以甘肃省平凉市崆峒区生态农业系统为例,基于农业产业链的物质、能量流动机理,运用Vensim软件建立生态农业系统动力学分析模型(EA-SD)。量化分析和模拟了生态农业发展的综合效益及其演变趋势。经模拟,按照现在的发展模式不变,系统不但存在牛粪尿污染等负效应,而且随着肉牛年屠宰量的快速上涨,未来崆峒区可能出现肉牛数量锐减,制沼产业、有机农业衰落,整个系统难以持续发展的情况。根据模拟结果,论文制定了系统优化调控政策,并模拟了优化后系统的发展情景。结果显示,优化能够消除系统缺陷和负效应,提升综合正效应,增强系统的可持续发展能力。本研究的模型及调控过程能够为类似的生态经济系统优化研究提供借鉴和参考。

Based on the material and energy flow in the ecological agriculture system in Kongtong District,we built the "EA-SD" model for the ecological agriculture.We quantitatively analyzed and simulated the social,economic and ecological effects such as energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction effects and the evolution trends of the ecological agriculture system in Kongtong District.Simulation results showed,under the current development mode,with the rapid increase of the annual slaughter amount of cattle,in the future the cattle number may drop sharply,the CO₂ emissions and fossil energy consumption may increase,the organic agriculture may decline,and the whole system may be difficult to develop sustainably.Simultaneously,there are also some negative effects of economy and ecology.According to the simulation,we developed some optimization policies and simulated the development scenarios under the optimized mode.It is concluded that the system optimization can enhance the comprehensive positive effects and sustainable development capacity of the system.In this study,the model and the optimization process can provide some reference for similar studies of ecological economy.