地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 427-436.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180526
何蕾1, 李国胜2(), 李阔3, 张悦2,4, 郭腾蛟2,4
收稿日期:
2018-05-30
修回日期:
2018-12-14
出版日期:
2019-02-20
发布日期:
2019-02-20
作者简介:
作者简介:何蕾(1986- ),女,江西南昌人,助理研究员,主要研究方向为海岸带环境变化等。
基金资助:
Lei HE1, Guosheng LI2(), Kuo LI3, Yue ZHANG2,4, Tengjiao GUO2,4
Received:
2018-05-30
Revised:
2018-12-14
Online:
2019-02-20
Published:
2019-02-20
摘要:
在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69~11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。
何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 张悦, 郭腾蛟. 珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(2): 427-436.
Lei HE, Guosheng LI, Kuo LI, Yue ZHANG, Tengjiao GUO. Benefit-cost analysis of engineering adaptation for storm surge risk in coastal areas: A case study on the Pearl River Delta[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(2): 427-436.
表3
未来不同情景下无防护措施的损失及完全防护时的投入和净收益(亿元)"
风暴潮重现期 | 2030年 | 2050年 | 2100年 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
损失 | 投入 | 收益 | 损失 | 投入 | 收益 | 损失 | 投入 | 收益 | |||
100年一遇 | 342.77 | 254.47 | 88.29 | 345.14 | 257.41 | 87.73 | 350.95 | 264.77 | 86.19 | ||
50年一遇 | 318.63 | 226.40 | 92.24 | 321.30 | 229.34 | 91.96 | 327.82 | 236.69 | 91.12 | ||
20年一遇 | 281.18 | 188.84 | 92.35 | 284.37 | 191.78 | 92.60 | 292.14 | 199.13 | 93.01 | ||
10年一遇 | 246.43 | 159.58 | 86.85 | 250.20 | 162.52 | 87.68 | 259.33 | 169.87 | 89.46 |
[1] |
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
doi: 10.1080/03736245.2010.480842 |
[2] |
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
doi: 10.1007/BF00524943 |
[3] | IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014. |
[4] |
Muis S, Verlaan M, Winsemius H C, et al.A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 2016, 7: 11969.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms11969 pmid: 4931224 |
[5] |
Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls R J, et al.Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3: 802-806.
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1979 |
[6] | 邓辉, 王洪波. 1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征. 地理研究, 2015, 34(12): 2343-2354. |
[Deng Hui, Wang Hongbo.Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 1368 to 1911. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(12): 2343-2354.] | |
[7] |
杨桂山. 中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向. 自然灾害学报, 2000, 9(3): 23-30.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2000.03.004 |
[Yang Guishan.Historian change and future trends of storm surge disaster in China's coastal area. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2000, 9(3): 23-30.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2000.03.004 |
|
[8] |
石先武, 高廷, 谭骏, 等. 我国沿海风暴潮灾害发生频率空间分布研究. 灾害学, 2018, 33(1): 49-52.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.01.010 |
[Shi Xianwu, Gao Ting, Tan Jun, et al.Research on occurrence frequency of storm surge disaster distribution in the coastal area of China. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(1): 49-52.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.01.010 |
|
[9] | 国家海洋局. 海洋灾害公报, , 2017-10-11. |
[State Oceanic Administration, People's Republic of China. China Marine Disaster Bulletin, , 2017-10-11.] | |
[10] |
江金波, 唐金稳. 珠江三角洲旅游创新的协调发展研究: 基于二象对偶理论视角. 地理研究, 2018, 37(9): 1751-1761.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201809008 |
[Jiang Jinbo, Tang Jinwen.The coordinated development of regional tourism innovation in the Pearl River Delta: Based on interduality theory. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(9): 1751-1761.]
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201809008 |
|
[11] | 康蕾, 马丽, 刘毅. 珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389. |
[Kang Lei, Ma Li, Liu Yi.Loss evaluation of farmland caused by sea level rise and storm suge in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change. Acta Geographica Sinca, 2015, 70(9): 1375-1389.] | |
[12] | 李阔, 李国胜. 气候变化影响下2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮风险评估. 科技导报, 2017, 35(5): 89-95. |
[Li Kuo, Li Guosheng.Risk assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong province in year 2050 under climate change. Science and Technology Review, 2017, 35(5): 89-95.] | |
[13] | 李国胜, 李阔. 广东省中部沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险综合评估. 西南大学学报: 自然科学版, 2013, 35(10): 1-9. |
[Li Guosheng, Li Kuo.Integrated assessment on risk of storm surges in the central coastal area of Guangdong province. Journal of Southwest University: Natural Science Edition, 2013, 35(10): 1-9.] | |
[14] |
Anthoff D, Nicholls R J, Tol R S J. The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2010, 15(4): 321-335.
doi: 10.1007/s11027-010-9220-7 |
[15] |
Wahl T, Mudersbach C, Jensen J.Statistical assessment of storm surge scenarios within integrated risk analyses. Coastal Engineering Journal, 2015, 57(1): 1-19
doi: 10.1142/S0578563415400033 |
[16] |
Sun Z, Huang S, Nie H, et al.Risk analysis of seawall overflowed by storm surge during super typhoon. Ocean Engineering, 2015, 107: 178-185.
doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.07.041 |
[17] |
冯爱青, 高江波, 吴绍洪, 等. 气候变化背景下中国风.\暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(11): 1411-1419.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.011 |
[Feng Aiqing, Gao Jianbo, Wu Shaohong, et al.A review of storm surge disaster risk research and adaptation in China under climate change. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(11): 1411-1419.]
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.011 |
|
[18] | 张平, 孔昊, 王代锋, 等. 海平面上升叠加风暴潮对2050年中国海洋经济的影响研究. 海洋环境科学, 2017, 36(1): 129-35. |
[Zhang Ping, Kong Hao, Wang Daifeng, et al.The impact of sea-level rise superimposed storm surges on China's ocean economy in 2050. Marine Environmental Science, 2017, 36(1): 129-135.] | |
[19] |
谌晓东. 珠江三角洲堤防、护岸设计中选择亲水平台高程需考虑的几个因素. 广东水利水电, 2005, (2): 66-67.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0112.2005.02.025 |
[Chen Xiaodong.Several factors to be considered in the design of embankment in the Pearl River Delta. Guang Dong Water Resources and Hydropower, 2005, (2): 66-67.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0112.2005.02.025 |
|
[20] |
黄镇国, 张伟强, 吴厚水, 等. 珠江三角洲2030年海平面上升幅度预测及防御方略. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2000, 30(2): 202-208.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2000.02.014 |
[Huang Zhenguo, Zhang Weiqiang, Wu Houshui, et al.Prediction and defensive strategy of sea level rise in the Pearl River Dleta in 2030. Scientia Sinica: Terrae, 2000, 30(2): 202-208.]
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1006-9267.2000.02.014 |
|
[21] |
黄镇国, 张伟强, 赖冠文, 等. 珠江三角洲海平面上升对堤围防御能力的影响. 地理学报, 1999, 54(6): 518-525.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.1999.06.005 |
[Huang Zhenguo, Zhang Weiqiang, Lai Guanwen, et al.The influence of sea level rising on the embankments in the Pearl River Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1999, 54(6): 518-525.]
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.1999.06.005 |
|
[22] | 张俊香, 卓莉, 刘旭拢. 广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析: 模糊数学方法. 自然灾害学报, 2010, 19(1): 116-121. |
[Zhang Junxiang, Zhuo Li, Liu Xulong.A fuzzy mathematical for socio-economic vulnerability analysis of typhoon storm surge in Guangdong province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2010, 19(1): 116-121.] | |
[23] |
魏晓宇, 刘雪峰. 闸坡站风暴潮增水与热带气旋登陆点及路径的关系. 台湾海峡, 2010, 29(1): 122-7.
doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.1000-8160.2010.01.018 |
[Wei Xiaoyu, Liu Xuefeng.Relation between storm surge and elements of landing location and path of tropical cyclone at Zhapo station. Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait, 2010, 29(1): 122-127.]
doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.1000-8160.2010.01.018 |
|
[24] | 甘雨鸣, 唐永明, 刘美南. 珠江口台风暴潮的数值计算. 中山大学学报: 自然科学版, 1991, 30(4): 1-8. |
[Gan Yuming, Tang Yongming, Liu Meinan.Numerical simulation of the typhoon surge in Pearl River Estuary. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 1991, 30(4): 1-8.] | |
[25] |
李阔, 李国胜. 广东沿海地区风暴潮易损性评估. 热带地理, 2011, 31(2): 153-8, 77.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5221.2011.02.006 |
[Li Kuo, Li Guosheng.A storm surge vulnerability assessment for coastal Guangdong. Tropical Geography, 2011, 31(2): 153-158, 177.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5221.2011.02.006 |
|
[26] |
李阔, 李国胜. 珠江三角洲地区风暴潮重现期及增水与环境要素的关系. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(4): 433-438.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.007 |
[Li Kuo, Li Guosheng.Calculation of return period for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta region. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(4): 433-438.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.007 |
|
[27] |
董剑希, 李涛, 侯京明, 等. 广东省风暴潮时空分布特征及重点城市风暴潮风险研究. 海洋学报: 中文版, 2014, 36(3): 83-93.
doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.009 |
[Dong Jianxi, Li Tao, Hou Jingming, et al.The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of storm surge in Guangdong province and storm surge hazard study at Yangjiang city. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2014, 36(3): 83-93.]
doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.009 |
|
[28] | 广东省防汛防旱防风总指挥部. 广东水旱风灾害. 广州: 暨南大学出版社, 1997. |
[Guangdong Headquarter Office of Control of Flood, Wind & Drought. Flood, Drought and Typhoon Disaster in Guangdong. Guangzhou: Jinan University Press, 1997.] | |
[29] | 于谨凯, 魏云. 基于集对分析法的海洋经济系统脆弱性评价研究. 海洋经济, 2016, 6(2): 26-33. |
[Yu Jinkai, Wei Yun.Evaluation studies on marine economic system's vulnerability based on set pair analysis. Marine Economy, 2016, 6(2): 26-33.] | |
[30] |
贾慧聪, 潘东华, 王静爱, 等. 自然灾害适应性研究进展. 灾害学, 2014, 29(4): 122-128.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.04.023 |
[Jia Huicong, Pan Donghua, Wang Jingai, et al.Research progress of adaptation to natural disasters. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014, 29(4): 122-128.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.04.023 |
|
[31] |
潘家华, 郑艳. 适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(10): 1-5.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.001 |
[Pan Jiahua, Zheng Yan.Analytical framework and policy implications on adapting to climate change. China Population Resource and environment, 2010, 20(10): 1-5.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.001 |
|
[32] | Smith B, Pllifosova O.From adaptation to adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction. In: Smith J B, Klein R J T, Huq S. Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development. London: Imperial College Press, 2003: 9-28. |
[33] |
Davlasheridze M, Atoba K O, Brody S, et al.Economic impacts of storm surge and the cost-benefit analysis of a coastal spine as the surge mitigation strategy in Houston-Galveston area in the USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018: 1-26.
doi: 10.1007/s11027-018-9814-z |
[34] |
Hallegatte S, Ranger N, Mestre O, et al.Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: A case study on Copenhagen. Climatic Change, 2011, 104(1): 113-137.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9978-3 |
[35] |
Peng B, Song J.A case study of preliminary cost-benefit analysis of building levees to mitigate the joint effects of sea level rise and storm surge. Water, 2018, 10(2): 169.
doi: 10.3390/w10020169 |
[36] |
Li K, Li G.Risk assessment on storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong province. Natural Hazards, 2013, 68(2): 1129-1139.
doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0682-2 |
[37] |
He L, Li G, Li K, et al.Estimation of regional sea level change in the Pearl River Delta from tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2014, 141: 69-77.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2014.02.005 |
[38] | 林琛琛. 不同海平面上升情景模拟下海岸带灾害损失评估. 厦门: 厦门大学硕士学位论文, 2014. |
[Lin Chenchen.The evaluation of disaster loss in coastal zone under different sea level rise scene simulation: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta region. Xiamen: Master Dissertation of Xiamen University, 2014.] | |
[39] | 谭丽荣, 陈珂, 王军, 等. 近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价. 地理科学, 2011, 31(9): 1111-7. |
[Tan Lirong, Chen Ke, Wang Jun, et al.Assessment on storm suge vulnerability of coastal regions during the past twenty years. Scientia Geographica Sinica. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(9): 1111-1117.] | |
[40] |
Muir Wood R, Drayton M, Berger A, et al.Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2005, 363(1831): 1407-1422.
doi: 10.1098/rsta.2005.1575 pmid: 16191657 |
[41] | 李宏. 基于国民财富损失控制的自然灾害防灾减灾研究. 大连: 东北财经大学博士学位论文, 2011. |
[Li Hong.An inquiry into natural disaster prevention and mitigation based on controlling losses of natural wealth. Dalian: Doctoral Dissertation of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2011.] | |
[42] | 杜碧兰. 海平面上升对中国沿海主要脆弱区的影响及对策. 北京: 海洋出版社, 1997. |
[Du Bilan.The Impact of Sea Level Rise on the Main Vulnerable Areas in China's Coastal Areas and the Countermeasure. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 1997.] | |
[43] |
何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 等. 1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201405016 |
[He Lei, Li Guosheng, Li Kuo, et al.Changes and trends of sea level in the Pearl River Delta in the last 50 years. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000.]
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201405016 |
[1] | 李涛, 张维阳, 曹小曙, 汪丽, 张隆. 珠江三角洲城际轨道网络结构:基于连接、容量和流量的对比[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(11): 2730-2744. |
[2] | 江金波, 唐金稳. 珠江三角洲旅游创新的协调发展研究——基于二象对偶理论视角[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(9): 1751-1761. |
[3] | 程佳佳, 王成金, 何嘉明. 国际码头企业的珠江三角洲进入路径与空间网络[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(7): 1314-1328. |
[4] | 何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 崔林林, 任惠茹. 1959年来珠江三角洲地区的海平面变化与趋势[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(5): 988-1000. |
[5] | 薛德升, 林韬, 黄耿志. 珠三角外向型制造业非正规部门的形成发展机制——以广州市狮岭镇皮具产业为例[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(4): 698-709. |
[6] | 李涛, 曹小曙, 黄晓燕. 珠江三角洲交通通达性空间格局与人口变化关系[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(9): 1661-1672. |
[7] | 叶玉瑶, 张虹鸥, 许学强, 周春山. 珠江三角洲建设用地扩展与经济增长模式的关系[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(12): 2259-2271. |
[8] | 郑芷青, 谢小保, 欧阳友生, 王春华, 曾海燕, 陈仪本. 珠江三角洲城市群大气微生物优势种群及时空分异特征[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 625-633. |
[9] | 黄耀丽, 李凡, 郑坚强, 李飞. 珠江三角洲城市旅游竞争力空间结构体系初探[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(4): 730-740. |
[10] | 胡伟平, 杨国清, 吴志峰, 何建邦. 珠江三角洲城镇建筑覆盖近期变化研究[J]. 地理研究, 2003, 22(6): 780-788. |
[11] | 孙贤国, 陈艳. 澳门与珠江三角洲地区经济发展的协同作用分析[J]. 地理研究, 1999, 18(4): 337-341. |
[12] | 方国祥, 李平日, 黄光庆. 珠江三角洲8000年来海平面变化*[J]. 地理研究, 1991, 10(4): 2-11. |
|