There is a coupling relationship between ports and cities in a regional system according to system dynamics. Based on SD principle and method, this paper establishes a PU-SD port-city coupling model to analyze multiple feedback mechanisms of port-city coupling system and the process of their interaction within the system. The model, which has proved to be reliable and applicable, takes Lianyungang City in Jiangsu Province as an example. Applying historical data fitting, varying economic and social parameters, the model takes 2008 as a base year to produce a scenario simulation for development of the port city in the following 30 years in order to determine appropriate development models for its corresponding phases. The result indicates that port-city coupling relationship and its variation with the parameters modified are complicated and time-varying. This result conforms to the port-city development cycle theory. Therefore, under the guidance of port-city coupling mechanism with its necessary adjustment, Lianyungang City can achieve coordinated development through applying economy-driven, resource-driven and community-driven model according to different phases by exerting different regulating strategies.
YANG Shan, PAN Jing
. Dynamic simulation and regulation of port-city coupling development: Taking Lianyungang as a case[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011
, 30(6)
: 1021
-1031
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2011060006
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