At present, the studies of water system mainly focus on water problems in arid region, while the pollution-induced water shortage problems are almost neglected.The relevant methods are mostly half-quantitative, and the results are almost macro-scope related suggestions.The pollution-induced water shortage problems takes on some characteristics, e.g. man-made effect, all-around in function and randomicity in process.The paper considers comprehensively the pollution-induced water shortage problem in southern China where water resources are abundant. And based on System Dynamic (short for,SD) water system under different policies is simulated.Taking Yangpu district in Shanghai as a case, according to its characteristics the model which includes five subsystems and six control parameters is built.The model runs and produces three kinds of desired schemes by adjusting control parameters.Based on the results the paper identifies the main impact factors of water system: water price, ratio of sewage treatment, consciousness of water saving, and technical reform. Combined with the simulation results, some reasonable policies are put forward in order to realize the balance between supply and demand on water resource, and to realize harmonious development in the region.The corresponding measures mainly refer to a rise in water price, consciousness of water saving and the ratio of sewage treatment, and reform technical in production, which can solve effectively the pollution-induced water shortage problem.Some policies depend on regulated and control reference values(corresponding years: 1990/1995/2000/2005/2010/2015/2020): TPW (water price)= 1.3/2.7/2.9/3.5/4.7/5.2/6.8; TRWW (ratio of sewage treatment)=0.73/0.79/0.84/0.85/0.93/0.96/0.97; consciousness of water saving, INDEX1=2.5(after the year 2005),INDEX2=1.021(before 2005); at TRT (technical reform.)=1/1.1/1.28/1.35/1.5/1.65/1.66.It is predicted that water system balance between supply and demand will come true in 2010 because then the total demand of water is about 14.0×109(t) and the capacity of water supply arrives at approximately 13.9×109(t).But the model can not reflect the pollution-induced water shortage phenomena due to pollution accidents; and can not provide quantitative relationship between some control-parameters, so both problems are the topics of concern in seeking for the solutions to the pollution-induced water shortage problems.
GAO Cheng-kang, BAO Cun-kuan, JIANG Da-he, DONG Jia-hua, HUO Li
. Simulation and analysis of water system in the pollution-induced water shortage region based on SD[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2007
, 26(5)
: 967
-974
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2007050013
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