FAN Zhuoying, SONG Guangwen, LONG Jinying, CAI Liang, CHEN Jianguo
As a pivotal tactic in proactive policing, police stops are a widely utilized instrument employed by law enforcement agencies across nations to uphold societal security and deter criminal activity. However, there is no unified conclusion on whether police stops can effectively combat crime, and there is a lack of discussion on the spatial heterogeneity of their nonlinear relationship, with most studies focusing on Western countries. Consequently, this study takes the central district of a major city in China as an example, combines data on crime, police stops, ambient population, and points of interest (POIs). Utilizing the XGBoost machine learning model alongside the SHAP additive interpreter, this study delves into the spatio-temporal interplay between police stops and crime, unveiling their nonlinear relationship amidst spatial heterogeneity. The findings reveal that: firstly, the XGBoost model results show that the most important feature for crime prediction in the current week is the number of police stops in the previous week, followed by the ambient population and proportion of local population. Secondly, an analysis with the SHAP additive interpreter reveals that the number of police stops in the previous week exerts a negative impact on overall crime for this week, exhibiting a nonlinear relationship that peaks at a threshold of 5.0 standard values per week for police stops. Thirdly, when SHAP values were explored in conjunction with spatial distribution, the results showed spatial heterogeneity in the impact of police stops on street crime, indicating that most of the grids where the police stops of the previous week had a significant negative effect spatially corresponded to commercial centres with high foot traffic. On the other hand, most of the positively affected grids were spatially distributed in urban villages, passenger terminals, and railway stations, where complex movements of people occur. Finally, to validate the effectiveness of the hotspot policing experiment, consideration of crime non-hotspot areas was added. This study further discusses differences in police tactics between hotspot and non-hotspot areas. Increasing the intensity of police stops in hotspot areas can effectively curb crime, but an excessive number of police stops in non-hotspots of crime can weaken the deterrent effect of police stops on crime. The study's conclusions can inform decision-making to optimize police deployment spatially, and enhance resource efficiency, so as to enrich crime geography research in China.