The appearance of the aging phenomenon is an inevitable result in the development of society. The aging seriously influences urban economy, society and culture, especially spatial configuration of a city. Under such a situation, the analyses and studies on the aging of population are very prevalent.This paper studies the spatial distribution and trend with Metric-geography, GIS and sociology, and it also tries to explain them from dynamic aspect and static aspect. First of all, consulting the universal standard which weighs the degrees in aging of population, this paper selects six indexes about aging of population, and then calculates and analyses the spatial characteristics of aging phenomenon in Guangzhou through fuzzy classifying analytical method. After analyzing the spatial structure of aging in Guangzhou, the circinal characteristics of the aging of population from push modes, and aging degrees are obtained.Through fuzzy clustering analysis and selecting typical indexes, the paper studies ten city zones and two city towns, then gets the aging spatial structure which has circularity differential characteristic.As a whole, three types of the aging spatial structure can be classified, which are Elder-Late stage,including Yuexiu, Dongshan, Liwan, Haizhu and Fangcun; Elder-Midterm stage, including Baiyun, Panyu, Tianhe and Huangpu; and Elder-Initial stage, including Zengcheng, Conghua and Huadu. Then, with the Geographic Information System Software(Arc GIS) and Geodata Analysis Software(Geo DA), this paper analyzes the reason on the circularity structure of the aging of population, explains the circularity structure with the clustered-disperse effect of the aging, and then analyzes the clustered-disperse trend.Specifically, the central zone has dispersed trend, the interspace zone has clustered trend, and the trend in-between the dispersed and the clustered is the marginal zone. Based on the analysis, three clustered-dispersed types, such as central dispersed zone, marginal clustered zone, and interspace clustered and dispersed zone are identified. The factors, such as policy, economy, society, culture,etc, affect the aging of population in Guangzhou, which are reflected in the natural growth of population and the migration of population. The reason for the difference in spatial distribution is due to the rapid change of the rate of migration between different circularities.
[1] 党俊武.老龄化社会引论.北京:华龄出版社,2004.77~78.
[2] Stephen M, Golant. Housing America’s Elderly. Sage Publication,1992.
[3] Diane Y C, Diane Y. Carstens. Site Planning and Design for the Elderly. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,1985.
[4] Chun-Ying Hsieh, Kuo-Ping Chou. A spatial autocorrelation analysis of aging distribution and transition. Department of Geography. National Changhua Normal University,2002,(25):91~119.
[5] Flynn C B.General versus aged interstate immigration, 1970-1986.Research on Aging,1980,(2):141~154.
[6] Goodman A C.Using Lorenz curves to characterize urban elderly population.Urban Studies,1987,(24):77~80.
[7] Al-Hamad A, Flowerdew R, Hayes L.Migration of elderly people to join existing household: Some evidence from the 1991 Household sample of anonymised records. Environment and Planning A,1997,7:1243~1256.
[8] Golant S M. Locational-environmental perspectives on old-age segregated residential areas in the United States. In D T Herbert & R J Johnston(eds. ).Geography and the Urban Environment. New York: John Wiley.1980.257~294.
[9] 张文范.中国人口老龄化与战略性的选择.人口与经济,1998,(1):55~58.
[10] 杜鹏.国际老龄研究的进展与发展趋势.人口研究,1997,(3):62~65.
[11] 邬沧萍,王琳,等.中国特色的人口老龄化过程、前景和对策.人口研究,2004,28(1):8~15.
[12] 侯东尼.深圳方式:移民城市缓解城市人口老化的一项战略选择.人口研究,1991,(2).
[13] 刘爽.对中国区域人口老龄化过程的思考.人口学刊,1997,(3):33~40.
[14] 彭秀健.中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果——应用一般均衡分析.人口研究,2006,30(4):12~22.
[15] 熊吉莹.试论人口老化的社会效应.人口研究,1991,(3):51~53.
[16] 陈友华.人口老龄化、经济发展与老年社会福利设施建设——以南京市为例.人口学刊,2004,(2):20~25.
[17] 李建民,原新,等.中国人口与社会发展关系:现状、趋势与问题.人口研究,2007,31(1):33~48.
[18] 姜向群,丁志宏.对我国当前人口老龄化问题研究的概念和理论探析.人口学刊,2004,(5):10~13.
[19] 杨贵庆.未来50年影响美国大城市发展的十大因素及其思考.城市规划学刊,2006,(5):103~110.
[20] 贺文.对老龄设施在城市和村镇规划设计中的思考.城市发展研究,2005,12(1):21~24.
[21] 丁俊清.休闲绿地——一种新的园林形式.城市规划汇刊,2002,(5):68~73.
[22] 胡仁禄.美国老年社区规划及启示.城市规划,1995,(3):58~60.
[23] 李锡然.老龄化城市无障碍绿色步行系统分析.城市规划,1998,22(5):47~48.
[24] 罗德启.世纪之交的老龄居住问题.建筑学报,1996,(1):30~35.
[25] 王伯伟.可持续发展社区与人口老龄化的对策.城市规划汇刊,1997,(3):37~39.
[26] 王玮华.研究老年型城市社区规划特点及对策迫在眉睫.城市规划,1997,(4):47~49.
[27] 王颖.老龄化——城市规划的一个社会学课题.城市规划汇刊,1998,(5):57~60.
[28] 叶绪镁.人口老龄化与城市规划.城市规划,1994,(4):32~34.
[29] 周峰越.面对老龄化社会快速到来的城市规划方略.城市研究,1998,(1):12~14.
[30] 孙樱.城市老年休闲绿地系统需求分析与建设对策.资源科学,2003,25(3):69~76.
[31] 周春山,刘洋,等.转型时期广州市社会区分析.地理学报,2006,61(10):1046~1056.
[32] 冯健,周一星.北京都市区社会空间结构及其演化(1982~2000).地理学报,2003,22(4):465~483.
[33] 顾朝林,克斯特络德C.北京社会极化与空间分异研究.地理学报,1997,52(5):385~392.
[34] 王兴中.中国城市社会空间结构研究.北京:科学出版社,2000.
[35] 杜国明,张树文,等.城市人口分布的空间相关分析——以沈阳市为例.地理研究,2007,26(2):383~390.
[36] 刘玉亭,吴缚龙,等.转型期城市低收入邻里的类型、特征和机制.地理研究,2006,25(6):1073~1082.
[37] 李日邦,王五一,等.我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异.地理研究,1999,18(2):113~121.
[38] 孙樱,陈田,等.北京市区老年人口休闲行为的时空特征初探.地理研究,2001,20(5):537~546.
[39] 柴彦威,李昌霞.中国城市老年人日常购物行为的空间特征.地理学报,2005,60(3):401~408.
[40] 克伦塔尔R C.老年学.毕可生 译.兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1986.31~45.
[41] 刘陶琨.模糊聚类分析在土地定级估价商服中心类型划分中的应用.测绘信息与工程,2004,29(3):9~11.
[42] 徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.305~321.
[43] Bezdek J C, Castelaz P F. Prototype classification and feature selection with fuzzy set. IEEE Trans. SMC,1987,7(2).
[44] Anselin L. Space Stat Tutorial: A workbook for using space stat in the analysis of spatial data. Technical Software Series. NCGIA, University of California, Santa Barbara,1995.
[45] Birkin M, Clarke G, Clarke M et al. Intelligent GIS: Location Decisions and Strategic Planning. New York: John Wiley&Sons Inc,1996.
[46] Bracken I. An extensive surface model database for population-related information: Concept and application. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,1993,(20):13~27.
[47] Dejong P, Sprenger C, Veen F Van. On extreme values of Moran's I and Geary's C. Geographical Analysis, 1984,(16):16~24.
[48] Ding Y, Fotheringham A S. The integration of spatial analysis and GIS. Computers Environment and Urban System,1992,(16):3~20.
[49] Ord J K, Getis A. Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: Distributional issues and an application. Geographical Analysis,1995,(4):286~306.
[50] Slater P J. Center to cancroids in a graph.Journal of Graphic Theory,1987,2:209~222.
[51] 王恩涌,赵荣,等.人文地理学.北京:高等教育出版社,2000.85~86.
