安徽池州市是国家首个生态经济示范区,近十年来,城镇化、工业化水平的快速提升加剧了其发展的风险性和不稳定性,可持续发展面临较大挑战。基于生态足迹模型,对池州市2001～2010年生态足迹供给与需求进行了时间序列测度与分析,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对2015年、2020年人均生态足迹进行了预测。结果表明:池州市人均生态足迹由2001年的1.2458hm²/人上升至2010年的2.2483hm²/人,年平均增长11.14%,人均生态赤字由0.8445hm²/人扩大至2010年的1.8266hm²/人;居民消费水平、能源消费量与人均生态足迹相关系数分别为0.844、0.945,为生态足迹驱动因素;研究时段内,能源生态足迹年均增长速度为83.75%,明显快于生物资源生态足迹增长速度;万元GDP生态足迹由2001年的2.98hm²/万元下降至2010年的1.20hm²/万元。预测2015年人均生态足迹为3.2336hm²/人,生态赤字将增至2.7926hm²/人;2020年人均生态足迹为4.4896hm²/人,生态赤字将扩大到4.0308hm²/人。针对池州生态不安全的现状,从减少能源消费、改变消费方式、提高农作物单产等方面提出了减少生态足迹的政策建议。

Chizhou is the first eco-economy demonstration area in Anhui Province.The rapid growth of national economy has aggravated the fragility and instability of the urban development in recent years,hence there are more chances and challenges for sustainable economic development.Based on analytical method of ecological footprint,we measured time sequence of ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Chizhou city from 2001 to 2010.Using GM,the eco-footprint per capita in 2015 and 2020 is predicted.The investigation shows that eco-footprint per capita of the city increased from 1.2458 hm² to 2.2483 hm²,an annual rate of 11.14%,and the eco-deficit per capita increased from 0.8445 hm² to 1.8266 hm².The correlation coefficient between the consumption level of residents and eco-footprint per capita is about 0.844,and the correlation coefficient between the energy consumption and eco-footprint per capita is about 0.945,so the consumption level of residents and energy consumption are factors affecting eco-footprint.Energy ecological footprint has been increasing consecutively at an annual rate of 83.75%,which even surpassed the growth rates of biological footprint.Eco-footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP decreased from 2.98 hm² in 2001 to 1.20 hm² in 2010.This paper predicts that by the year 2015,the eco-footprint per capita will be 3.2336 hm²,and the ecological deficit per capita will be increased to 2.7926 hm².By the year 2020,the eco-footprint per capita will be 4.4896 hm²,and the ecological deficit per capita will increase to 4.0308 hm².Considering the unstable eco-situation in Chizhou,we propose several measures to reduce eco-footprint,including decreasing energy consumption,developing eco-tourism,changing people's consumption style,and raising crop yields.