.
[12] Xiong W,Matthews R,Holman I,et al.Modelling China's potential maize production at regional scale under climate change.Climatic Change,2007,85(3-4):433～445.
[13] 邓振镛,王强,张强,等。中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施。生态学报,2010,30(22):6278～6288.
[14] 蒲金涌,姚小英,王位泰。气候变化对甘肃省冬小麦气候适宜性的影响。地理研究,2011,30(1):153～160.
[15] Wang F T.Some advances in climate warming impact research in China.Acta Meterologica Sinica,2001,15(4):498～508.
[16] 林而达,张厚宣,王京华。全球气候变化对中国农业影响的模拟。北京:中国农业科技出版社,1997.61～68.
[17] 茆长宝,陈勇。南京市近60年气候变化及其对冬小麦产量影响。资源科学,2010,32(10):1955～1962.
[18] 刘文平,郭慕萍,安炜。气候变化对山西省冬小麦种植的影响。干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(11):88～93.
[19] 李彤霄,赵国强,李有。河南省气候变化及其对冬小麦越冬期的影响。中国农业气象,2009,30(2):143～146.
[20] 张明捷,王运行,赵桂芳,等。濮阳冬小麦生育期气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响。中国农业气象,2009,30 (2):223～229.
[21] Polley H W.Implications of atmospheric and climate change for crop yield and water use efficiency.Crop Science, 2002,42(1):131～140.
[22] Baker J T.Yield responses of southern US rice cultivars to CO2and temperature.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2004,122(3-4):129～137.
[23] Bannayan M,Lotfabadi S S,Sanjani S,et al.Effects of precipitation and temperature on crop production variability in northeast Iran.International Journal of Biometeorology,2011,55(3):387～401.
[24] Wang RY,Zhang Q,Wang YL,et al.Response of corn to climate warming in arid areas in Northwest China.Acta Botanica Sinica,2004,46(12):1387～1392.
[25] 赵鸿,肖国举,王润元,等。气候变化对半干旱雨养农业区春小麦生长的影响。地球科学进展,2007,22(3):93～98.
[26] 闫军辉,延军平,曹小星,等。气候变化对粮食产量影响定量分析-以西安市为例。干旱区资源与环境, 2010,24(12):117～120.
[27] Liu Yujie,Yuan Guofu.Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth in Panzhuang irrigation district,Shandong Province.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(6):861～875.
[28] 张海萍,陈利顶,王晓燕,等。气候波动对海伦市粮食产量影响的风险分析。中国生态农业学报,2010,18(6):1345～1350.
[29] Yao F,Xu Y,Lin E,et al.Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Climatic Change,2007,80(3-4):395～409.
[30] 姚玉璧,李耀辉,王毅荣,等。黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应。干旱地区农业研究,2005, 23(2):202～208.
[31] Viketoft M,Sohlenius B.Soil nematode populations in a grassland plant diversity experiment run for seven years. Applied Soil Ecology,2011,48(2):174～184.
[32] 河南省农业科学院小麦研究中心。河南省小麦品种试验汇总。郑州:河南省种子管理站,2010.92～94.
[33] 周阳,何中虎,陈新民,等。30余年来北部冬麦区小麦品种产量改良遗传进展。作物学报,2007,33(9):1530～1535.
[34] 秦大河,丁一汇,苏纪兰,等。中国气候与环境演变评估(I):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势。气候变化研究进 展,2005,1(1):4～9.
