A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China
Received date: 2003-07-14
Revised date: 2003-07-31
Online published: 2003-10-15
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had been widely spread in China since the early days of this year, which badly affected the tourism industry of China The increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China was -6 28% in March and -31 01% in May, compared with the corresponding period of the last year Bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze the effect of SARS on the international tourist arrivals to China in this article And the parameter in the model is determined by man's psychological change Based on the study on the convalescence of similar events, and combined with the situation of China, SARS effect is analyzed under three assumptions: the convalescence may be twelve months, eighteen months and twenty four months after SARS finished separately If the convalescence is twelve months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 96% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 23 8493 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 4968 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is eighteen months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 07% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 31 1703 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 6493 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is twenty four months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 16 55% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 38 5233 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 8024 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China
ZHU Ying bo, GE Quan sheng, WEI Xiao an, DONG Pei nan, HE Lian sheng, PENG Hu . A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2003 , 22(5) : 551 -559 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2003050003
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