通过空间分析的Global Moran's I指数和Getis-Ord G_i^*指数以及协调发展度函数选取1995年、2000年、2005年和2008年4个年份数据对天山北坡城镇化进程中的土地资源效益、水资源效益的集聚扩散状态及其冷热点空间格局演化与空间联动发展效应进行分析,研究发现:(1)天山北坡在绿洲自然地理格局下发育起来的城镇,受自然地理条件和水土资源分布特点及城镇发展水平不一、城镇性质各异而对水土资源利用程度不一等因素影响,其城镇化水平和水土资源效益的空间格局表现出不同的发展状态。(2)土地资源效益相似的县市具有明显的空间差异,呈现出分散的格局并保持相对稳定的态势。(3)水资源效益的空间集聚和扩散状态不稳定,变化显著。(4)水土资源效益在城镇化进程中各自的空间演化格局与路径迥异,区域联动效应差异显著。绿洲城镇发展的实际决定了水土资源效益的冷热点区域演化相比自身发展水平更具敏感性。

Through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and its Global Moran's I index and Getis-Ord G_i^* index,and coordinatied development degree function land & water resources benefit and urbanization level from 1995 to 2008 are analyzed systematically.Especially,the paper focused on agglomeration diffusion condition,its spatial pattern evolution and space linkage development effect of cold and hot spots.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.Due to differences in oasis natural and geographical conditions,the spatio-temporal variations of urbanization and land & water resources benefit of north slope of Tianshan Mountains are different.(1) Counties with similar land use benefits show obvious spatial differentiation.The spatial structures in different years present dispersed pattern and keep stable constantly.(2) Agglomeration and dispersion of water resources benefits are not stable.Differences of changes are significant during the study years.(3) The pattern and path of spatio-temporal variation of urbanization and land & water resources benefits are different.Space linkage development effects are obviously different.Specific circumstances of development of oasis cities determine the spatial evolution of cold and hot spots of urbanization and land & water resources benefits are more sensitive than the development level themselves.