10 September 2021, Volume 40 Issue 9 Previous Issue   
Articles
The evolution theory of national need structure and its application:A case study of the Sino-Russian Arctic development cooperation
YU Huilu, LI Fei, LIN Yinghua, CUI Yating
2021, 40 (9):  2399-2425.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201029
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This paper constructs a theoretical framework describing the evolution principle of international relations, and employs it to analyze the geopolitical environment of Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation. Firstly, based on the concepts of national need and national need structure, this paper summarizes the evolution characteristics of national need structure, and puts forward three evolution models of national need structure in bilateral relations: relatively stable model, optimizing cooperation model, and tensing relationship model. It is believed that national needs are the same as individual needs, and there is an evolution trend from low-level to high-level. "Low-level needs have been satisfied" is a prerequisite for the escalation of the level of needs. Secondly, we employ evolution theory of national need structure to analyze the geopolitical environment facing Sino-Russian Arctic development cooperation, and put forward counterme- asures and suggestions to maintain the good momentum of Sino-Russian Arctic development cooperation: Properly handling Sino-U.S. relations is the top priority because the U.S. factor is an active obstacle for the Sino-Russian Arctic development cooperation; Political mutual trust is a decisive factor in Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation, therefore strengthening cooperative research in the field of international relations theory between two countries is an effective policy instrument. We should improve the transparency of cooperative projects and share relevant data of projects' impact on the ecological environment and indigenous peoples in the international community, and strengthen strategic communication in order to expand common interests and maintain cooperative partnerships with America’s allies. As a non-Arctic country, China should adhere to the principle of "participation in Arctic affairs to a proper extent". Finally, we draw several conclusions: The evolution theory of national need structure can explain the core viewpoints of the three schools of Western international relations; the evolution model of the need structure of bilateral countries focuses on the regularity of sudden changes in international relations, and helps provide decision-making reference for the prediction of international relation crises and the formulation of emergency plans; the theory of national need structure can provide reference for the foreign policy making of different countries.

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The econometric analysis of the effect of city housing prices on fertility rates:A study from cities of the Yangtze River Delta in China
FANG Huifen, CHEN Jianglong, YUAN Feng, GAO Jinlong
2021, 40 (9):  2426-2441.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201069
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The nexus between housing prices and population has long been the hot topic for scholars in fields of humanities, economics, and geography. Taking 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta as examples, this article explored the influence of housing prices on fertility rates with the panel data from 2008 to 2018. Employing the differential GMM (Dif-GMM) and Biased-corrected LSDV (LSDVC) approaches, we modeled the underlying mechanism at regional and sub-group levels. The result of Dif-GMM model indicated that the rocketing housing prices in the study area largely triggered the decline of fertility rates. The faster the housing price rose, the faster the fertility rate declined. Besides, by using the variable of housing price to income ratio, we measured the home affordability of residents in every city. The result indicated that the faster the home affordability decreased, the faster the fertility rate decreased. Furthermore, the result of LSDVC model shed further light on the heterogeneity of nexus across sub-groups. Specifically, the fertility rates in cities with medium or low housing prices were more vulnerable to the fluctuation of housing purchasing ability, while in cities with high or medium-high housing prices, the situation was opposite. Besides, different types of cities showed distinct variations in the fertility rates when facing changes of regional economic development, which depended on the income expectation and cost expectation brought by the economic development. Stemming from the aforementioned findings, we finally proposed some policy suggestions on how to increase people’ fertility intention. The primary one is to control the speed of housing prices rise. The second one is to improve the home affordability of residents through increasing housing subsidies or residents’ income. In addition, the regulation of rising housing price in cities with low or medium housing price should not be ignored. Instead, more targeted policies should be formulated in these regions, with a view to increasing residents’ overall willingness to have children and promoting sustainable population development in the whole region.

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The spatiotemporal differentiation pattern of Chinese urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio
CHEN Yanru, GU Yue, SONG Weixuan
2021, 40 (9):  2442-2458.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200817
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Amid the fast-growing housing price in Chinese cities, the spatial pattern of urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio shows both similarities and differences, characterized by internal spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. This paper targets 337 prefecture-level administrative units and applies the Theil index, rank-size and spatial Markov chain to the analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern, overall stability and spatial dependence of Chinese urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio from 2009 to 2018. It finds the following results. Firstly, the growth of Chinese urban housing price is phase-based and fluctuated. When the overall differentiation enlarges, the urban system of housing price takes on a structure of “pyramid” and income shows sustained and stable growth. When the overall differentiation shrinks, the urban system presents a structure of “olive”. Under the combined influence of housing price and income, the overall differentiation of housing price-to-income ratio is obviously strengthened. Secondly, housing prices, income and housing price-to-income ratios in Chinese cities are all spatially heterogeneous and agglomerated. The spatial pattern of housing price is different in both zonality and hierarchy, while income is particularly different in zonality and housing price-to-income ratio is particularly different in hierarchy. Due to the coexistence of similarities and differences between housing prices and income patterns in Chinese cities, the housing price-to-income ratio pattern presents a more complex and discrete structure. Thirdly, the stability and spatial dependence of urban housing price and the type of income is stronger, while the stability of housing price-to-income ratio is relatively weak as there are polarization and club convergence in cities at different levels. Housing prices to the north of the "Hu Huanyong Line" shifted downwards, income shifted upwards, and the housing price-to-income ratio declined. In the southern regions, housing prices generally rose rapidly, with income shifts showing stable in the east, downwards in the central region, and upwards in the west, leading to the discrete and broken pattern of housing price-to-income ratios. Moreover, the type shifts of urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio are not spatially independent, but related to the neighboring cities. The analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern and spatial correlation effect of Chinese urban housing price, income, and housing price-to-income ratio lays a foundation for research on the spatial differentiation pattern and mechanism of Chinese urban housing price-to-income ratio.

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The spatio-temporal pattern of shop rent and its influencing factors in Nanjing
GU Yue, WANG Jiekai, HUANG Qinshi, SONG Weixuan
2021, 40 (9):  2459-2475.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201003
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As one of the important indexes used to evaluate the commercial vitality of a city and the commercial value of a range, shop rent is a hot issue in the field of economic geography. Nanjing, located in the economically developed Yangtze River Delta region, has been a major commercial city for a long time. This paper examines the spatio-temporal pattern of the rent of 3294 shops in the central urban areas of Nanjing from 2010 to 2019 by means of Kernel Density, Moran’s I and other methods of geographical space analysis. On this basis, this paper taps into the factors affecting the shop rent from traffic location, peripheral supporting facilities, and consumption capacity by using the geographical detector. According to the research, the average shop rent in the central urban area of Nanjing presents an obvious spatial and temporal differentiation pattern from 2010 to 2019. The changing trend of the average shop rent in the study area is characterized by a stable growth in the early stage, a significant decline in the middle stage, and a rapid rise in the later stage. The spatial distribution of shops presents a trend of increasingly intensive spatial agglomeration by centering in Xinjiekou and the areas of Hexi, Dongshan and Jiangbei in the periphery of inner city form a hierarchical commercial agglomeration pattern. Similarly, the spatial distribution of rent in primary urban areas has significant spatial positive correlation and localized spatial agglomeration, and forms the core-periphery structure with Xinjiekou as a hot spot and the southern and northern urban areas as cold spots, aggravating the rent differentiation between the primary and secondary urban areas. The shop rent in the primary urban areas is affected not only by the key external factors including the subway accessibility, surrounding housing prices and potential consumption capacity, but also by the endogenous factors such as business form and shop image. However, dwelling density and construction age of shops have a weaker impact on shop rent. The factors influencing shop rent are complex and the interaction of many factors has led to the spatio-temporal differentiation pattern of shop rent in Nanjing. This paper reveals the leading factors causing the spatial differentiation of shop rent in Nanjing and their combinations and changes, aiming to advance the research on urban commercial space in China and provide a reference for local governments, developers and shop investors and operators.

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Construction and evaluation of urban ecological security pattern: A case study of Suzhou city
SUN Feng, ZHANG Jinhe, WANG Peijia, WEI Guoen, CHU Guang, CAO Yu
2021, 40 (9):  2476-2493.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200990
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The construction of urban ecological security pattern is an important way to ensure regional ecological security and realize sustainable development. Taking Suzhou city as a case, this paper constructs and evaluates the urban ecological security pattern by integrating various methods, such as ecosystem service quantification, ecological security pattern construction and ecological security assessment. The results show that: (1) In 2017, the services of food supply, fresh water supply, air purification, flood regulation and water storage, carbon sink service, tourism and leisure, soil conservation and habitat quality in Suzhou city are 32795.94 yuan/hm2, 686.6 mm, 283.68 yuan/hm2, 28.62 mm, 86.99 t/hm2, 3736.75 yuan/hm2, 174.8 t/hm2 and 0.47, respectively. High value areas are mainly concentrated in areas densely distributed with woodland, garden, cultivated land and water area, while low value areas are mainly concentrated in the central urban area and its surrounding areas. (2) Nine important ecological source areas are identified, including Taihu Lake, Dongshan Mountain, Xishan Mountain, Qionglong Mountain, Dayang-Tianchi Mountain, Wangshan-Shangfang Mountain, Yangcheng Lake, Changyang Lake and Taipu River. (3) We extracted 36 ecological corridors and 32 ecological nodes, among which, 19, 17, 27 and 5 are important ecological corridors, general ecological corridors, important ecological nodes and general ecological nodes, respectively. The connectivity between Taihu Lake and its surrounding ecological source areas in the southwest of the region is good, and the ecological correlation is high. The connectivity between the northeast of the region and other parts is poor, and the ecological network needs to be improved. It is suggested that the width of important ecological corridors should be 100-200 m, and that of general ecological corridors should be 60-100 m in Suzhou city. (4) The overall ecological network closure is relatively low, the ecological network connection level is complex, the ecological node connectivity is relatively low, and the ecological network cost is relatively high in Suzhou city. Priority should be given to the construction of ecological corridor with great importance, namely, strengthening the construction of ecological corridor among large areas of water and wetland, and improving the connectivity between water area and surrounding mountains and hills. This study is expected to provide useful references for exploring the application value of ecosystem services, implementing the integrated development strategy of Yangtze River Delta, and assisting the construction of ecological civilization.

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The characteristics and changing trend of administrative boundary above county level in China
ZHAO Biao, WANG Kaiyong, WANG Fuyuan, LIU Haimeng
2021, 40 (9):  2494-2507.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200933
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As one of the basic elements of administrative division, administrative boundary is the spatial basis and important basis for the country to implement effective administrative management according to law. This study uses spatial analysis, multiple regression analysis based on grid and other methods to study the administrative boundaries above the county level in China and their changing trend. The results show that: at present, China is still divided into geographical regions and administrative regions according to the natural geographical features such as mountains and rivers. The administrative boundaries were zigzag, as jagged as a dog's teeth. On the whole, the higher the administrative level is, the more obviously it is affected by the principle of the shape of mountains and rivers, the lower the altitude is, and the more obviously affected by the principle of the interlacing of administrative boundaries. The existing ways of dividing administrative boundaries are mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, ecological division frequently occurs, which has negative effect on the overall protection of the ecological environment in the border areas. Problems existing in the current administrative region boundary segmentation approach are mainly reflected in the following aspects. The demarcation principle of convenient mountains and rivers in administrative areas is prone to cause some complete ecological environment units to be divided artificially by different administrative boundaries, which can lead to a variety of inter-regional contradictions, which has negative effect on the overall protection of the ecological environment in border areas. In addition, uneven administrative boundaries undermine the integrity of the economic zone, raise the circulation costs and administrative costs of production factors, which is likely to lead to boundary disputes and interest disputes. At present, the impact of mountains and rivers on the national economic and social development is weakening, and the economic and social development is gradually breaking through the restrictions of administrative boundaries. In the process of administrative division adjustment in the future, administrative boundaries should be set by crossing mountains and rivers in a timely manner, and the way of administrative district setting should be changed, so as to ensure the integrity of ecological environment and the actual needs of economic and social development.

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The influence of natural endowment and political district type on the economic development of Chinese counties
ZHANG Baifa, LI Jingjing, HU Zhiqiang, WANG Juanjuan, MIAO Changhong
2021, 40 (9):  2508-2525.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201000
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The influence analysis of traditional research on economic development is mainly focused on social and economic indicators, and there is less research on the natural endowment of "innate" and the administrative "identity characteristics" of "the superimposing of the after-day". To explore the factors of natural endowment, we introduce the virtual variables of administrative identity of municipal districts, provincial capitals, urban groups and various interactive items. Based on the 2015 Chinese light data characterizing the county economy, we use spatial correlation and regression analysis to present the economic development pattern of China's counties, so as to reveal the influence of natural endowments and political district types on the economic development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) China's county economy has significant positive spatial self-correlation, and the larger spatial positive correlation indicates that there is indeed spatial differences. (2) The gap between urban and rural areas is still the most important feature of China's regional differences, of which the gap between urban and rural areas in the provincial capitals is more obvious. (3) Subregionally, the economic integration in the eastern region is high, and the internal differences are small, and the differences between the provincial capitals of the western region and the gap between urban and rural areas are higher than the national average, while the gap between the capital cities of the central region and the non-provincial capitals is greater than that between urban and rural areas. (4) Among the three types of political districts, the type of municipal district plays the most important role in promoting the economy, followed by the type of provincial capital, and the weakest is urban agglomeration. (5) Through interactive analysis, the role of urban agglomerations in promoting economic development in China's districts and counties has been very obvious, especially in the eastern region, not only to raise the level of economic development, but also to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. However, the urban agglomerations play a weak role in the central and western regions. (6) Natural endowment plays a role in China's economic development, and the ratio of slope to 15 degrees area and average elevation are the disadvantages restricting economic development. (7) The above analysis reveals that the implementation of urban agglomeration strategy can narrow the economic gap of county region caused by topography and landform.

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Structure characteristics of intercity travel network and identification of city role during the Spring Festival travel rush in China: Based on the measurement of multiple traffic passenger flows
ZHANG Yu, CAO Weidong, LIANG Shuangbo, REN Yawen
2021, 40 (9):  2526-2541.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200998
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As the carrier of the elements flow and the main body of spatial remodeling, the traffic passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel rush can better reflect the new trend of China's regional development. Based on the data of traffic passenger flow during the 2017 Spring Festival travel rush, the spatial structure of the traffic passenger flow network is compared and analyzed from the dimensions of the overall network, intercity connections and city nodes, and the regional traffic types of city are comprehensively identified. The study found that: 1) Firstly, compared with the radiation scope and flow scale of highway passenger flow, railway passenger flow is larger and air passenger flow is smaller. Secondly, the traffic passenger flow network tends to become more complicated. Specifically, highway passenger flow is dominated by city group of "neighboring-province", railway passenger flow is mainly expressed as a "cross-provincial" city group, and the "fragmented" city group is a common form of air passenger flow. 2) The regional spatial structure formed by short-distance highway passenger flow, medium-short-distance railway passenger flow and medium-long-distance air passenger flow shows a significant trend of polarization, which is mainly concentrated in the urban agglomeration and among the urban agglomerations on the southeast side of "Hu Huanyong Line". 3) Under the constraints of spatial distance, there are significant differences in the spatial organization model of the traffic passenger flow network based on the "city’s first contact". There are five spatial organization modes of the highway passenger flow, and the multi-portfolio "Core-Periphery" spatial organization mode is the general form of railway passenger flow, while the multi-portfolio "Hub-spoke" spatial organization operation mode is a typical representative of air passenger flow. 4) There are significant differences in the regional traffic types of city, in which the "sleeping" and "Active" areas of the traffic passenger flow have been formed, and central city and urban agglomeration are the main distribution centers of the traffic passenger flow. This article aims to provide reference for the formation of the regional economic pattern with complementary advantages and high quality development under the new situation in China.

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Connection modeling and optimization strategies of terminal logistics network of community-oriented new retail stores: A case study of Freshippo stores and Cainiao stations in Shenzhen city
HUANG Yushan, LI Gang, JIN Annan, YU Yue
2021, 40 (9):  2542-2557.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201041
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The "new retail" of the integrated development of online shopping and offline delivery brings vitality to the advance of the retail industry. Focusing on the problems of terminal logistics network of the "new retail", the exploration of optimization strategies for the connection with parcel collection & delivery points could provide a reference for improving the quality and efficiency of community-oriented new retail stores. Based on the data of areas of interest (AOIs) of Freshippo stores and points of interest (POIs) of Cainiao stations in Shenzhen City, this paper demonstrated the feasibility of spatial connection between community-oriented new retail stores and parcel collection & delivery points, put forward the optimization plans and simulated the optimization effects. The foundation of connection between community-oriented new retail stores and parcel collection & delivery points was examined by methods of spatial analysis and quantitative statistics. The results are as follows: 1) Freshippo stores which offer services of “new retail” mainly for communities are evenly dispersed in Shenzhen City. Most Freshippo stores are located at the edges of commercial circles, but with lots of service-blank areas. Cainiao stations which mainly provide parcel collection & delivery service for communities have large and contiguous service range covering various facilities. Most of Cainiao stations are close to the entrances of various facilities. 2) Both Freshippo stores and Cainiao stations are market-oriented and community-targeted. Freshippo stores are located in the urban business circle while Cainiao stations are located in the community life circle. Freshippo stores and Cainiao stations have similar and complementary features in terms of operating mode, service targets, and spatial distribution, and offer different solutions for terminal logistics, which proves the feasibility of the connection between them. 3) The optimization of the terminal logistics network can be achieved through transforming the logistics distribution mode of community-oriented new retail from "self-operated" to "self-operated + release". A delivery chain of "new retail stores - delivery riders-parcel collection and delivery points - community residents" will be established through optimization. 4) The optimization of the connection between community-oriented new retail stores and parcel collection & delivery points has a significant positive impact on the expansion of service scope and the coverage of facilities of community-based new retail stores. Meanwhile, to realize the fairness and raise efficiency in space, the new retail stores can adapt to different consumption scenarios in various regions.

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Development stage segmentation and characteristics of urban integration area in China based on the space of flows
SHEN Lizhen, CHEN Shaojie, WANG Xia
2021, 40 (9):  2558-2571.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200966
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Urban integration is of great significance in promoting the flow of regional factors and narrowing the regional development gap. Such areas are a typical example of a coordinated region. This paper uses a multi-factor measurement of the space of flows to explore how to analyze a quantitative aspect in the stage of urban integration in China. In this paper, we synthesize multiple related factors including the flows of people, information and economy, etc. and evaluate the degree of closeness in connection between cities of urban integration and based on the quantitative measurement and spatial visualization. We explore the spatial pattern of the urban integration and divide the development stages, and further analyze the individual stage characteristics on a category basis. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: firstly, the spatial pattern of the space of flows' connection strength between the cities in the urban integration area in China shows that the southern and central regions are developing at a rapid pace, the development process between regions is quite different, while there is no obvious spatial difference between East, West, North and South. Secondly, viewing from the point of the space of flows, the development of urban integration areas in China can be divided into four stages, which shows a pyramid-like distribution pattern in terms of quantity and quality. Thirdly, there is no correlation between the space of flows' connection strength and the total resident population and GDP of a certain area. Fourthly, there are periodical characteristic differences in infrastructure, administrative cooperation, public services, industrial cooperation, market development and other aspects in urban areas with different connection strengths of the space of flows. In order to promote urban integration in China, we propose to romote the flow of regional factors and strengthen the co-construction of infrastructure in urban integration areas. Meanwhile, we should respect the objective rules of development of urban integration areas, and clarify the tasks and emphasis in each development stage.

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The evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of the coupling and coordination between economic growth kinetic energy conversion and green development
GAI Mei, QIN Bing, ZHENG Xiuxia
2021, 40 (9):  2572-2590.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200702
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There is a close connection between green development and kinetic energy conversion. A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed based on the connotations of the two. The study analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of the coupling and coordination of the two systems in China’s 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2008 to 2018, using the coupling coordination relative development model, spatial autocorrelation, center of gravity and standard deviation ellipse model. And the following conclusions are drawn: (1) Both the comprehensive index of green development and kinetic energy conversion fluctuate and rise, but show a pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with the highest level in the eastern coastal area. (2) The degree of coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion in various provinces has been improved year by year, gradually forming a Ⅲ-shaped tiered development pattern, with the eastern coastal area as the axis spreading to the central and western regions. (3) The degree of coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion has a remarkable positive spatial correlation. The majority of the provinces fall into the "low-low" category, and the high-value and low-value areas tend to be polarized. (4) From 2008 to 2018, the center of gravity of the coupling coordination degree mainly moved to the southwest, and the coupling coordination degree dispersed to the southwest. The spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion in the eastern, central and western regions are different. The eastern region shows a dispersed trend of moving in the southwest direction, the central region shows a centralized trend of moving in the southwest direction, and the western region shows a gathering trend of migration in the southeast direction.

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Analysis on the national geo-setting of geo-strategic intersection area: Take Ukraine as an example
YE Shuai, HU Zhiding, GE Yuejing, HUANG Yu, HU Wei
2021, 40 (9):  2591-2605.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201033
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The research of geo-setting is the realistic demand of strengthening the study of world geography and the innovative transformation of the revival of domestic geopolitics under the Belt and Road Initiative. The current research on geo-setting focuses on the level of standardized guidelines for the analysis of universal attributes, but the objective existence of spatial heterogeneity requires the classification discussion and analysis of geo-setting. Based on the spatial perspective of geo-strategic practice, this paper identifies three types of national geo-setting: single strategy, strategic intersection, and permanent neutrality, and constructs an analytical framework of strategic intersection type of national geo-setting oriented by national crisis events. This paper takes Ukraine as an example to carry out empirical research. The results show that: (1) Ukraine presents significant regional differences in both physical geography, social, economy, and culture, which provides the possibility and operability for the intervention of external forces. (2) Under the influence of causality, the common Slavic historical origin leads to the high degree of dependence of Ukraine on Russia in the social and cultural field. Under the influence of subjective construction, Russia, Europe, and the United States are actively constructing the geographical relationship with Ukraine for its unqiue strategic position and superior resource conditions. However, the subjectively constructed relations based on national interests fluctuate violently. At the same time, the maintenance time of bilateral mutual construction is longer than that of unilateral construction. (3) Russia, Europe, the United States, and Ukraine have formed not only spatial and material dominant structure, but also implicit subjective structure, and historical evolution process structure among them. Under the comprehensive action of the significantly different geographical environments, highly dependent geopolitical relationships, and inter-subject geopolitical structures, Ukraine has witnessed frequent crisis events within the country. The significance of this study lies in the fact that, for China, in the critical period of the rise, deepening the research on the national geo-setting in the geostrategic intersection area has a certain reference value to deal with the geo-crisis events in the surrounding areas.

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Driving factors and carbon transfer of industrial carbon emissions in Guangdong province under the background of industrial transfer
WANG Shaojian, TIAN Shasha, CAI Qingnan, WU Huiqing, WU Canxi
2021, 40 (9):  2606-2622.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200916
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The continuous increase of industrial carbon emissions, one of the causes for global warming, has become a hot topic, which attracts wide attention in the world. At the same time, the spatial remodeling and differences of industrial carbon emissions are caused by industrial upgrades and transfers. Therefore, these topics have consisted of a new direction for research related with low-carbon city construction. This article uses methods, such as carbon emissions material balance method and structural decomposition model, to calculate the carbon emissions of various industries in Guangdong's cities at the prefecture level, from 2001 to 2017. Besides, this article analyzes the driving factors of industrial carbon emissions differences and explores the pattern of industrial transfer and its carbon transfer under the background of industrial transfer policies in Guangdong. With the above methods and models, the study found that, as a whole, industrial carbon emissions of the province showed an increasing trend, and regional differences gradually increased, which means that the gap among cities has enlarged during the period 2001-2017 in terms of industrial carbon emissions. The distribution pattern of industrial carbon emissions within the province showed that a trend of changing from spreading from a single core to the surroundings to eventually evolving into a “fractal T-shaped” pattern. The environmental effects brought by the development of the industrial industry are determined comprehensively by three factors, which are the economic scale, industrial structure, and technological strength. Among them, the scale effect has the largest influence, while the structure factor is rather weak. The technical effect can play a more important role in regions with low-carbon emission intensity. The Pearl River Delta region is the place where the main high-energy-consuming industries are transferred out, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is relatively large. The cities of eastern and western Guangdong are the main places where the medium-energy-consuming and high-energy-consuming industries are transferred in, and the inter-annual change in carbon emissions is small.

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Construction of risk assessment model of water resources carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
YU Haozhe, LI Lijuan, LI Jiuyi
2021, 40 (9):  2623-2637.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201055
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Focusing on issues of increasing pressure of water demand and water overload in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, an important national strategic area, and based on the theory of water resources carrying capacity, the risk assessment was introduced into water resources carrying system, and the theoretical systems of water resources carrying capacity risk were explored such as the concept and connotation, factor identification and evaluation models. Considering the key factors such as climate change, urbanization and industrial structure changes that affect the water resources carrying system, the hazard, vulnerability and exposure assessment models of water resources carrying capacity risk were constructed by using the metrological geography methods, remotely sensed retrieval model and geographic information technology. This study aims to objectively reflect the future characteristics of water resources carrying status and the law of risk evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that: (1) The future average value of the comprehensive hazard index in the study region is 0.53, which belongs to the middle risk level, with the risk level of population growth and urbanization being the highest in the future (0.68, high risk), followed by climate change risk (0.47, medium risk) and economic and industrial development risk (0.25, weak risk). (2) In the future, the vulnerability degree is increasing, and the average vulnerability index is 0.72, which belongs to high vulnerability level. (3) In the future, the average exposure index is 0.48, which belongs to the middle exposure level and shows an increasing trend, of which the overall exposure of the study area is the strongest in 2035. (4) In the years of 2025, 2030 and 2035, the average value of water resources carrying capacity risk index will increase by 9.3%, 11.5% and 13.9% compared with 2016 in this region. The number of high-risk cities will increase from 3 in 2016 to 9 in 2035, which shows that in the future, the risk degree of water resources carrying will increase, the risk disturbance of water resources carrying system will be strong, and the possibility of water resources overloading will increase, especially in Beijing and southern Hebei.

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Progress and prospects of geography in public health: A review of literature abroad
XU Yunfan, HUANG Xianjin
2021, 40 (9):  2638-2656.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020201058
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World Health Organization defines health as ‘a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity’. Therefore, public health, the art and science of promoting health, is an interdisciplinary field which benefits from communication of different research perspectives. Of these perspectives, geography has a unique advantage in that space and health are intrinsically linked. The geographical context of places and the connectedness between places together play a major role in shaping public health. These features allow geography to theorize the associations between different variables and health from a unique angle of view and tackle public health challenges around the world. Many core geographical research themes in recent years, including inequalities, urbanization, and globalization, are directly related to public health. However, with the definition of health and public management constantly evolving, public health and geography research starting stressing emphasis on socio-economic factors, and crises like climate change and COVID-19 pandemic bringing external pressure, the geographical dimension of public health research has become much more complex and experienced many changes in connotation, theory, content and methodology. This paper starts with a brief review which shows relevant literatures at home and abroad have both experienced a slow rise, an accelerated rise, and the current rapid rise, but are divided in perspectives and topics concerned. It is worth noting that numbers of both reached a maximum in 2020. Then the paper is organized in a set of theories, methods and topics which have dominated much of the recent literature abroad: neighborhood effect, therapeutic landscapes, post-humanist thoughts, evolving quantitative and qualitative methods, healthy aging, health inequalities, and urban planning measures aimed at promoting residents’ health. In particular, it points out current opportunities in which global crises such as climate change and COVID-19 pandemic opened up for geographical research. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to examine recent research in the geographical dimension of public health research abroad; second, to introduce relevant theories, methods, and topics which might prove valuable to support future quests and build in-depth research on domestic public health problems.

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Evaluation and trade-offs of ecosystem services in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under multi-scenario simulation
LIN Meizhen, LIU Hanyi, ZHOU Rubo, GONG Jianzhou
2021, 40 (9):  2657-2669.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200943
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The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is facing the challenge of the increasingly serious lack of ecosystem services, which greatly hinders the implementation of the national construction strategy and the sustainable economic development of the Greater Bay Area. It is critical to understand the quantification of ecosystem services trade-offs / synergies relationships in urban agglomeration so as to enhance the overall effectiveness of ecosystem services and maintenance. Two models are introduced in this paper. Firstly, a future land-use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model was employed for a 12-year (up to 2030) land-use distribution under three scenarios, namely, history trend, planning and ecological protection, respectively. Secondly, 4 ecosystem services from 1995 to 2030, which are water service, the carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and food supply, are evaluated by using InVEST model in the study area. Then, trade-off or collaborative relationship between each pair of ecosystem service types are explored and discussed. The results are as follows. (1) The water service increased from 1995 to 2008 while the carbon sequestration, soil conservation and food supply decreased. (2) Each ecological service exhibits an obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity, in which the water services of areas with high value increase while areas with low value decrease; the carbon sequestration drops greater in lower value area than in the other. Except Hong-Kong, soil conservation of other areas have showed a decreasing trend, which are found sporadically in the entire area; the high and reduced food supply are distributed in central regions such as Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. (3) Optimal status can be reached for the four ecosystem services, namely, water service under planning scenario, carbon sequestration and soil conservation under ecological protection scenario, food supply under history trend scenario, and comprehensive benefit of ecosystem service under ecological protection scenario. (4) The maximized trade-off relationship between ecosystem services are observed under history trend scenario and the maximized synergies relationship under ecological protection scenario, which witnessed has a stable development trend in 1995-2018. In summary, the estimation of ecosystem service of the Greater Bay Area and explanation to the mechanism of the synergistic effects of the ecosystem service with the ecological coupling models can bring to light the relationship and mechanism among different ecosystem services, and further provide reference for regional ecosystem service management and socio-economic development plan.

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Study on hydrological drought index based on GAMLSS: Taking Manas River Basin as an example
CHEN Fulong, YANG Kuan, CAI Wenjing, LONG Aihua, HE Xinlin
2021, 40 (9):  2670-2683.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200927
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The traditional hydrological drought index is determined under the condition of nonstationary. However, the identification accuracy of this index is questioned, especially under the dramatical climate change, the application of appropriate drought index can increase the accuracy of drought warning. In general, under nonstationary conditions, the probability distribution parameters of drought index are generally considered to be subject to linear or nonlinear changes of time or other covariables. Therefore taking Kenswatt Station in the Manas River Basin as an example, we built a GAMLSS model with time as the covariable. The standardized runoff index SRIns in the case of nonstationary was established and compared with the standardized runoff index SRIs in the case of stationary, and the applicability of SRIns was discussed. The results show that: (1) During 1957-2014, the variation trend of runoff was more obvious than that of precipitation and temperature at Kanswatt Station. The change of runoff was mainly concentrated in autumn and winter, while the change trend of precipitation was not obvious in each month of the year, while the change of temperature was more fluctuant in spring and summer. (2) By comparing historical drought events recorded in the study area from 1957 to 2014, SRIns can identify drought events more accurately. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events identified by SRIns was higher than that of SRIs. (3) Drought characteristic variables were identified by Run theory. The fitting accuracy of drought duration series can be improved by using uniform distribution and randomization of drought characteristic variables. The results of cumulative probability show that the optimal distribution functions of the drought characteristic variable series of SRIns and SRIs are lognormal distribution. (4) The optimal Copula function of the two-dimensional joint distribution of drought characteristic variables of SRIns and SRIs is Joe function. By comparing the two-dimensional joint probability and return period of drought characteristic variables, SRINS can reduce the risk interval and increase the accuracy of drought risk warning, so it is more suitable for drought prediction and risk assessment in the study area.

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Impacts of apple tree planting on deep soil water content and groundwater recharge for the Loess Tableland of China
CHENG Liping, WANG Yaping, QI Guang
2021, 40 (9):  2684-2694.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200908
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As an important component of terrestrial water resources, soil water and groundwater are critical factors in forestry development and human life on the Loess Plateau of China. In the past 20-30 years, large areas of farmland were converted to apple orchards, which resulted in excessive consumption of deep soil water and reduction of groundwater recharge. To quantify the impacts of apple trees on soil moisture and groundwater recharge, the soil water content and chloride concentration of soil water in 0-20 m deep profile were measured in apple orchards with different ages on the Changwu Tableland. The results showed that: the soil water content in apple orchard along the deep profile decreased from shallow to deep layer with increasing tree age, and the mean soil water contents in 5-yr, 10-yr, 13-yr, 15-yr, 18-yr, 20-yr, and 27-yr apple orchards were 20.84%, 20.31%, 19.23%, 17.88%, 15.54%, 14.93%, and 13.38%, respectively. The soil water storage in deep profile decrease in invert “S” with tree age and stabilized after 27 years. The conversion from farmland to apple orchards increased soil water depletion and further deepened the accumulation of Cl - in the deep profile. The average Cl- concentrations of soil water within 4-10 m layer in farmland, 10-yr, and 27-yr apple orchards were 30.8, 36.6, and 114.3 mg/L, respectively. Both the Cl- profiles and the 1963-tritium peak in the homogeneous loess profile reflected that the piston flow formed in the wet years is the dominant mechanism for deep percolation and groundwater recharge in the Loess Tableland. The average infiltration rate of groundwater recharge in cropland was 105 mm/a, and the average recharge rate was 30.2 mm/a, accounting for 5.2% of the annual precipitation. The conversion from farmland to apple orchard led to severely dried soil layer in the deep profile, further prevented the recharge of rainfall to groundwater and weakened the dominance of piston flow in the process of groundwater recharge. Therefore, an appropriate areal proportion between farmland and apple orchard should be coordinated based on the policy guidance, so as to achieve sustainable recharge and utilization of groundwater resources for the Loess Tableland.

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Academic Review
Sense of academic history, citation and academic accumulation in China:A personal perception based on human geography research and reading experience
TANG Maolin
2021, 40 (9):  2695-2703.  doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200981
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When Chinese scholars are engaged in academic writing, the concept of honest citation based on the consciousness of academic history is still relatively weak, and only in the project application of National Science Foundation of China the academic citation behavior is much more suitable, so that some of our academic ideas cannot be attributed to the original person. Such an embarrassing situation directly affects the accumulation, improvement and influence of Chinese academics. It is time to change the old academic culture that does not engage in serious dialogue with peers, pays less attention to academic history, and insufficient citations and cites dishonestly. Historically, China is a country that does not pay enough attention to academic history and academic norms, and has its own academic citation tradition. Adherence to academic norms is the basic requirement of learning, and scholars must be self-disciplined in order to win the respect of other scholars. The honest citation of related research literature is one of the basic norms for academic research, and it is also one of the preconditions for the use of bibliometrics research. To change the situations of academic "self-injury" brought by dishonest citation, as well as the problematic citation trends of Anglo-Americanization, small circle, and only journal papers, scholars first need to treat academic citation issue from the height of cultural confidence. Due to the possible failure of self-discipline, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of academic product standards and to establish a special office of academic integrity, which may reverse the academic atmosphere and form a positive incentive. It is a necessary way to build an academic power in the world academy. In graduate education, it is necessary to provide courses of academic norms and academic writing, so as to guide the academic newcomers to obey the academic norms, and to cite literature honestly. For scholars, only by writing carefully and standardized, honestly quoting documents, carefully reviewing articles and projects and put forward constructive opinions, starting from me and doing small things, can academic inheritance and innovation be realized.

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