Quantitatively measuring the eco-environmental impacts of energy consumption is an important issue for regional sustainable development evaluation. Taking the carbon cycling process of fossil fuel combustion - carbon dioxide emission - land absorption as the research object, some contents of traditional model such as calculation of land carbon absorption capacity are modified by establishing an energy ecological footprint (EEF) model based on net primary productivity. With Jilin Province as an example, the dynamics of EEF and its each land use type supply from 1994 to 2008 are analyzed by using the modified model, and then the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on EEF are revealed by calculating ecological effect index. Furthermore, a system dynamic prediction model under the restriction of LUCC is proposed and used to predict the scenarios of EEF defined as three types in the next 15 years. The results show that, during 1994-2008, the EEF per capita of Jilin Province, of which forest, cropland and grassland are the main part, increases from 0.228 hm2 to 0.524 hm2, indicating a fast rate, while the grassland degradation has become the primary cause of faster increase in EEF besides the factor of energy consumption since 2003. During 2009-2023, the average annual growth rate of EEF per capita will be 6.36%, 10.73% and 11.43% under the scenarios of low growth, medium growth and high growth, respectively. Meanwhile, the negative ecological effects of LUCC will become one of the main driving forces of the increase in EEF. In view of this, more efforts on natural vegetation especially on the western grassland protection should be made to strengthen the regional comprehensive carbon capability. Compared with the traditional model, the modified model could overcome the defects of excessive simplification and pessimism in evaluation results, which can reflect the eco-environmental impacts of energy consumption more factually and roundly.
FANG Kai, SHEN Wan-bin, DONG De-ming
. Modification and prediction of energy ecological footprint: A case study of Jilin Province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2011
, 30(10)
: 1835
-1846
.
DOI: 10.11821/yj2011100010
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