GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 1043-1054.doi: 10.11821/yj2007050021

• Urban and Rural Studies • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial distribution and trends of the aging of population in Guangzhou

LIN Lin1, MA Fei2   

  1. 1. School of Geography Sciences and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275,China;
    2. China Land Investment &|Consultant CO.LTD.|Guangzhou 510070,China
  • Received:2007-03-06 Revised:2007-07-12 Online:2007-09-25 Published:2007-09-25
  • Supported by:

    国家自然科学基金研究资助项目(40571053)

Abstract: The appearance of the aging phenomenon is an inevitable result in the development of society. The aging seriously influences urban economy, society and culture, especially spatial configuration of a city. Under such a situation, the analyses and studies on the aging of population are very prevalent.This paper studies the spatial distribution and trend with Metric-geography, GIS and sociology, and it also tries to explain them from dynamic aspect and static aspect. First of all, consulting the universal standard which weighs the degrees in aging of population, this paper selects six indexes about aging of population, and then calculates and analyses the spatial characteristics of aging phenomenon in Guangzhou through fuzzy classifying analytical method. After analyzing the spatial structure of aging in Guangzhou, the circinal characteristics of the aging of population from push modes, and aging degrees are obtained.Through fuzzy clustering analysis and selecting typical indexes, the paper studies ten city zones and two city towns, then gets the aging spatial structure which has circularity differential characteristic.As a whole, three types of the aging spatial structure can be classified, which are Elder-Late stage,including Yuexiu, Dongshan, Liwan, Haizhu and Fangcun; Elder-Midterm stage, including Baiyun, Panyu, Tianhe and Huangpu; and Elder-Initial stage, including Zengcheng, Conghua and Huadu. Then, with the Geographic Information System Software(Arc GIS) and Geodata Analysis Software(Geo DA), this paper analyzes the reason on the circularity structure of the aging of population, explains the circularity structure with the clustered-disperse effect of the aging, and then analyzes the clustered-disperse trend.Specifically, the central zone has dispersed trend, the interspace zone has clustered trend, and the trend in-between the dispersed and the clustered is the marginal zone. Based on the analysis, three clustered-dispersed types, such as central dispersed zone, marginal clustered zone, and interspace clustered and dispersed zone are identified. The factors, such as policy, economy, society, culture,etc, affect the aging of population in Guangzhou, which are reflected in the natural growth of population and the migration of population. The reason for the difference in spatial distribution is due to the rapid change of the rate of migration between different circularities.

Key words: aging of population, spatial distribution, fuzzy classifying analytical method, trend, spatial autocorrelation analysis