Quantitative evaluation of regional geo-setting under hedging strategies of state actors: A case study of the South China Sea

LIN Yao; HU Zhiding; XU Zonghuang; GONG Yanwei

doi:10.11821/dlyj020240883

Abstract

In the context of great power regional projection, countries surrounding the South China Sea have adopted uncertain hedging strategies based on their geographical environment and geopolitical relationships. These strategies manifest as fluctuations in conflict and cooperation with major powers, subsequently influencing regional geo-structures. This study constructs an analytical framework for regional geo-setting under national hedging behavior, aiming to quantitatively assess the stability of the South China Sea geo-setting and explore the hedging strategies of various countries and their influencing factors within the context of U.S.-China strategic competition. The findings are as follows: ① Based on the imbalance degree of the geo-setting calculated from the network structure imbalance, the study period can be divided into three phases: overall stability (2000-2011), deterioration of the situation (2012-2018), and volatility of the situation (2018-2023). Two key drivers shape the evolution of geo-setting stability: intensifying great power competition and growing hedging strategies adopted by smaller countries. ② Since 2000, both China and the United States have seen an upward trend in their geo-position in the South China Sea, with both countries continuously increasing their power investments in the region. ③ Through a corroborative analysis of the structural imbalance evolution curve and interactions among key geopolitical actors, this study demonstrates that the assessment results align with the security situation in the South China Sea. This alignment validates the applicability of the analytical framework and quantitative method for assessing geo-setting in regions characterized by geopolitical-strategic intersection. This study provides a novel quantitative approach for assessing and analyzing geo-structures in the South China Sea and other geopolitically intersecting regions, thereby contributing to an objective depiction of geo-setting evolution, a better understanding of security situations, and decision support for sustainable peace, security, and difference management among regional countries.

Key words： geo-setting; geo-structure; social balance theory; hedging strategies; South China Sea

Cite this article

LIN Yao , HU Zhiding , XU Zonghuang , GONG Yanwei . Quantitative evaluation of regional geo-setting under hedging strategies of state actors: A case study of the South China Sea[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2026 , 45(4) : 855 -870 . DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020240883

真诚感谢二位匿名审稿专家在论文评审中付出的时间和精力，评审专家对本文逻辑结构、定量方法的应用等方面提出的诸多具体建议，使本文获益匪浅。

References

Publishing order | Descend order by publishing year | Descend order by cited within

[1]	索尔·科恩. 地缘政治学:国际关系的地理学. 严春松, 译. 上海: 上海社会科学院出版社, 2011. [Cohen S. Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations. Yan Chunsong, trans. Shanghai: Shanghai Academy of Social Science Press, 2011.]

[2]	Ó Tuathail G. Critical Geopolitics. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1996.

[3]	Luttwak E N. From geopolitics to geo-economics: Logic of conflict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, 1990: 17-23.

[4]	胡志丁, 张喆, 赵路平. 地缘环境研究的理念及议程与路径. 地理学报, 2023, 78(1): 198-213. DOI [Hu Zhiding, Zhang Zhe, Zhao Luping. Geo-setting research: Idea, agenda and approaches. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(1): 198-213.] DOI

[5]

胡志丁, 张喆, 马腾, 等. 在学科发展的演变中理解和把握地缘政治及地缘政治学: 兼论对地缘环境研究的启示. 地理科学, 2022, 42(1): 54-64.

DOI

[Hu

Zhiding

, Zhang

Zhe

, Ma

Teng

, et al. To understand and grasp “geopolitik” and the discipline of geopolitics in the evolution of disciplinary development: The discussion on the enlightenment of geo-setting research. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2022, 42(1): 54-64.]

DOI

[6]	胡伟, 胡志丁, 葛岳静. 中国地缘环境研究进展与思考. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(4): 477-488. DOI [Hu Wei, Hu Zhiding, Ge Yuejing. Review of geo-setting research in China. Progress in Geography, 2019, 38(4): 477-488.] DOI

[7]

胡志丁, 杜德斌. 日本德川幕府时期的地缘环境分析: 兼论国别地缘环境分析框架. 地理学报, 2020, 75(10): 2047-2060.

DOI

[Hu

Zhiding

, Du

Debin

. An investigation of Japanese geo-setting during the period of Tokugawa Bakufu: A tentative examination of the analytical framework for geo-setting research. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2047-2060.]

DOI

[8]	张喆, 胡志丁. 基于国别地缘环境视角解析缅甸民主化改革进程. 地理研究, 2022, 41(11): 3051-3068. DOI [Zhang Zhe, Hu Zhiding. The analysis of the process of Myanmar's democratization reform from the perspective of the national geo-setting. Geographical Research, 2022, 41(11): 3051-3068.]

[9]	王丰龙. 地缘环境评估中的尺度陷阱. 人文地理, 2022, 37(2): 24-30. [Wang Fenglong. Scalar traps in assessment of geo-setting. Human Geography, 2022, 37(2): 24-30.]

[10]	王萍, 杜德斌, 胡志丁. 约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘环境研究. 地理学报, 2023, 78(1): 214-229. DOI [Wang Ping, Du Debin, Hu Zhiding. The geo-setting of transboundary water conflicts of the Jordan River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(1): 214-229.] DOI

[11]	马腾, 李永宁, 李一杰, 等. 北极地缘环境解析与中国的应对之策: 以“冰上丝绸之路”为例. 热带地理, 2021, 41(6): 1142-1152. DOI [Ma Teng, Li Yongning, Li Yijie, et al. Geo-setting in the Arctic and countermeasures of China: A case study of the “Polar Silk Road”. Tropical Geography, 2021, 41(6): 1142-1152.] DOI

[12]

富宁宁, 牛福长, 葛岳静, 等. 大国战略交汇区小国地缘环境及其对冲战略响应: 以菲律宾与中美为例. 地理研究, 2024, 43(7): 1627-1643.

DOI

[Fu

Ningning

, Niu

Fuchang

, Ge

Yuejing

, et al. Geo-setting and hedging strategy responses of small states in an area of strategic intersection: A case study of the Philippines, China, and the United States. Geographical Research, 2024, 43(7): 1627-1643.]

[13]	常耀伟, 张晶, 韩志军, 等. 合作视角下的印太地区国家地缘军事关系网络演化研究. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(8): 1-15. DOI [Chang Yaowei, Zhang Jing, Han Zhijun, et al. The evolution of geo-military relations network of IndoPacific countries based on cooperation perspective. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(8): 1-15.] DOI

[14]	秦奇, 吴良, 李飞, 等. 基于社会网络分析的东南亚地缘关系研究. 地理学报, 2018, 73(10): 2014-2030. DOI [Qin Qi, Wu Liang, Li Fei, et al. A social-network-based study on geo-relations in Southeast Asia. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(10): 2014-2030.] DOI

[15]

翟晨阳, 杜德斌, 侯纯光, 等. 基于合作与冲突视角的“亚洲水塔”周边国家地缘关系网络演化研究. 地理研究, 2021, 40(11): 3118-3136.

DOI

[Zhai

Chenyang

, Du

Debin

, Hou

Chunguang

, et al. The evolution of geo-relation network in countries around the Asian Water Tower based on cooperation and conflict perspectives. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(11): 3118-3136.]

[16]	杜树坤, 张晶, 韩志军, 等. 基于GDELT事件数据的东南亚国家地缘政治风险测度与分析. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(4): 13-23. DOI [Du Shukun, Zhang Jing, Han Zhijun, et al. Measurement and analysis of geopolitical risk in Southeast Asian countries based on GDELT event data. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(4): 13-23.] DOI

[17]	阎学通, 周方银. 国家双边关系的定量衡量. 中国社会科学, 2004(6): 90-103, 206. [Yan Xuetong, Zhou Fangyin. A quantitative measurement of international bi-lateral political relations. Social Sciences in China, 2004(6): 90-103, 206.]

[18]	胡志丁, 葛岳静, 徐建伟. 尺度政治视角下的地缘能源安全评价方法及应用. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 853-862. DOI [Hu Zhiding, Ge Yuejing, Xu Jianwei. Geopolitical energy security evaluation method and its application based on politics of scale. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(5): 853-862.]

[19]	杨文武, 涂晶. 中巴经济走廊建设的地缘风险评价研究. 南亚研究季刊, 2018(1): 76-85, 6. [Yang Wenwu, Tu Jing. Evaluating geo-strategic risks on CPEC. South Asian Studies Quarterly, 2018(1): 76-85, 6.]

[20]	张强, 杜德斌, 郭卫东, 等. 全球能源结构性权力时空格局演变及其关键驱动因素. 地理学报, 2023, 78(9): 2316-2337. DOI [Zhang Qiang, Du Debin, Guo Weidong, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and key drivers of global energy structural power. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(9): 2316-2337.] DOI

[21]	孙楚仁, 陈瑾, 张楠. 金砖国家出口的地缘结构差异及其解释. 亚太经济, 2017(3): 120-129, 197. [Sun Churen, Chen Jin, Zhang Nan. The geographical structure differences and explanation in the export of BRICS. Asia-pacific Economic Review, 2017(3): 120-129, 197.]

[22]	胡志丁, 林瑶. 地缘位势与双边关系的互动规律探讨: 以中美在东盟十国地缘博弈为例. 经济地理, 2023, 43(7): 27-41. DOI [Hu Zhiding, Lin Yao. Exploring the interaction between geo-potential and bilateral relations: A case study of the geopolitical game between China and the United States in ASEAN. Economic Geography, 2023, 43(7): 27-41.] DOI

[23]	赵文双, 江南, 陈云海, 等. 基于对象流的地缘环境时空分析模型. 地球信息科学学报, 2022, 24(8): 1432-1444. DOI [Zhao Wenshuang, Jiang Nan, Chen Yunhai, et al. A spatio-temporal analysis model of geo-setting based on object flow. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2022, 24(8): 1432-1444.]

[24]	李振福. 北极地缘政治的多尺度特征: 兼论北极问题与南海问题的本质不同. 东北亚论坛, 2021, 30(2): 41-59, 127. [Li Zhenfu. Study on multi-dimension features of Arctic geopolitics: Also on the essential differences between the Arctic issue and the South China Sea issue. Northeast Asia Forum, 2021, 30(2): 41-59, 127.]

[25]	富宁宁, 葛岳静, 李彦征, 等. 南海周边国家对中国的对冲强度演变及对冲战略. 地理学报, 2024, 79(8): 2097-2114. DOI [Fu Ningning, Ge Yuejing, Li Yanzheng, et al. The evolution of hedging intensity and hedging strategies of countries surrounding the South China Sea towards China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2024, 79(8): 2097-2114.] DOI

[26]	Wang T T, Chen S Y, Gong Y W, et al. Evolution of the South China Sea geo-pattern based on the “geo-potential-strategic triangle” framework. Ocean & Coastal Management, 2024, 248: 106963.

[27]	王学文. 多元地缘体互动下南海地缘环境演变及其原因分析. 昆明: 云南师范大学硕士学位论文, 2023. [Wang Xuewen. Geo-setting Evolution of the South China Sea Under the Interaction of Multiple Geo-actors and Its Cause Analysis. Kunming: Master Dissertation of Yunnan Normal University, 2023.]

[28]	张祖林, 孙爱军. 结构主义与结构主义地理学. 自然辩证法研究, 1996, 12(2): 28-32, 64. [Zhang Zulin, Sun Aijun. Structuralism and structuralist geography. Studies in Dialectics of Nature, 1996, 12(2): 28-32, 64.]

[29]	帕特里克·贝尔特, 菲利佩·卡雷拉·达·席尔瓦. 十二世纪以来的社会理论. 瞿铁鹏, 译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2014:14-17. [Baert P, Silva F C D. Social Theory since the Twelfth Century. Qu Tiepeng, trans. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2014:14-17.]

[30]	郭树勇, 叶凡美. 试论建构主义国关理论及其社会学渊源. 国际观察, 2002(1): 1-6. [Guo Shuyong, Ye Fanmei. Temporary comments on the theory of constructivism and its sociological origin. International Survey, 2002(1): 1-6.].

[31]	胡志丁, 葛岳静, 徐建伟, 等. 空间与经济地理学理论构建. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(6): 676-685. [Hu Zhiding, Ge Yuejing, Xu Jianwei, et al. Space and the theoretical construction of economic geography. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(6): 676-685.] DOI

[32]	胡志丁, 陆大道. 地缘结构: 理论基础、概念及其分析框架. 地理科学, 2019, 39(7): 1045-1054. DOI [Hu Zhiding, Lu Dadao. Geo-structure: Theoretical basis, concept and analytical framework. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(7): 1045-1054.] DOI

[33]	Ake C. A definition of political stability. Comparative Politics, 1975, 7(2): 271-283. DOI

[34]	Margolis J E. Understanding political stability and instability. Civil Wars, 2010, 12(3): 326-345. DOI

[35]	Wright J R, Goldberg A S. Risk and uncertainty as factors in the durability of political coalitions. The American Political Science Review, 1985, 79(3): 704-718. DOI

[36]	王栋. 国际关系中的对冲行为研究: 以亚太国家为例. 世界经济与政治, 2018(10): 21-49, 157. [Wang Dong. Hedging in international relations: The cases of the Asia Pacific countries. World Economics and Politics, 2018(10): 21-49, 157.]

[37]	Heider F. Attitudes and cognitive organization. The Journal of Psychology, 1946, 21(1): 107-112. DOI

[38]	Rawlings C M, Friedkin N E. The structural balance theory of sentiment networks. American Journal of Sociology, 2017, 123(2): 510-548. DOI

[39]	Cartwright D, Harary F. Structural balance: A generalization of Heider's theory. Psychological Review, 1956, 63(5): 277-293. DOI

[40]	Harary F. On the measurement of structural balance. Behavioral Science, 1959, 4(4): 316-323. DOI

[41]	Estrada E, Benzi M. Walk-based measure of balance in signed networks: Detecting lack of balance in social networks. Physical Review E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2014, 90(4): 042802.

[42]	Situngkir H, Khanafiah D. Social balance theory: Revisiting Heider's balance theory for many agents. University Library of Munich, Germany, 2004.

[43]	Burghardt K, Maoz Z. Dyadic imbalance in networks. Journal of Complex Networks, 2020, 8: cnaa001.

[44]	Kinne B J, Maoz Z. Local politics, global consequences: How structural imbalance in domestic political networks affects international relations. The Journal of Politics, 2023, 85(1): 107-124. DOI

[45]	胡志丁, 刘玉立, 李灿松, 等. 权力、地缘环境与地缘位势评价: 以中日钓鱼岛之争为例. 热带地理, 2014, 34(1): 50-57. [Hu Zhiding, Liu Yuli, Li Cansong, et al. Power, geo-setting and evaluation method of geo-potential: A case study of the dispute over China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands. Tropical Geography, 2014, 34(1): 50-57.]

[46]	王周瑜. 地缘位势与双边关系的互动规律探讨. 昆明: 云南师范大学硕士学位论文, 2022: 47. [Wang Zhouyu. Discussion on the Interaction between Geopotential and Bilateral Relations. Kunming: Master Dissertation of Yunnan Normal University, 2022: 47.]

[47]	陈小强, 袁丽华, 沈石, 等. 中国及其周边国家间地缘关系解析. 地理学报, 2019, 74(8): 1534-1547. DOI [Chen Xiaoqiang, Yuan Lihua, Shen Shi, et al. Analysis of the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries. Acta Geogra-phica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1534-1547.]

[48]	彭飞, 李淑琴. 基于事件数据的南海周边主要国家地缘关系演化分析. 热带地理, 2022, 42(7): 1061-1072. DOI [Peng Fei, Li Shuqin. Evolution of the geo-relations between major countries around the South China Sea based on event data analysis. Tropical Geography, 2022, 42(7): 1061-1072.] DOI

[49]	吴士存. 南海缘何再度成为大国角逐的舞台. 学术前沿, 2021(3): 14-27. [Wu Shicun. Why has the South China Sea become a competing arena for the great powers? Frontiers, 2021(3): 14-27.]

[50]	吴心伯. 试析布什政府对华安全政策的核心概念. 美国研究, 2007, 21(4): 7-22, 3. [Wu Xinbo. An analysis of the core concepts of the bush administration's security policy toward China. American Studies Quarterly, 2007, 21(4): 7-22, 3.]

模态框（Modal）标题

Abstract

Cite this article

References