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GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH >

2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 10: 1846 - 1856

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlyj201610004

Articles

The impacts of information channels on moving space:A case study on Nanjing

  • QIN Xiao ,
  • ZHEN Feng
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  • Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

Received date: 2016-03-20

  Request revised date: 2016-07-26

  Online published: 2016-10-26

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《地理研究》编辑部
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Abstract

According to the theories of housing search space and anchor point, Internet channels (e.g., housing websites, real estate agents) can provide more housing information (e.g., prices, locations, styles, years, facilities) than traditional channels (e.g., newspaper, TV, advertisements, introduction from friends or relatives) to reduce limitations of previous houses where movers have higher flexibility to choose their new houses to extend search spaces in their moving processes. However, the previous studies usually focused on some factors of residential mobility including housing price, transport, household composition, lifestyle, service facility, neighbourhood environment, employment opportunity, rather than ICT (telecommuting and information channel). Meanwhile, compared with studies on relationships between telecommuting and residential mobility (telecommuters are more likely to make longer moving distance or move into suburban areas because of flexible ways of working, which can reduce limitations of workplace in the moving processes), few scholars have paid their attention to the impacts of information channels on residents' moving space. This paper collected data from the survey of residential mobility in Nanjing city. It mainly used 3D Kernel density analysis to simulate space-time characteristics of different information channel users, and also Multinomial Logistic Regression to demonstrate the impacts of information channel on moving space. Three consequences were found by the above analyses. Firstly, males, young persons, and high-educated and high-income individuals preferred to use Internet channels to collect housing information. Secondly, Internet channel has become the most popular tool for residential mobility to obtain housing information in recent years compared to usage of traditional channels in the earlier times. Finally, more importantly, the Internet channel users were likely to make longer moving distance than the traditional channel users because of more and detailed housing information obtained from websites and real estate agents. On the one hand, these findings can enrich the present studies in the impacts of ICT on moving space in which internet channels take a directive role in the expansion of moving space as well as telecommuting. On the other hand, they are useful to housing information management (e.g., sharing platform building of urban housing information for reducing the "digital divide" among different groups) and housing spatial planning for urban governments (e.g., optimization of urban housing space, especially the one in suburban areas).

Key words： Internet channels; traditional channels; moving space; Nanjing

Cite this article

QIN Xiao , ZHEN Feng . The impacts of information channels on moving space:A case study on Nanjing[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016 , 35(10) : 1846 -1856 . DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201610004

1 引言

当前,信息通信技术（Information Communication and Technology, ICT）已经渗透到政府管理、企业生产及居民生活等各个领域。高水平的ICT使用能够改变城市的活动,并促进了不同城市之间或同一城市内部人口、商品、知识、技术和资本的快速移动[1,2]。这一过程中,时间、空间及其相互关系都会发生新的变化,流空间将成为区域、城市以及居民活动的主要载体[1],且受居民活动日益变化的影响而产生更大的流动弹性。Mokhtarian等认为,ICT对居民活动的影响主要是通过迁居选择、工作安排和娱乐活动三个方面来表征[3]。其中,迁居活动是ICT作用的重点领域,通过影响居民的生活方式和信息水平,越来越多的家庭开始在城市内部或城市间迁移[4-6]。一般来讲,住房价格、交通状况、家庭结构或生命周期、邻里环境及就业机会等被认为是驱动居民迁居的主要传统因素[7-15]。然而,ICT的出现和广泛使用,一方面居民可以通过互联网实现在家办公,从而增加了其住房选择的弹性[5,16];另一方面,居民能够通过互联网搜索大量有关空置房屋的信息（如价格、户型、房龄、服务设施、区位等）,减少了住房选择的信息限制[17]。由此可见,不同于传统动机性因子,ICT能够通过改变居住迁移的过程或方式而促进住房空间的变化。
理论上来讲,学者已经证明了远程办公者比正常通勤者产生更远的搬迁距离,即他们更倾向于居住在远离城市中心的区域[5,18-20],从而加剧了城市居住空间的分散[4,6,18]。但是,很少有研究关注信息渠道的选择（如房产网站、中介、报纸及广告、亲戚朋友介绍等）与居住迁移之间的关系和空间效应。仅有的研究也只是关注不同信息渠道的选择及其对居民住房搜寻的影响。他们认为,相对于其他渠道,迁居者更倾向于使用互联网络搜寻住房信息,减少了信息获取障碍、导致更大的搜寻范围[17,21-23]。然而,ICT在住房搜寻过程中的使用是否带来了居住空间变化并不清晰,缺乏必要的实证研究。同时,1978年改革开放以来,中国不断推进向社会主义市场经济转轨步伐,集中在土地使用制度和住房分配制度的改革,大大提高了城市居民的择居能力。出于对住房环境和家庭需求的考虑,越来越多的城市居民开始脱离单位分配住房,并根据市场机制和自身条件进行较为理性的迁居。特别是20世纪80年代以后,受城市大规模的旧城改造、新开发区建设、外来人口集聚等影响,迁居活动已经成为城市生活的普遍现象[13]。因此,理清信息技术在具有高住房流动性的中国城市空间中的作用,对于信息时代城市居住空间规划、建设及管理具有较大的意义,符合新型城镇化发展战略的内在要求。

2 搜寻空间理论与信息渠道

住房搜寻是居住迁移的第一步。在访问空置房屋之前,购房者必须通过各种信息渠道进行搜索和选择有意向的住房[17]。地理学通常将信息渠道选择对住房搜寻行为的影响称为“意识空间”或“搜寻空间”[24,25],且可以用“锚点理论”和“距离衰减规律”进行解释。Huff认为,相对于工作地、学校、商业中心、医院、公交或地铁车站等,家在居民迁居过程中起着关键的作用,也是最重要的“锚点”[26]。即新空置房屋与居民当前住房距离越远,其被居民搜索和访问的可能性越小。因为居民倾向于搜索靠近当前住房的区域来保持其现有的生活模式、公共服务、社会交往及通勤成本等[27-29]。同时,由于自身对住房信息掌控的限制性,居民访问一个具体空置住房的可能性会随着与其当前生活区域距离的增加而减小[26,30-33]。换句话说,住房信息在迁居过程中起着重要的作用[21],当家庭决定搬迁时,寻找与当前居住条件相似的邻里环境和发现空置房屋都与居民对住房信息的掌控程度有密切关系。
在前信息化时代,居民主要是从报纸、广告或宣传单、亲戚朋友的介绍及房产中介等渠道获取住房信息。Brown等指出报纸和广告提供了在较大区域内的低质量和不完全的住房信息,亲戚朋友介绍则提供了在较小范围内的详细和可靠的信息[34]。房产中介通常会向购房者介绍其周边邻里空置房信息,较少了解较远区域的房源[21,35]。学者研究表明,尽管报纸和广告会提供一定数量可用的住房信息,但是居民更信赖亲戚朋友介绍和中介信息获取渠道,其搜寻空间也受到了信息不完全的限制[17,21,35-38]。自从ICT的出现,住房信息获取渠道发生了很大变化,并深刻影响着居民搜寻空间。一方面,居民可以直接从各类房产网站直接获取大量、全面、实时更新、低成本、可反馈的住房信息[21]。另一方面,房产中介也将互联网技术运用于其日常的经营和管理中,并提供给购房者更多的信息服务[39,40]。Chen等证实美国互联网的使用鼓励购房者搜寻远离他们上一个搜寻地点的住房,但是亲戚朋友介绍和其他渠道对搜寻空间并没有显著影响[22,23]。可以看出,住房信息获取技术的进步能够有效减少信息障碍和距离限制,改变购买者的动机和倾向,增加搜寻的弹性和强度,扩大了搜寻空间[17,21,40,41]。
但是,现有的研究注重迁居过程中信息渠道的选择及其对搜寻空间的影响,较少探讨信息渠道和居民迁居空间（最终住房选择空间）的关系,因此很难判定ICT影响下的城市居住空间的发展趋势。仅有的代表性研究是2001年Palm等在《城市地理杂志》（Journal of Urban Geography）上发表的“居住迁移：互联网站信息对住房搜寻过程和空间选择模式的影响”。他们随机选择了美国Wake县1200个家庭样本,以迁居距离作为衡量迁居空间变化的指标,并借助统计分析发现：网站使用者并没有比非网站使用者（包括,房产中介、报纸、广告、亲戚朋友介绍）产生更远的平均迁居距离[21]。这与搜寻空间理论并不一致,即扩大了的搜寻空间更容易促进远距离迁移活动的产生。可能是因为,2001年美国迁居者相对较低的ICT使用水平（使用覆盖率和网站信息服务种类）。同时,他们也忽视了互联网在房产中介日常运营中的应用。依据搜寻空间理论,试图利用多变量分析方法来研究ICT快速发展和人口流动加速的中国城市迁居空间情况,并建立如下假设：信息渠道显著影响居民迁居距离,网络渠道使用者比传统渠道使用者更倾向于产生较远迁居距离。

3 研究区概况与数据来源

南京是长江三角洲城市群的核心城市之一,是典型的多中心等级结构的空间形态。根据《南京市统计年鉴（2013年）》和《南京市2012年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》发布数据,截至2012年底,南京市域总人口816.1万人,建成区面积653.31 km2,城镇化率达到80.23%。其中,城区住房总建筑面积1.5亿m2,人均住房面积超过33 m2,户均拥有住宅约1.2套。“十一五”期间,南京城区约有120万人通过商品房市场改善居住条件,约40万人通过二手房市场解决住房问题。同时,2012年,南京互联网用户数已经达到269.63万户,3G移动手机使用者突破500万个。总体来讲,南京拥有较高的迁居需求和互联网络的使用水平。
数据来源于2012年9-10月对信息时代南京城区居民行为进行的问卷调查,不仅包含迁居信息获取方式、迁居年份、影响迁居的主要因素以及迁居前后的详细居住地址等居民最近一次迁居信息,而且还涉及居民信息设备使用情况、就业情况、交通出行、网络社交等其他方面的居民行为和属性信息。根据空间抽样理论[42,43],在先验知识不丰富的情况下,简单随机抽样的结果较合理;而当有足够先验知识的情况下,进行空间分层抽样能使抽样的样点更具有代表性,反之则越发不精确。通过对国内外文献综述的梳理可知,目前有关信息渠道对居民迁居空间的影响在实证研究中并没有明确的空间规律总结和经验。因此,区别于传统迁居研究中的以选择不同类型或区位的社区进行抽样调查的方式（传统研究已经积累了一定的空间分层先验知识）[13,14],最终选择“随机+空间均衡”的方式进行样本的抽样,即选择在城市和片区主要商圈或大型公园等人流集中的公共场所（如新街口、湖南路、玄武湖公园等）随机发放,从而使得问卷的样本更具代表性。调查范围涵盖了2013年行政区划调整之前南京城区所有次级行政辖区,即鼓楼、玄武、建邺、栖霞、秦淮、白下、下关、雨花、江宁、浦口以及六合11个行政区（图1）。调查共发放1038份问卷,去除因旅游、访亲、商务等事宜的外来人群与20岁以下样本（大部分为学生,没有独立的迁居能力）,收回问卷980份,但是由于一大部分样本缺少搬迁前后详细住房地址（因居民未发生搬迁、不愿意透露或忘记搬迁前后详细居住地址等原因）,最终针对本研究主题的有效样本有147份。
Fig. 1 The administrative division of Nanjing (2012) and the locations of questionnaires

图1 2012年南京市行政区划和问卷发放点分布

4 不同信息渠道使用者的迁居特征

4.1 不同信息渠道使用情况

本次调查的男女性别比例大致平衡,以中青年为主体,大专及以上学历居民占到了总样本的88%,且多数调查居民从事企业生产和公共事业工作。同时,居民主要通过报纸或电视、亲戚朋友介绍、广告或宣传单、中介机构、房产网站、其他（以实地访问为主）六种方式进行住房信息搜索。根据国内外相关文献,可以将居民信息搜索渠道划分为两种类型：传统渠道,报纸或电视、亲戚朋友介绍、广告或宣传单、其他;网路渠道,房产中介机构和房产网站。需要说明,由于64%样本居民（总样本为147个）最近一次迁居发生在2010年及以后,且根据《第27次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》,截至2010年12月,中国中小企业的网络接入率已经达到了92.7%,其中57.2%的企业利用互联网与客户沟通、为客户提供咨询服务。由此可见,本调查样本中涉及的房产中介机构（中小企业）应该属于网络渠道。同时,虽然中介由于其自身的趋利性可能会屏蔽部分房源负面信息,但是从居民搜寻空间角度来讲,其接触到的房源信息还是大大增多了,势必会引起城市迁居空间的变化,且大部分中介访问者在决定购买房屋前也会通过网站搜索途径去修正中介房源信息的真实性。通过对不同属性居民最近一次迁居时信息渠道的使用比例统计（表1）,可以得到如下总体特征：
① 55%的男性选择网络渠道,比例高于44%的女性使用者。因为男性对信息资源的利用意识和掌控能力比女性强,更倾向于从房产网站或中介机构获取全面的住房信息来做出理性选择。② 53%的20~29岁的年轻群体偏好利用网络进行住房搜寻,而超过70%的40岁以上群体依赖于传统渠道的使用。③ ICT对高学历和高收入人群影响较大,表现为学历和收入越高,学习能力越强,利用网络渠道的概率也越大。④ 超过50%的从事与信息处理相关工作的群体（政府机关工作人员、事业单位人员、企业办公人员、自由职业者等）采用网络渠道进行住房搜索,比例高于制造业工人、商业服务人员、农民工、离退休人员等。
总体来看,ICT对不同属性居民的迁居行为影响不同,表现为具有男性、年轻、学历和收入水平较高、企事业办公人员等特征的群体受其影响较大,更容易采用网络渠道来进行住房信息搜寻。
Tab. 1 The percentages of different information channel usages in Nanjing city

表1 南京城区居民不同类型信息渠道使用百分比

属性小类 传统渠道(%) 网络渠道(%)
报纸、电视等 亲戚朋友介绍 广告、宣传单等 其他方式 小计 中介机构 房产信息网站 小计
男性 4 15 4 22 45 25 30 55
女性 7 23 5 21 56 23 22 44
20~29岁 4 19 4 21 47 25 27 53
30~39岁 8 21 4 19 52 22 25 48
40岁以上 10 10 10 41 71 18 11 29
高中/中专及以下 11 32 4 15 62 25 13 38
大专及本科 5 20 4 20 49 23 28 51
研究生及以上 2 13 4 23 41 32 28 59
3000元及以下 6 24 4 31 65 21 14 35
3000~5000元 5 19 5 19 47 23 30 53
5001~8000元 6 9 2 20 37 29 34 63
8000元以上 9 14 2 22 47 26 28 53
政府/事业单位人员 6 19 5 15 45 26 29 55
企业办公人员 5 20 3 15 43 26 31 57
自由职业者 6 21 8 15 50 31 19 50
商业服务人员 4 17 4 30 54 22 24 46
制造业工人 0 75 0 0 75 0 25 25
外出务工人员 14 29 14 0 57 14 29 43
其他 26 10 0 38 74 13 13 26

4.2 迁居时空特征

利用3D核密度工具[44],以147个最近一次搬迁的样本（传统渠道使用者样本55个,网络渠道使用者样本92个）为对象,得到南京居民迁居时空特征。具体来讲,以迁居距离（利用百度地图计算的两个住房地点间的最短路径距离）为横轴,迁居时间为纵轴,迁居样本的密度为z轴来构建时间—距离（t-d）三维坐标体系,并借助ArcGIS中的Spatial Analysis工具和ArcScene展示模块,用颜色深度和曲面高度来判断活动的密度与距离大小（图2）。
Fig. 2 The Kernel density of time-distance of residential mobility in Nanjing city

图2 南京城区居民迁居的时间—距离核密度分析

根据图2a,在本次调研中传统渠道使用者的迁居活动主要发生在2002-2006年和2010-2012年两个时间段,迁居距离大致保持在0~12 km范围内。但是,在2002-2006年时间段居民迁居活动分布密度较高,并在2005年密度达到最高,在1 km迁居距离上达到高峰值6。根据图2b,大部分网络渠道使用者的迁居活动则集中在2010-2012年,迁居距离大致保持在0~15 km范围内。其中,2012年居民分布密度最高,迁居距离跨度较大,并在2 km处出现了密度峰值7。由此可见,南京居民在早期较多使用传统渠道进行住房信息的获取,但是随着ICT技术的广泛普及,网络渠道逐渐成为居民住房信息获取的主要方式。同时,网络渠道使用者在迁居活动密度峰值处的迁居距离比传统渠道使用者更大。

5 信息渠道对使用者迁居空间的影响

根据4.2描述性分析可知,尽管迁居行为发生的年份不同,但是网络渠道使用者在高峰值的迁居距离大于传统渠道使用者。为了进一步分析信息渠道的使用对迁居距离的真实影响,控制城市扩张、住房价格、交通设施、居民属性等传统因子的作用,借助多变量分析模型对两者之间的关系作了进一步研究。由于现有147个样本居民分别在不同年份发生迁居行为（在同一年份发生迁居行为的样本较小）,城市扩张势必会影响居民迁居空间的大小。为了减小由于城市扩张所带来的居民迁居距离扩大的影响,并尽量增加有效样本,最终选择将在2010-2012年三年内发生最近一次迁居行为的94个样本作为分析对象。因为,根据2010-2012年的《中国城市建设统计年鉴》,这三年南京主城建成区面积增长较慢,分别为618.64 km2、637.71 km2、653.31 km2,平均增长率为2.77%（其中,2010-2011年为3.08%,2011-2012年为2.45%,总体增长趋势放缓）,对居民迁居空间的影响不大。

5.1 变量设计与模型选择

在变量设计方面,将迁居距离（居民原住房地点与当前住房地点之间的最短道路网络距离（选择百度地图中两点最短路径））作为因变量,信息渠道使用（网络渠道：房产中介机构和专业房地产网站;传统渠道：报纸、广告和宣传单、亲戚朋友介绍、实地访问等其他方式;混合渠道：网络和传统渠道）作为自变量。此外,结合已有迁居研究,选择远程办公水平（高：每周10次以上;中：每周5~10次;低：每周5次以下）、主要通勤方式（私家车;非机动车：步行、自行车;公共交通：公共汽车、出租车、地铁）、住房价格（利用南京市住房消费价格指数将不同样本不同迁居年份的房价统一转换成2012年的房价）、房屋拥有权（自有房屋、租赁房屋）、年龄、性别、教育水平（高：大学及以上;低：高中及以下）、收入水平（3000元及以下,3000~5000元,5001~8000元,8000元以上）等指标作为控制变量。在模型选择方面,由于迁居距离为连续变量,首先尝试利用多元线性回归进行分析,但模型并没有显著性,说明迁居距离与信息渠道并不具有直接线性关系。因此,考虑使用迁居选择研究中较常使用的方法[22,45,46]——多项式逻辑回归（Multinomial Logistic Regression）。该模型可以分析不同信息渠道使用在不同迁居距离区间内分布的可能性或趋势。

5.2 结果分析

将迁居距离划分为三个区间：0~5 km（含5 km,下同）,5~10 km（含10 km,下同）以及>10 km。其中,>10 km的区间作为多项式逻辑回归的参照项。如表2所示,模型整体的似然比的显著性低于0.1,说明模型变量能够被模型所解释。同时,由于模型样本仅有94个,为了增加模型结果的可信度,对模型结果亦做了鲁棒性检验（总体结果保持稳定）。需要说明,由于住房价格与收入水平共线,所以将收入水平变量移除了模型。
Tab. 2 The results of Multinomial Logistic Regression

表2 多项式逻辑回归结果

自变量 迁居距离
0~5 km（含5 km） 5~10 km（含10 km）
系数 标准差（鲁棒检验） 系数 标准差（鲁棒检验）
信息渠道（参照项：传统渠道）
网络渠道 -2.280*** 0.859 -1.689* 0.900
混合渠道 -1.174 0.928 -3.114** 1.446
远程办公水平（参照项：低水平）
高水平 -1.271* 0.701 0.045 0.868
中水平 -2.122** 0.934 -0.067 1.188
主要通勤方式（参照项：私家车）
非机动车 0.912 1.056 0.483 1.213
公共交通 -0.514 0.809 -0.324 0.827
房价（2012年） -0.049 0.296 0.109 0.293
房屋拥有权（参照项：租住房屋）
自有房屋 -1.661** 0.741 -0.316 0.878
年龄 -0.046 0.338 0.089 0.311
性别（参照项：女性）
男性 0.590 0.633 0.035 0.760
教育水平（参照项：低水平）
高水平 0.228 1.385 -0.723 1.436
截距 3.987** 1.759 2.280 1.851
样本数 94
-2倍对数似然值 154.439
似然比 32.171*

注：模型因变量为迁居距离,参照类为>10 km;*表示显著性<0.1,**表示显著性<0.05,***表示显著性<0.01。

相比于传统渠道,参照>10 km的迁居距离区间,网络渠道在0~5 km和5~10 km迁居距离区间都显示了负影响,即网络渠道使用者拥有更高的可能性迁移到距离其原住房 10 km以外的区域,相反,传统渠道使用者则倾向于在离其原住房较近区域寻找新的住房。正如之前的假设,模型结果证明了网络渠道使用者比传统渠道使用者拥有更远的迁居距离。这是因为,网络可以确保其使用者获取充分的、详细的、覆盖整个城市的新房信息,从而减少了居民获取信息的障碍和原住房对其所带来的空间限制性（根据“锚点”理论,现有熟悉的社区生活环境、公共服务等使得居民愿意在其附近寻找新的住房）。此外,尽管在0~5 km区间内混合渠道相对于传统渠道没有显著性,但在5~10 km区间显示出负相关（混合渠道使用者比传统渠道使用者搬迁更远的距离——>10 km）。一般来讲,混合渠道使用者更容易接收到距离原住房周边5 km范围内的住宅信息（通过广告或宣传单、实地访问等方式）,网络手段更多作为对意向住房详细信息的进一步了解;但是,当混合渠道使用者在超过5 km范围搜寻新房时,网络手段则作为主导方式,传统手段（亲戚朋友介绍、评价等）更多是为了对有意向住房进一步确认,多途径的住房信息来源刺激了迁居距离的扩大。
相对于>10 km的迁居距离区间,远程办公水平在0~5 km区间显示负影响,说明远程办公较多（每周超过5次）居民拥有较大的趋势会居住在远离其原住房超过10 km的范围内。但是,远程办公水平在5~10 km区间没有显著性。许多学者已经证明,在尽量满足其他住房需求下,居民一般会居住在靠近其工作地的区域,从而降低通勤成本。远程办公能够增加住房选择的弹性,减轻工作地点对住房选择的限制。但是,当居民在远离其原住房超过5 km区域搜索住房时,部分学者认为,为了享受中心城区便利的服务设施、靠近客户和工作单位等原因,远程办公者并不一定倾向迁入远离中心城区（南京的就业中心主要为以新街口为核心的中心城区）的远郊区[47-50]。同时,住房拥有权也与远程办公水平对居民迁居距离具有同样的影响。房屋拥有者一般拥有较高的收入水平,在搜索和选择新住房过程中他们拥有更多的住房需求和选择弹性,而租房者一般靠近工作地点居住。因此,在0~5 km迁居距离区间,住房拥有者和租房者拥有较大的差异,拥有住房者更倾向于居住在远离其原住房超过10 km区域;但是,当搜寻距离超过5 km时,工作地点对住房者和拥有住房者的限制会减弱,两者迁居距离表现出的差异并不明显（例如,对于租房者来讲,远离工作地点的房租更便宜;对拥有住房者来讲,郊区的住房价格也相对市中心便宜）。此外,在模型中,主要通勤方式、住房价格、年龄、性别及教育水平对迁居距离没有明显的影响。

6 结论与讨论

ICT的出现和广泛使用,改变了报纸、广告及亲戚朋友介绍等传统住房信息获取渠道。网络为迁居者提供了大量、实时而又全面的住房信息,减小了原有生活环境和信息搜索能力对迁居者的空间限制,增加了居民住房选择弹性。但是,现有的少量研究重点关注信息渠道的选择和搜寻空间的关系,较少涉及网络渠道影响下居民最终迁居时空间的变化。通过对信息时代南京城区居民迁居行为的调查和分析发现以下结论：首先,“男性、年轻化、高学历、高收入”群体或从事与信息相关工作的企事业单位人员更倾向于使用房产网站、中介机构等网络化渠道获取迁居信息,成为了ICT影响的主要群体;其次,在早期居民主要使用传统住房信息获取渠道,而近几年网络渠道越来越受到欢迎,并成为主导的信息获取方式;第三,通过多变量分析,网络渠道使用者比传统渠道使用者更倾向于产生较大迁居距离。
可以看出,与远程办公通过改变居民办公方式来影响居民住房选择相似,网络信息渠道主要是增加了居民在迁居过程中的信息获取数量及种类,支撑居民更弹性地做出迁居决策,扩大了其迁居空间,验证了本文的假设。因此,本文不仅丰富和补充了现有关于ICT对居民迁居行为的影响研究,发现了网络渠道在居民迁居空间扩大中的直接作用,具有一定的学术创新性;还有助于城市住房市场信息共享政策制定（如建立城市房屋信息共享平台和运营机制,减少不同群体间的“数字鸿沟”）和住房规划建设实践（如合理引导城市居住用地布局,特别是郊区住房建设）。
由于部分回收问卷缺少详细搬迁前后住房地址,文中多项式回归模型的分析样本较少,对研究预期具有一定的限制作用。但是,基于空间抽样理论,样本采用了“随机+空间均衡”的方式进行抽取,符合先验不足背景下的空间抽样要求,具有一定的代表性。同时,在控制其他相关变量的前提下,虽然样本较小,模型中的信息渠道变量还显示出了符合预期假设的较强显著性,说明信息渠道是直接影响居民迁居空间的,而非是借助其他因子而产生作用。另一方面,本文的模型虽然考虑到了城市空间扩张、住房价格、交通方式及部分社会经济属性对居民迁居距离的影响,但还缺乏诸如家庭生命周期、邻里环境、公共服务设施等方面因素对模型的更有效控制,这些需要在后期的研究中进行针对性更强的深入研究。此外,每一种具体信息获取渠道（如网站、中介、报纸等）和迁居空间变化之间的关系,以及其研究结论对城市居民空间规划与管理的具体建议,也需要在未来的研究中进一步细化落实。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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[Chai Yanwei, Hu Zhiyong, Wu Zongqing.On characteristics and mechanism of intra-urban residents' migration in Tianjin city, China. Geographical Research, 2000, 19(4): 391-399.]

[14]
史中华, 柴彦威, 刘志林. 深圳市民迁居特征的时空分析. 人文地理, 2000, 15(3): 37-42.城市发展初期，大量域外劳动力迁入城市，促使城市地域迅速扩张。但当城市发展到一定阶段以 后，城市人口的机械增长下降为次要因素，而城市地域内部的人口迁居成为影响城市发展以及内部空间结构变化的主导因素。本文以深圳市民问卷调查所得第一手资 料为基础，通过对市民迁移性、迁居空间类型、迁居原因等的时空间分析，得到深圳市民迁居的时空间特征，并指出未来深圳市民迁居的空间趋势，以为城市内部空 间结构调整提供参考。

[Shi Zhonghua, Chai Yanwei, Liu Zhilin.The time-space analysis of citizen mobility characteristics of Shenzhen city. Human Geography, 2000, 15(3): 37-42.]

[15]
古杰, 周素红, 闫小培. 生命历程视角下的广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径. 地理研究, 2012, 32(8): 921-27.转型与重构是现阶段中国城市发展的主旋律，在这一背景下，从个体生命 历程的视角研究居住迁移的时空规律和影响因素有助于从深层次理解城市空间结构重构的内置机制，同时，对公共服务设施供给和提高居民生活质量等有一定的现实 意义。本文以2007年进行的一次入户调查资料作为基础，研究了广州市居民居住迁移时空路径的生命历程特征。结果显示，广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径呈现 出年龄偏好和空间偏好两个基本规律，这两个规律可以用"N"形曲线和"微笑曲线"来表达。"N"形曲线揭示了居住迁移率随年龄变化呈现出先上升后下降最后 再上升的规律。微笑曲线则揭示了老人与孩子的居住迁移的方向较为集中而中年人的居住迁移方向较为离散的特点。文章据此从不同生命历程居民居住偏好的角度分 析了产生上述居住迁移宏观规律的原因。从而证实了广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径具有若干生命历程的特征，对转型期广州市住房的供给与公共设施和服务的空间 配置有着积极的意义。

[Gu Jie, Zhou Shuhong, Yan Xiaopei.Formation mechanism of traffic congestion in view of spatio-temporal agglomeration of residents' daily activities: A case study of Guangzhou. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(8): 921-27.]

[16]
Ellen I G, Hempstead K.Telecommuting and the demand for urban living: A preliminary look at white-collar workers. Urban Studies, 2002, 39(4): 749-766.With recent advances in communications technology, telecommuting appears to be an increasingly viable option for many workers. For urban researchers, the key question is whether this growing ability to telecommute is altering residential location decisions and leading households to live in smaller, lower-density and more remote locations. Using the Work Schedules supplement from the 1997 Current Population Study, this paper explores this question. Specifically, it examines the prevalence of telecommuting, explores the relationship between telecommuting and the residential choices of white-collar workers and, finally, speculates about future impacts on residential patterns and urban form.

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[17]
Palm R, Danis M.The internet and home purchase. Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 2002, 93(5): 537-547.In the pre-internet era, information was a key determinant of the geographic nature of intra-urban moves. Information was a far more limited commodity, and therefore subject to management and even manipulation. Information brokers, particularly real estate agents, could order and limit the kinds of information to which prospective buyers gained access, with the potential of strongly biasing search space. In the past few years, a vastly enriched information source on housing vacancies has become available through real estate industry-sponsored sites on the internet. This rich information source has the potential to influence spatial patterns and processes in the search for housing by eliminating information barriers in the search process. Three hypotheses were tested with data from Wake County (Rayleigh), North Carolina. First, those with less prior familiarity with the destination area would make more frequent use of the internet. Second, internet users would visit fewer houses personally because they would have more prior information about the market, eliminating the need for some personal home visits. Third, internet users, armed with greater information about the house, neighbourhood, and prices of other recent sales, would pay less for the same housing/neighbourhood bundle. Recent movers in Wake County, North Carolina, were surveyed in early 2000, and the characteristics of web users were compared with nonusers. The major finding of this research is that to date, the internet has had little impact on search patterns, except that those using the internet tend to visit a larger number of houses personally than those who do not use the world wide web as an information source. Copyright Royal Dutch Geographical Society 2002.

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[18]
Mokhtarian P L, Collantes G O, Gertz C.Telecommuting, residential location, and commute-distance traveled: Evidence from State of California employees. Environment and Planning A, 2004, 36(10): 1877-1897.

[19]
Ory D T, Mokhtarian P L.Which came first, the telecommuting or the residential relocation? An empirical analysis of causality. Urban Geography, 2006, 27(7): 590-609.Researchers have questioned whether the ability to telecommute is encouraging workers to relocate to more desirable residences farther from work, and in doing so, exacerbate sprawl and increase their net vehicle-miles traveled. The research presented here directly asks, is telecommuting a 0904friend or foe09 of travel-reducing policies? Given that telecommuters tend to have longer commutes than non-telecommuters, is the ability to telecommute prompting workers to move farther away from work? Or rather, does the ability to telecommute allow those who for other reasons have already chosen, or would in any case choose, to live in more distant locations to commute less frequently? These questions are addressed using data collected from more than 200 State of California workers, including current, former, and non-telecommuters. The survey inquired retrospectively about their residential relocations, as well as their telecommuting engagements, over a 10-year period. The results indicate that, as expected, residential moves that are temporally associated with telecommuting episodes tend to increase commute time and length compared to other moves09”although the differences are not statistically significant. Analyzing the temporal order of telecommuting engagement and residential relocation, the data show that those who are telecommuting and then move actually tend to relocate closer to their workplace, whereas those who begin telecommuting following a residential relocation tended to have moved much farther from their workplace. Analysis of the stated importance of telecommuting to specific residential relocations did not show a convincing effect toward more distant moves. Thus, the evidence more strongly supports the positive view of telecommuting, that it is ameliorating the negative transportation impacts of moves that occur for other reasons.

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[20]
Ettema D F.The impact of telecommuting on residential relocation and residential preferences, a latent class modeling approach. Revista Brasileira De Cardiologia Invasiva, 2010, 17(1): 117-132.09e advance of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has changed travellers’ appreciation of travel distance in various ways. In the context of telecommuting, ICT increasingly allows us to work from home one or more days per week. One hypothesis that has been put forward is that because ICTs reduce the frequency of commuting, it allows workers to accept longer commute distances, implying that telecommuters have a different valuation of travel distance than regular commuters and would also favour more peripheral residential locations. 09e question can be raised, however, whether telecommuters can be regarded as a homogeneous group with respect to their valuation of commute distance and residential preferences. To investigate the heterogeneity of commuters’ and telecommuters’ preferences, latent class discrete choice models of workers’ intended relocation probability and preferred residential environment were estimated. 09e results suggest that telecommuting is not a factor that can be used to identify segments with different residential preferences. However, within the group of telecommuters, two different classes can be identi03ed, which can be characterised as being sensitive and insensitive to commute distance.09e advance of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has changed travellers’ appreciation of travel distance in various ways. In the context of telecommuting, ICT increasingly allows us to work from home one or more days per week. One hypothesis that has been put forward is that because ICTs reduce the frequency of commuting, it allows workers to accept longer commute distances, implying that telecommuters have a different valuation of travel distance than regular commuters and would also favour more peripheral residential locations. 09e question can be raised, however, whether telecommuters can be regarded as a homogeneous group with respect to their valuation of commute distance and residential preferences. To investigate the heterogeneity of commuters’ and telecommuters’ preferences, latent class discrete choice models of workers’ intended relocation probability and preferred residential environment were estimated. 09e results suggest that telecommuting is not a factor that can be used to identify segments with different residential preferences. However, within the group of telecommuters, two different classes can be identi03ed, which can be characterised as being sensitive and insensitive to commute distance.

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[21]
Palm R, Danis M A.Residential mobility: The impacts of Web-based information on the search process and spatial housing choice patterns. Urban Geography, 2001, 22(7): 641-655.

[22]
Chen C, Lin H.Intra-household dynamics and sequential moves in a housing search process. In: Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, 2011: 11-30.Residential location studies employing discrete choice models dominate in housing research. Relatively little is known about how people search. And yet, insights from understanding how people search can potentially improve the residential location models by providing a more realistic way to generate individual choice sets. In this paper, using the data from over two hundred face-to-face interviews conducted in the New York City region, the authors examine the role of intra-household dynamics and the dynamics played out during the sequential moves of a search. The authors results verify the role of intra-household dynamics. In addition, renters appear to follow a more consistent spatial pattern than buyers.

[23]
Chen C, Lin H.How far do people search for housing? Analyzing the roles of housing supply, intra-household dynamics, and the use of information channels. Housing Studies, 2012, 27(7): 898-914.In this paper, we investigate the spatial extent of the housing search. Using the concepts of mental map and awareness space, we argue that search space is affected by households' preferences, what is available on the housing market, and the use of information channels as well as their interactions. We hypothesize that households whose members disagree with each other have a larger search spaces than those whose members agree. Furthermore, the supply in the housing market and the use of different information channels may influence the search space differently for agreeing versus disagreeing households. We collected data from face-to-face interviews with 82 households (couples with or without children) who purchased a home in the New York City area between 2004 and 2009. The results support our hypotheses, suggesting that intra-household dynamics plays an important role in housing search.

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[24]
Wolpert J.Behavioral aspects of the decision to migrate. Papers in Regional Science, 1965, 15(1): 159-169.

[25]
Moore E G, L A Brown. Urban acquaintance fields: An evaluation of spatial models. Environment and Planning A, 1970, 2(4): 443-454.The present paper is concerned with examination of the spatial characteristics of empirical data relating to contact fields for a sample of residents in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. It is shown that a model of individual urban contact fields described in an earlier paper (Moore, 1970) provides interesting insights into the spatial characteristics of the empirical contact fields. The model is briefly presented, its aggregate form is derived, and the data are then examined with reference to the aggregate-level model.

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[26]
Huff J O.Geographic regularities in residential search behavior. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1986, 76(2): 208-227.Households exhibit strong spatial regularities in their residential search behavior; moreover these regularities arise from two distinct but interrelated sources: the spatial variation in the number of vacancies meeting particular housing needs and spatial biases in the household's search strategies. Three models of the search process are evaluated against observed search behavior for a sample of prospective home buyers in the San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles; in each instance, analysis of observed search behavior supports the hypothesized relationship between the search pattern and the locational variables influencing it. A constrained choice set model calls attention to the relationship between the spatial variation in the number of vacancies in the household's possibility set and the pattern of vacancies visited by the household. The area-based search model focuses on the locational persistence in the household's search behavior. The key to the anchor points model is that locational preference declines with increasing distance from critical anchor points in the household's activity space. The locations of the prior residence and the workplace (or workplaces for dual worker households) are shown to have a significant influence on the resulting pattern of vacancies seen by the household.

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[27]
Adams J S.Directional bias in intra-urban migration. Economic Geography, 1969: 302-323.Arguments are advanced to suggest that information and operations on information are phenomena, the principles of which provide the basis for a metascience of information (informatology). The fundamental character of the phenomena is evidenced in the operations executed during the processing and communication functions. The role of the metascience is dictated by several factors, namely, the need for a common basis upon which all information-oriented specialized sciences and technologies can be understood and studied, a common framework and language for all scientists and technologists concerned in some form or other with information, and the need to integrate various theories that concern themselves with the phenomena of information on one side and man's relationship to the phenomena on the other side. The content of the postulated metascience of information is circumscribed by a list of specific questions and problems for which the science has to provide answers and solutions. It is suggested that an educational concept responsive to the needs of metascience of information be developed and implemented.

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[28]
Brown L A, Holmes J.Search behavior in an intra-urban migration context: A spatial perspective. Environment and Planning, 1971, 3(3): 307-326.This paper examines spatial search behavior related to intra-urban migration. Its approach is to draw upon related studies to derive expectations with regard to search patterns, and to test these through empirical analysis. This involves identifying and measuring distance, directional, and sectoral spatial biases, for which an algorithm is presented that employs a map transformation and standard ellipse analysis.

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[29]
Roseman C C.Migration as a spatial and temporal process. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1971, 61(3): 589-598.ABSTRACT Within a framework of total human movement, migrations can be divided into two categories: 1) those which involve complete spatial displacement of the daily/weekly reciprocal movement patterns of the migrant (total displacement migrations), and 2) those which involve displacement of only part of the everyday reciprocal movements of migrants (partial displacement migrations). These two types of migration are related to different information-gathering processes and play different roles in the assimilation process of the migrant at his destination. They are also important as a basis for the identification of relationships between temporal and spatial dimensions of migration.

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[30]
Clark W A, Burt J E.The impacts of workplace on residential relocation. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1980, 70(1): 59-66.

[31]
Baker R G.Place utility fields. Geographical Analysis, 1982, 14(1): 10-28.First page of article

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[32]
Curran C, Carlson L A, Ford D A.A theory of residential location decisions of two-worker households. Journal of Urban Economics, 1982, 12(1): 102-114.This paper presents a model of the residential location of a household with two members working in separate urban employment centers. A three-dimensional bid-rent surface is developed and compared with the bid-rent surfaces for three other types of land users. The resulting bid-rent surfaces are used to describe the location and shape of the regions where these various types of households will choose to reside in an urban community.

DOI

[33]
Böheim R Taylor M. Residential mobility, housing tenure and the labour market in Britain. London: Report of Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, 1999.

[34]
Brown L A, Moore E G.The intra-urban migration process: A perspective. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography, 1970, 52(1): 1-13.

DOI

[35]
Clark W A, Smith T R.Housing market search behavior and expected utility theory: 2. The process of search. Environment and Planning A, 1982, 14(6): 717-737.This paper presents the second part of a study of an expected utility theory of housing market search. The basic disequilibrium theory of search is recapitulated, and a direct estimate of the stress function omega it is calculated from individual data on households during the process of search (the longitudinal sample) and households who had already bought a house (the retrospective sample). Although the tests are simple and approximate and are not without problems, we conclude that the direct test yields results which are in accordance with the theory. Additional explanatory analyses of the process of search focused on the interrelationship of household characteristics, housing attributes, search effort, and search strategy. The descriptive data on temporal and spatial search emphasize the importance of realtor involvement in search, the constraints (on search) of stage in the household life cycle, and the differences in search activities for new and 'used' housing.

DOI

[36]
Rossi P H.Why Families Move? A Study in the Social Psychology of Urban Residential Mobility. Glencoe,IL: Free Press, 1955.

[37]
Hempel D J.A comparative study of the home buying process in two Connecticut housing markets. Mansfield: Report of Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies, School of Business Administration, University of Connecticut, 1970.

[38]
D' Urso V T. Internet use and the duration of buying and selling in the residential housing market, economic incentives and voting. Boston: Doctoral Dissertation of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002.In this study we examine the impact of internet use on the duration of non-sequential search in the housing market. We develop a model of partial equilibrium in the housing market which suggests an ambiguous effect on the search duration when internet resources are employed in the search. In this model, the impact of using the internet can be viewed as increasing the search efficiency, or as altering the distribution of potential matches from which the home buyer can choose. We use data from the 2000 Home Buyer and Seller Survey collected by the National Association of Realtors. While theory suggests there might be an increase or a decrease in search times when using on-line resources in the search, in this data we find a tendency for internet use to increase the duration of home search relative to employing more conventional search methods. We use a simultaneous equations approach for the analysis of the impact of internet listing on the duration until sale in the residential housing market. In this model, the time on the market and the selling price are jointly determined, once asking price and the method used for the listing of the property is chosen by the home seller or agent. We use data from the 2000 Home Buyer and Seller Survey collected by the National Association of Realtors. We find that using the internet to list a house increases its time on the market. The results presented here are consistent our with previous findings pertaining to the use of the internet and the duration of search until a buyer locates a home to purchase. These results, together with the findings of the present study show evidence for a model of the housing market where all buyers are sellers.(cont.) We investigate the differential propensity of voters in the US to participate in national only versus national and local elections. We use data from the 1987 US General Social Survey to asses the importance of demographic and local community attachment characteristics of voters for this differential voting decision. We find that local community attachment and civic duty play an important role for this voting decision while personal monetary gains and redistributions do not appear to factor into the decision. In particular, education, age of respondent and length lived in community act to lower the costs of voting locally, and influence the voters' decision to participate in local elections as well as in national ones. However, economic incentives such as real estate capital values, local taxes and Social Security allocations do not appear to drive the differential voting decision for participating in local and national elections versus participating in national level elections only.

[39]
Richardson H, Zumpano L V.Further assessment of the efficiency effects of Internet use in home search. Journal of Real Estate Research, 2012, 34(4): 515-548.This paper examines Internet usage and the effect on buyer search efficiency using a two-stage Heckman procedure. Results indicate that as Internet usage increased, search duration increased, which differs from earlier research that found that the Internet had no significant effect on search duration, even though it increased search intensity. This study finds that the Internet increased buyer search intensity when market conditions were favorable for buyers. If the only effect of online search is an increase in search duration without a commensurate increase in benefits to buyers, the Internet may slow the market clearing process and increase seller holding costs.

[40]
Vilhelmson B, Thulin E.Does the Internet encourage people to move? Investigating Swedish young adults' internal migration experiences and plans. Geoforum, 2013, 47: 209-216.The Internet offers personalized and constantly updated information about opportunities and facilities at places far away. It stimulates distant personal contact and interaction via social media. Attention is thus increasingly being paid to the relationships between Internet use and traditional, physical forms of spatial interaction and movement. This paper explores possible associations between Internet use and internal migration, based on a 2009 survey of 750 young adults in Sweden. We explore Internet-based information seeking practices associated with actual migration experiences and with current plans to move to another place. Results indicate that many recent movers believed that the Internet influenced and facilitated their decision to move, and somewhat influenced their choice of destination. Many have also developed Internet-based communication practices that involve plans to migrate in the near future. Results suggest that the Internet reinforces intentions to move for a sizeable group, and also affects their migration motives.

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[41]
Zumpano L V, Johnson K H, Anderson R I.Internet use and real estate brokerage market intermediation. Journal of Housing Economics, 2003, 12(2): 134-150.<h2 class="secHeading" id="section_abstract">Abstract</h2><p id="">This paper examines the factors that influence the use of the Internet as part of the home buying process and the resulting effect on the efficacy of buyer search. Cross section data acquired from NAR&rsquo;s 2000 Home Buying and Selling Survey is used to conduct the analysis. This study finds that the use of the Internet as a search tool does not reduces buyer search time. Instead, by reducing within-period search costs, it encourages buyers to search more intensively. By making it possible to learn more about the availability of properties on the market, the Internet allows buyers to visit more properties without a commensurate increase in search duration. The implications of these finding with respect to the future role of brokers as market intermediaries are also examined.</p>

DOI

[42]
姜成晟, 王劲峰, 曹志冬. 地理空间抽样理论研究综述. 地理学报, 2009, 64(3): 368-380.<p>抽样调查是地理研究、资源评估、环境问题研究和社会经济问题研究的重要手段。对于地理分布的各种资源， 由于调查数据往往具有空间相关性， 传统的抽样调查理论无法满足日益增长的空间抽样需求。空间抽样理论是对具有空间相关性的各种资源和调查对象进行抽样设计的基础。本文详细论述了空间抽样理论发展现状。首先介绍了空间抽样的产生和发展， 以及空间抽样所要研究的四个问题。然后介绍了基于设计的和基于模型的抽样统计推断方式， 以及它们适用的范围。最后本文详细论述了Kriging 理论在抽样理论的应用、前向、后向和双向样本布局方法和六种空间抽样样本优化选择标准。</p>

[Jiang Chengsheng, Wang Jinfeng, Cao Zhidong.A review of geo-spatial sampling theory. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(3): 368-380.]

[43]
高丽玲, 李新虎, 王翠平, 等. 空间抽样的理论方法与应用分析: 以厦门岛问卷调查为例. 地球信息科学学报, 2010, 12(3): 358-364.在社会问卷调查中,面临调查样本点如何布局的问题,传统的空间抽样理论主要针对单目标抽样,而社会调查问卷往往涉及到多个调查目标,并且可能是类别数据,例如涉及到被调查对象的年龄、受教育程度等,因此需要在传统的抽样方法上进行适当的改进。本文从多目标空间变异的思想出发,针对社会多目标抽样调查,利用三明治空间抽样模型软件,以厦门岛住区问卷调查的需求为目标,平衡抽样精度和抽样成本,采用简单随机抽样、空间分层抽样和三明治空间抽样方法进行抽样。通过对比分析,结果表明:(1)先验知识不丰富的情况下,简单随机抽样的结果较合理,当有足够先验知识的情况下,进行空间分层抽样能使抽样的样点更具有代表性,提高抽样的精度。(2)空间抽样样点的分布主要与分层相关,分层等级越高,也就是复杂程度越高的区域分布的样点也就越多。(3)通过综合因素分层抽样和专家分层抽样的对比,分层的合理与否,与抽样结果的合理与否有直接的关联,在抽样过程中对分层的把握非常重要。本研究的目的是为厦门岛住区问卷调查选点提供依据,同时,通过复杂程度来描述各个区域的差异,也为建立多目标空间抽样模型提供了思路。

[Gao Liling, Li Xinhu,Wang Cuiping, et al.Survey site selection based on the spatial sampling theory: A case study in Xiamen island. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2010, 12(3): 358-364.]

[44]
Kwan M P, Lee J.Geovisualization of human activity patterns using 3D GIS: A time-geographic approach.In: Michael F Goodchild, Donald G Janelle. Spatially Integrated Social Science: Examples in Best Practice. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2003.

[45]
Potoglou D, Susilo Y.Comparison of vehicle-ownership models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008, (2076): 97-105.Empirical studies on household car ownership have used two types of discrete choice modeling structures: ordered and unordered. In ordered response structures, such as the ordered logit and ordered probit models, the choice of the number of household vehicles arises from a unidimensional latent variable that reflects the propensity of a household to own vehicles. Unordered response structures are based on the random utility maximization principle, which assumes a household associates a utility value across different car ownership levels and chooses the one with the maximum utility. The most common unordered response models are the multinomial logit and probit models, but only the multinomial logit has been used in practical applications because of its simple structure and low computational requirements. Consensus among researchers on unordered or ordered structures is still lacking. Empirical studies have reported various models, including the multinomial logit, ordered logit, and ordered probit. An open question remains: Which model would better reflect households鈥 car ownership choices? This paper compares multinomial logit, ordered logit, and ordered probit car ownership models through a number of formal evaluation measures and empirical analysis of three data sets: the 2001 National Household Travel Survey for the Baltimore [Maryland] Metropolitan Area, the 2005 Dutch National Travel Survey, and the 2000 Osaka [Japan] Metropolitan Person Trip Data. Results show the multinomial logit model should be selected for modeling the level of household car ownership.

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[46]
Tang W L, Mokhtarian P L, Handy S L.The impact of the residential built environment on work at home adoption frequency: An example from Northern California. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2011, 4(3): 3-22.

[47]
Ahrentzen S.A place of peace, prospect, and a PC: The home as office. Journal of Architectural and Planning Research, 1989, 6(4): 271-288.The blending of domestic, occupational, and leisure activities under one roof -the home- is appealing to more and more Americans and Western Europeans. However, community and housing design of this century reflects a "separate sphere" ideology, i. e. that domestic and work activities, or spheres of life, are and should be physically and temporally separate. Focusing on home based workers, this report examines the desired spatial separation/connection between domestic and occupational activities at the scales of the neighborhood, housing layout, and the phenomenological meaning of home. One hundred four home workers were interviewed in their homes. They expressed concern about the home becoming a total refuge or "prison." Neighborhood ambient qualities, such as quiet places to walk, and work-related services, such as post offices, located close to the home provide opportunities to distance oneself from the home regularly during the day. Within the dwelling, the workspace should be a separate room, but not a detached structure, and its optimal location to other areas of the home allows for both a sense of visual prospect as well as proximity to other areas of the home used for business situations. Overall, the findings suggest that architects, planners and researchers need to reinterpret the concepts, and the manifestation of those concepts, of public and private space in light of new lifestyles and domestic/work arrangements.

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[48]
Marcus J.The environmental and social impacts of telecommuting and teleactivities. Santa Barbara: Report of University of California, Santa Cruz, 1995.

[49]
Chamberland D.Housing and communities for a changing workforce. Williamsburg: Urban Design, Telecommuting and Travel Forecasting Conference, 1997.The author discusses some of the results of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's research on telework and home-based employment and explores how changes in the nature of the Canadian work force are impacting the use, design and regulation of their housing stock and communities. He takes us to visit Montgomery Village, Canada's first telecommunity. The community integrates a variety of housing types. It also provides Integrated Services Data Network (ISDN) or mid-band telecommunications services and zoning laws that permit most home occupations throughout the neighborhood. The author notes that increasing home-based employment challenges some of the foundations of Canadian post-war housing and planning. That is the exclusion of work activities from the home; the separation of commercial, institutional and residential uses within communities; and traditional patterns of peak hour traffic between the home and the workplace. The division between home life and work activities is becoming increasingly blurred. This creates opportunities for new housing and community planning. Telework and home-based employment will continue to change the way we will use, perceive, design and regulate our communities. It will require renovations and adaptations to the existing housing stock to meet the needs of home workers. Moreover, new flexible, adaptable and innovative designs will be needed to meet the diverse needs of this changing workforce. Finally, the challenge for cities will be to make the necessary adjustments in land use plans and regulations to unleash the potential for telework and home-based employment to generate economic growth, revitalize neighborhoods and improve the quality of life of citizens.

[50]
Kim S N, Mokhtarian P L, Ahn K H.The Seoul of Alonso: New perspectives on telecommuting and residential location from South Korea. Urban Geography, 2012, 33(8): 1163-1191.Although theoretical studies have contended that telecommuting could cause residential relocation to peripheral areas, empirical evidence regarding this argument is scant and inconclusive. Moreover, previous studies have given little consideration to telecommuters' job locations. Using data from the 2006 Seoul Metropolitan Area Household Travel Survey, this study investigates the relationships between telecommuting and residential location, considering job location. Regression results suggest that telecommuter households are indeed more likely to reside in outlying areas, consistent with theory. However, this does not necessarily mean that telecommuting facilitates living in outlying areas, nor, conversely, that long commutes stimulate telecommuting: causality cannot be established with these data. But contrary to both hypotheses, the result partially arises from the fact that firms allowing telecommuting also tend to be located in peripheral areas, with telecommuters having shorter commute distances compared to office workers. Consequently, issues regarding telesprawl need to be discussed considering the distribution of telecommuting-conducive occupations.

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