上海计算机产业转移及其对区域经济影响

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180394

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自2008年全球金融危机之后,全球生产网络重组对中国区域经济的影响日益浮现。上海计算机制造业持续向重庆等地转移,重构了该行业全球生产网络的基本格局。利用上海市投入-产出表以及中国工业企业数据库、企业年报等,采用结构分解等方法分析上海计算机制造业产业变化,结合制造业多样性指数等指标,评估产业转移对区域经济的影响。研究发现：① 上海计算机产业被锁定在全球价值链低端的组装制造环节,2007—2012年,增加值率（增加值与总产出的比值）从7.38%下降为4.29%;劳动者报酬占增加值比例从22.06%上涨为67.97%,推动产业对外迁移。② 受上海市产业转移和国际市场低迷等因素影响,2007—2012年,上海计算机制造业总产出减少了483.9亿元。③ 制造业多样性指数较高的浦东新区受到计算机产业转移的影响较小,制造业多样性指数相对较低且计算机制造业占制造业总产值比例较高的闵行区、松江区在一定时期内仍然面临着计算机产业转移的负面影响。为了降低全球生产网络“去耦合”的冲击,提高区域经济的韧性,上海需要从全球生产网络的成熟产品生产平台转型为新产品研发创新枢纽,提高劳动生产率和产业增加值率,推动产业结构多样化。

关键词: 计算机制造业, 产业转移, 结构分解分析, 制造业多样性指数, 上海

Abstract:

The impacts of "decoupling" global production networks on China's regional economies have become more pronounced since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Shanghai's computer manufacturing industries are being relocated, especially to Chongqing, an inland Chinese city. Drawing upon Shanghai's Input-Output tables and industrial databases, this study employs structural decomposition method and industrial diversity index to characterize structural changes in Shanghai's computer manufacturing industries and assess the corresponding regional economic impacts. More specifically, this study finds that: (1) As Shanghai's computer manufacturing industries have been 'locked' in the assembly process within the global value chain, the decreasing value added rates and increasing labor costs are driving firms away from Shanghai. (2) The total economic outputs of Shanghai's computer manufacturing industries decreased by 48.39 billion Yuan during 2007-2012, mainly due to shrinking domestic market and technological changes. (3) The relocation of computer manufacturing industries has limited impacts on the Pudong New Area, which has a more diverse industrial base. By contract, Minhang district and Songjiang district, with less diverse industries, are hit hard by the relocation of computer manufacturers. In order to accommodate the impacts of "decoupling" global production networks and improve regional economic resilience, Shanghai needs to become a research and development hub within global production networks, have higher labor productivity and value-added rates, as well as host a diversified industrial structure.

Key words: computer manufacturing industry, industrial relocation, structural decomposition analysis, industrial diversity index, Shanghai

李仙德,张旭亮,李卫江,温家洪. 上海计算机产业转移及其对区域经济影响[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(8): 1919-1931.

LI Xiande,ZHANG Xuliang,LI Weijiang,WEN Jiahong. The relocation of Shanghai's computer manufacturing industries and its regional economic impacts[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(8): 1919-1931.

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核心零部件	广达集团主要供应商	英业达集团主要供应商
中央处理器（CPU）	英特尔（美国）、超微半导体（美国）	英特尔（美国）、超微半导体（美国）、威盛电子（中国台湾省）
液晶显示器	友达（中国台湾省）、奇美（中国台湾省）、LG（韩国）、三星（韩国）	LG（韩国）、三星（韩国）、群创光电（中国台湾省）
硬盘驱动器	日立（日本）、希捷科技（美国）、西部数据（美国）	东芝（日本）、昱科环球存储（美国）、希捷（美国）
光盘驱动器（ODD）	松下产业（日本）、日立乐金数据储存（日韩合资）	-
电池	新普科技（中国台湾省）、松下产业（日本）	-

产业	最终消费变化的影响	投资变化的影响	调入及进口替代变化的影响	调出变化的影响	出口变化的影响	技术变化的影响	总产出变化
计算机	1.98	-7.98	-312.67	-743.40	1486.98	-908.81	-483.90
通信设备	-8.57	34.69	-233.85	318.98	574.18	-138.54	546.89
电子元器件	1.67	-4.63	70.57	245.82	-475.09	141.06	-20.60
视听、广电、雷达其他电子设备	-0.42	-1.60	-52.50	82.59	69.34	-67.71	29.71

指标	计算机制造业	全部制造业
2007年总产值（亿元）	3112.84	21525.61
2013年总产值（亿元）	2268.49	29692.99
总产值变化（亿元）	-844.35	8167.38
2007年人均总产值（万元）	240.36	85.14
2013年人均总产值（万元）	216.77	72.60
人均总产值变化（万元）	-23.59	-12.54
2007年从业人员（人）	129509	2528217
2013年从业人员（人）	104649	4089749
从业人员变化（人）	-24860	1561532

区域	行业	2007年总产值 (亿元)	2007年总产值占该区比例(%)	2013年总产值(亿元)	2013年总产值占该区比例(%)	2007—2013年总产值变化(亿元)
浦东新区	计算机	536.11	8.97	407.15	4.91	-128.96
浦东新区	全部制造业	5979.07	100.00	8288.79	100.00	2309.72
闵行区	计算机	549.09	19.03	530.99	15.75	-18.10
闵行区	全部制造业	2885.34	100.00	3589.18	100.00	487.07
松江区	计算机	1958.67	58.09	1296.75	38.31	-661.92
松江区	全部制造业	3371.76	100.00	3384.47	100.00	12.71