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GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH >

2011 , Vol. 30 >Issue 4: 601 - 611

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011040003

Earth Surface Processes

Risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems from climate change in China

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  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050016, China

Received date: 2010-05-21

  Revised date: 2011-01-04

  Online published: 2011-04-20

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Abstract

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystem will be helpful to the decision-making of climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiation. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystem simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time-series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystem were investigated. The results show that, under the IPCC SRES-B2 climate scenario, the climate change will bring risk of carbon sequestration, and the high risk level will dominate the terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. Till the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk, Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, Middle and Lower Reaches Plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during near-term to mid-term. Northwest China, deciduous coniferous forest, temperate mixed forest and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Key words： isk; carbon sequestration; China; terrestrial ecosystem

Cite this article

SHI Xiao-li, WU Shao-hong, DAI Er-fu, ZHAO Dong-sheng, PAN Tao . Risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems from climate change in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011 , 30(4) : 601 -611 . DOI: 10.11821/yj2011040003

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