Multi-agent based modeling of land-use decision making process in a democratic setting
Received date: 2008-04-25
Revised date: 2008-10-09
Online published: 2010-11-20
Supported by
美国国家科学基金会"环境中的生物复杂性"项目(CNH BCS-0216722)
Residential development is a major driving force in the dynamics of urban land use and ecosystems. The type and rate of land development depend on the complex interaction among the stakeholders and their responses to the environmental consequences after a development decision is made. This paper introduces a framework of a coupled human and natural system and uses a multi-agent model to simulate the complex interactions among land stakeholders with respect to the decision making process for local land development. The human system was built on a multi-agent model, with each class of agents representing different types of landowners, homeowners, municipal government, and commercial developers, respectively. The decision making process of each agent class was modeled using an agent-specific multi-attribute utility function. The complex interactions among different classes of agents as well as among the agents of the same class were simulated with a given time lag in sequence. The natural system was built on a cellular automata platform, where the land cover transition rules were governed by a landscape model (MOSAIC) and a patch model (FACET). The environmental quality indices to be used as feedback to the human system were generated from a hydrological model and a habitat model. In each lifecycle of simulation, human decisions on land development were passed to the natural system, which in turn generated environmental indices to be considered by the concerned agents (such as homeowners and the government) in the land-related decision making in the next cycle. Using a fast-urbanizing region in northern Texas as the study area, the model was run to produce simulations with a 25-year time span. Preliminary results demonstrated the ability of the model in simulating real dynamic situations at the qualitative level. It revealed a cyclic trend of interactions among agents, which was also observed in the real situation, with landowners and homeowners being the most active agent types. In addition, this study tested several land management strategies and revealed that considering landowner values when targeting available open space for preservation may lead to more effective growth management strategies than solely purchasing land based on opportunity or ecological factors. Extensive efforts are also required when applying this modeling framework to different socioeconomic and cultural settings, such as China.
JI Min-he, Michael Monticino, Miguel Acevedo . Multi-agent based modeling of land-use decision making process in a democratic setting[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2009 , 28(1) : 85 -96 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2009010011
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