AN APPLICATION OF TURNING POINTS AND RUNS TO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND PREDITION

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  • Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University

Received date: 1986-02-07

  Online published: 1986-09-15

Abstract

In this paper, flood/drought runs combined with tunaing points were called flood/drought run-turning points. Consider the flood/drought run-turning points in the historical flood/drought records of the last 500 years as recurrent events.Then, the theory of recurrent events may be applied to the historical records for climatic analysis. Now, let F be flood year with probability P, while D the drought year with probability q. If ε+=FFF-FD,then thecri-tical point between F and D is called the positive run-turning point, while the critical point between D and F is called the negative run-turning point, if ε-=DDD-DF. Let fn(+)=p (ε+ occurs for the first time at thenth trial) and fn(-)=p (ε- occurs for the first time at thenth trial) for n>1 with f0(±)=0. Then, mean and variance of the run-turning times were derived by means of generating function, and the calculated results of these parameters at different stations are likely useful in climatic analysis.

Cite this article

Yao Zhensheng(C. S. Yao) . AN APPLICATION OF TURNING POINTS AND RUNS TO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND PREDITION[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 1986 , 5(3) : 1 -11 . DOI: 10.11821/yj1986030001

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