长江沿江地区化工产业空间格局演化及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180027

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于企业数据和空间计量方法,探讨了长江沿江地区2000—2013年化工产业空间格局演化及影响因素。结果表明：化工产业主要分布在上海市和江苏沿江地区;中上游部分地区化工产业呈现明显的增长势头,由3个主要热点区发展到20余个不同规模大小的分布热点,成为化工产业新兴“增长极”;城市主城区化工产业减少而远郊区县增加,分布热点变化也反映了化工产业“郊区化”“园区化”的过程;相对低端基础的行业呈现集聚趋势,其中肥料业集聚明显;相对高端精细的行业呈现扩散趋势,其中合成材料业分散化明显;地区化工产业增长受到环境规制、外商投资、交通区位等因素显著影响,外商投资和交通区位具有显著的促进作用,而环境规制呈现显著的抑制效果。

关键词: 化工产业, 空间格局, 影响因素, 环境规制, 长江沿江地区

Abstract:

Layout of industrial activity has always been the hot topic in research field of economic geography. With environmental problems arousing people's more and more attention and the concept of environmental economic geography being proposed in recent years, industrial layout especially pollution intensive industrial layout from the perspective of environmental regulation is of great significance. Chemical industry including petrochemical industry (hereinafter referred to as chemical industry) is not only an important basic industry sector to support economic development and national defense construction, but also the typical pollution intensive industries which are sensitive to environmental regulation. The regions along the Yangtze River (including 27 cities, from Yibin to Shanghai) are considered as the study area of this paper, where typical cities and manufacturing industry belt in China are located. Based on the chemical enterprises data and spacial measurement methods, chemical industrial spatial evolution and its influencing factors in the study area from 2000 to 2013 are discussed. The results show that the main chemical industries in the regions along the Yangtze River are located in the Yangtze River Delta especially in the regions surrounding the Taihu Lake. Chemical industry production share of urban counties was greatly reduced and that of its suburban counties along the Yangtze River was raised which reflects the suburbanization process of chemical industry from urban areas to suburbs. Main foci of enterprises are located in Shanghai and cities along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu province where enterprise hot spots are concentrated. Enterprise hot-spots in middle and upper regions along the Yangtze River developed from three regions (i.e. Wuhan urban area, Chongqing urban area and Changshou) in 2000 to more than 20 regions with different sizes including Yunxi and Dongzhi in 2010 and 2013, which are new growth poles of chemical industry. The sectors of relatively low technology dependence, low value-added products and intensive environmental pollution tend to be concentrated (e.g. fertilizer sector), whereas relatively high-end and fine sectors show a trend of diffusion (e.g. synthetic material). Chemical industrial spatial layout and evolution are affected by factors of environmental regulation, foreign direct investment and traffic location, among which environmental regulation shows significant inhibition effect on growth of chemical industry, and foreign investment and traffic location present significant promoting effect.

Key words: chemical industry, spatial pattern, influencing factors, environmental regulation, the regions along the Yangtze River

邹辉, 段学军. 长江沿江地区化工产业空间格局演化及影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(4): 884-897.

Hui ZOU, Xuejun DUAN. Spatial evolution of chemical industry and its influencing factors in the regions along the Yangtze River[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(4): 884-897.

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城市/年份	2000	2005	2010	2013	城市/年份	2000	2005	2010	2013
安庆	36	30	73	99	苏州	331	547	948	703
常州	234	405	623	388	泰州	93	188	328	253
池州	6	10	32	44	铜陵	9	15	30	24
鄂州	22	15	18	25	无锡	309	415	652	354
恩施	14	10	13	16	芜湖	17	25	73	62
黄冈	42	49	74	64	武汉	83	101	152	127
黄石	15	17	36	38	咸宁	10	15	33	60
荆州	45	53	81	73	扬州	99	151	242	181
九江	23	43	68	94	宜宾	20	31	40	36
泸州	22	36	47	40	宜昌	33	50	67	108
马鞍山	14	28	36	45	岳阳	43	94	161	173
南京	210	270	322	252	镇江	114	165	261	226
南通	119	256	493	409	重庆	169	192	337	269
上海	655	1058	1189	792	总计	2787	4269	6429	4955

解释变量	变量代码	指标选择	指标解释
环境规制	REG	环境规制强度	反映地区环境规制水平
外商投资	FOR	实际使用外资（亿美元）	反映外商投资情况
科技投入	TEC	科学技术支出占财政支出比例（%）	科技投入对地区生产技术、污染防治技术皆有积极作用,采用该项指标表征技术方面的影响
交通区位	TRS	货运量中水运占比（%）	化工产业很大程度依赖水运,采用货运量中水运比重指标来表征
劳动力成本	SAL	职工平均工资（万元）	劳动力成本往往是制造业的重要成本之一,用地区职工平均工资来表征
市场需求	MAR	年末总人口（千万人）	市场需求很大程度上依赖于消费需求,而消费需求往往依赖于人口规模,采用人口指标一定程度上表征化工产品的市场需求
产业基础	IND	上一年产业产值（万元）	采用上一年度的产业产值指标来表征已有产业总量对新增产业量的影响

行业\城市	2000年	2013年
炼油业	上海、南京	上海、南京、岳阳
炼焦业	南京、上海、岳阳、安庆、武汉	黄石、铜陵、重庆、镇江
化学原料业	上海、苏州、无锡	南京、上海、南通
肥料业	重庆、南京、无锡、泸州	宜昌、重庆
农药业	苏州、荆州、上海	南通、南京
涂料业	上海、苏州	上海、常州、苏州
合成材料业	南京、上海、苏州	上海、无锡、南通、扬州、苏州
专用化学品业	上海、南京、无锡	苏州、南通、镇江、无锡
炸药焰火业	上海、苏州、无锡、南京	岳阳、重庆、宜宾、安庆
日用化学品业	上海、苏州	上海、苏州

变量（被解释变量）	2001年				2013年
变量（被解释变量）	回归系数	标准差	t值	P值	回归系数	标准差	t值	P值
C	-1.428	1.177	-1.213	0.225	0.372	0.360	1.033	0.302
REG	-0.229	0.383	-0.599	0.549	-0.293	0.163	-1.800	0.072
FOR	0.117	0.027	4.392	0.000	0.018	0.004	4.771	0.000
TEC	0.197	0.254	0.777	0.437	-0.074	0.041	-1.803	0.071
TRS	0.002	0.012	0.184	0.854	0.006	0.003	1.839	0.066
SAL	0.940	1.165	0.807	0.420	-0.042	0.092	-0.457	0.648
MAR	0.153	0.246	0.623	0.533	-0.549	0.150	-3.665	0.000
IND	-0.119	0.050	-2.367	0.018	-0.048	0.027	-1.804	0.071