基于城市经济学的一般理论,从市场机制下的供给方视角出发,提出了预测大都市区住房建设区位选择的一个新模型,并利用2005～2009年北京市新增住宅项目的抽样空间数据进行了实证研究,进而应用阻力面模型模拟了北京市未来住宅建设用地开发压力和城市扩张的空间格局。研究表明:北京市的新增住房用地区位选择总体上符合单中心同心圆的基本模型,但正在逐渐向等级制特征下的多中心格局演化,北部、西北部区县的中心城区以及南部新城、新开发区周边更有可能成为潜在的下一轮住宅建设核心区,从而成为城市扩张的重点区域。

This paper proposed a new model of housing development location choice of metropolises based on classic urban economics theory.From the perspective of suppliers,the model took the current housing development projects as sources and the housing construction suitability as resistance surface,and simulated the future housing development pressure through Minimum Cumulative Resistance(MCR) analysis.The paper also conducted an empirical study using housing development data of Beijing municipality from 2005 to 2009.Results show that the spatial pattern of housing development in Beijing is evolving from a monocentric structure to a polycentric and hierarchical one.The preferred location of next round of housing development includes the center town of northern and northwestern districts,new towns in the southern city,and regions around economic development areas.These locations are therefore remarked to have a relatively high urban sprawl pressure.