珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180526

地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 427-436.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180526

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析

何蕾¹, 李国胜²(), 李阔³, 张悦^2,⁴, 郭腾蛟^2,⁴

1. 江西师范大学地理与环境学院,鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌 330022
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
3. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081
4. 中国科学院大学,北京,100049

收稿日期:2018-05-30 修回日期:2018-12-14 出版日期:2019-02-20 发布日期:2019-02-20
作者简介:
作者简介：何蕾（1986- ）,女,江西南昌人,助理研究员,主要研究方向为海岸带环境变化等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41571041,41871026）;鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室主任开放基金（ZK2015001）

Benefit-cost analysis of engineering adaptation for storm surge risk in coastal areas: A case study on the Pearl River Delta

Lei HE¹, Guosheng LI²(), Kuo LI³, Yue ZHANG^2,⁴, Tengjiao GUO^2,⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2018-05-30 Revised:2018-12-14 Online:2019-02-20 Published:2019-02-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69~11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。

关键词: 风暴潮灾害, 工程性适应, 损益分析, 珠江三角洲

Abstract:

Sea level rise will magnify the adverse impact of storm surges on the coast, and extreme high water level will increase the risk of coastal damage. To mitigate the impacts of extreme events, building levees is chosen to be a corresponding engineering adaptation strategy to protect the infrastructure. This paper investigated the economic impacts of storm surge and sea level rise based on the historical disaster dataset in the Pearl River Delta. First, the protection level of the levees in the PRD was identified, and the relationship between economic damage and surge was discussed by analyzing the historical disaster data. Then the loss due to storm surge was calculated from the relationship between the rate of damage (direct economic loss/GDP) and surges. And the cost of heightening levees was deduced. Then a theoretical model that quantitatively evaluates the effects of building levees was established by conducting benefit-cost analysis, according to which, the benefit of heightening levees is the difference between the loss due to storm surge with no adaptation and the cost of heightening levees for protection. Finally, the model was applied to calculate the effects of heightening levees under different future scenarios. The results showed that the rate of storm surge damage was positively correlated with storm surge in the Pearl River Delta. The coastal areas will benefit from implementing levee projects with the height in the range of 1.69-11.85 m. The benefit was approaching a maximum at a height of 5.22 m, and it decreased and became negative while the height is higher than 11.85 m. Under the scenarios of 2030, 2050 and 2100, the largest benefits occurred when the levee was designed to combat a 20-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100, and the smallest occurred in a 100-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100. The research will provide important scientific basis for coastal areas to cope with and adapt to sea level rise and storm surge events.

Key words: storm surge, engineering adaptation, benefit-cost analysis, Pearl River Delta

何蕾, 李国胜, 李阔, 张悦, 郭腾蛟. 珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(2): 427-436.

Lei HE, Guosheng LI, Kuo LI, Yue ZHANG, Tengjiao GUO. Benefit-cost analysis of engineering adaptation for storm surge risk in coastal areas: A case study on the Pearl River Delta[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(2): 427-436.

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	直接经济损失	增水	GDP	人口	面积	灾损率
直接经济损失	1.00	0.17	-0.08	0.03	-0.04	0.78^**
灾损率	0.78^**	0.26^**	-0.18	-0.08	-0.16	1.00

风暴潮重现期	2030年	2050年	2100年
100年一遇	6435.80	6510.20	6696.20
50年一遇	5725.80	5800.20	5986.20
20年一遇	4775.80	4850.20	5036.20
10年一遇	4035.80	4110.20	4296.20

风暴潮重现期	2030年			2050年			2100年
风暴潮重现期	损失	投入	收益	损失	投入	收益	损失	投入	收益
100年一遇	342.77	254.47	88.29	345.14	257.41	87.73	350.95	264.77	86.19
50年一遇	318.63	226.40	92.24	321.30	229.34	91.96	327.82	236.69	91.12
20年一遇	281.18	188.84	92.35	284.37	191.78	92.60	292.14	199.13	93.01
10年一遇	246.43	159.58	86.85	250.20	162.52	87.68	259.33	169.87	89.46

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析

Benefit-cost analysis of engineering adaptation for storm surge risk in coastal areas: A case study on the Pearl River Delta

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