Modeling the spatial distribution of urban population density and its evolution in Hangzhou
Received date: 2002-06-26
Revised date: 2002-07-25
Online published: 2002-10-15
The evolution of urban morphology in the process of urban growth is one of the theoretical frontier issues, while the spatial-temoral structure of the distribution of urban populationdensity is one of the important contents of urban growth. Combining with data of the previous censuses(the second census in 1964, the third one in 1982 and the fourth one in 1990), the author usesdata of the Fifth Census of Hangzhou to study the models of spatial distributionof population density and its evolution in Hangzhou for more than 30 years systematically. First of all, the author transforms data of population census into spatial data by using the map of Hangzhou, and extracts data of urban population density distribution of different years.Then seven kinds of models are tested, including the linear one, the exponential one, the logarithmic one, the power one, the lognormalone, the power-exponential one and the second degree exponentialone. With a viewpoint of the whole tendency, the power-exponential model, as an amended form of the negative exponential model, can describe spatial distribution of urban population density of Hangzhou well. The parameter σreflects the tendency of changes of information entropy of urban geographic system. The parameter σfluctuates, increases and approaches 1, indicating that the power-exponential distribution of urban population density evolves into the ideal Clark (negative exponential) one with the lapse of time. The analysis of urban growth and its spatial dynamics shows that the spatial complexity and the utility of Hangzhou's function unit increase, and that urban spatialstructure tends to be in a new order with the increase of urban ability as a self-organization and the development of suburbanization. As a result of regression, we can't get a model like that of Newling, and there isn't any tidal wave of expansion in the development of spatial distribution of population density in Hangzhou within the past several decades, so it is easy to draw a conclusion that there is a large gap between Chinese cities and western ones in multi-nucleus morphologyand process of suburbanization.
FENG Jian . Modeling the spatial distribution of urban population density and its evolution in Hangzhou[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2002 , 21(5) : 635 -646 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2002050013
[1] Batty M,Longley P A1 Fractal Cities:A Geometry of Form and Function.London:Academic Press,Harcourt Brace&Company,Publishers,1994.
[2] Frankhouser P.La Fractalitédes Structures Urbaines.Paris:Economica,1994.
[3] 刘继生,陈彦光.城镇体系空间结构的分形维数及其测算方法.地理研究,1999,18,(2):171～178.
[4] White R,Engelen G.Cellular automata and fractal urban form:a cellular modeling approach to t he evolution of urbanland2use patterns.Environment and Planning A,1993,25:1175～1199.
[5] White R,Engelen G,Uljee I.The use of constrained cellular automata for high2resolution modeling of urban2land dy2namics.Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,1997,24:323～343.
[6] 薛领,杨开忠.复杂性科学理论与区域空间演化模拟研究.地理研究,2002,21(1):79～88.
[7] 刘继生,陈彦光.基于GIS的细胞自动机模型与人地关系的复杂性探讨.地理研究,2002,21(2):155～162.
[8] Lee Y.An allometric analysis of t he US urban system:1960280.Environment and Planning A,1989,21:463～476.
[9] Benguigui L,Czamanski D,Marinov M.City growt h as a leap2frogging process:an application to t he Tel2Aviv metropo2lis.Urban Studies,2001,38(10):1819～1839.
[10] Benguigui L,Czamanski D,Marinov M,Portugali Y.When and where is a cit y fractal?Environment and Planning:Planning and Design,2000,27:507～519.
[11] Cadwallader M T.Urban Geography:An Analytical Approach.Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,1996.
[12] Wang F H,Zhou Y X.Modeling urban population densities in Beijing 1982-90:suburbanisation and its causes.UrbanStudies,1999,36(2):271～287.
[13] 陈彦光.城市人口密度衰减的分形模型及其异化形式—对Clark模型和Sherratt模型的综合与发展.信阳师范学院学报(自然科学版),1999,12(1):60～64.
[14] 陈彦光.城市人口空间分布函数的理论基础与修正形式—利用最大熵方法推导关于城市人口密度衰减的Clark模型.华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,34(4):489～492.
[15] 沈建法,王桂新.90年代上海市中心城人口分布及其变化趋势的模型研究.中国人口科学,2000,(5):45～52.
[16] Clark C.Urban population densities.Journal of Royal Statistical Societ y,1951,114:490～496.
[17] Sherratt G G.A model for general urban growt h.In:Churchman C W and Verhulst M(Eds).Management Sciences,Model and Techniques:Proceedings of t he Sixt h International Meeting of Institute of Management Sciences(Vol.2).Elmsford,N.Y:Pergamon Rress,19601147～159.
[18] Tanner J C.Factors affecting t he amount travel.Road Research Technical Paper No.51,HMSO(Depart ment of Scien2tific and Industrial Research).London,1961.
[19] Smeed R J.The traffic problem in towns.Manchester Statistical Societ y Papers.Manchester:Norbury Lockwood,1961.
[20] Parr J B,O’Neill GJ.Aspects of lognormal function in t he analysis of regional population distribution.Environment andPlanning A,1989,21:961～973.
[21] Longley P,Mesev V.Beyond analogue models:space filling and density measurements of an urban settlement.Papers inRegional Sciences,1997,76:409～427.
[22] Newling B E.The spatial variation of urban population densities.Geographical Review,1969,59:242～252.
[23] Mut h R.Cities and Housing:The Spatial Patterns of Urban Residential Land Use.Chicago,IL:Unversit y of ChargoPress,1969.
[24] Wilson A G.Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling.London:Pion Press,1970.
[25] Bussiere R,Snickers F.Derivation of t he negative exponential model by an entropy maximizing met hod.Environmentand Planning A,1970,2:295～301.
[26] Batt y M.Less is more,more is different:complexity,morphology,cities,and emergence.Environment and PlanningB:Planning and Design,2000,27:167～168.
[27] Banks R B.Growt h and Diffusion Phenomena:Mat hematial Frameworks and Applications.Berlin Heidelberg:SpringerVerlag,1994.
[28] 冯健,周一星.杭州市人口的空间变动与郊区化研究.城市规划,2002,26(1):58～65.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |