地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 2565-2577.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180551

• 观点与争鸣 •    下一篇

贸易保护如何改变中国光伏出口目的国格局?

朱向东1,2, 贺灿飞1,2,*(), 朱晟君1   

  1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
    2. 北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-23 修回日期:2019-05-18 出版日期:2019-11-20 发布日期:2019-12-02
  • 通讯作者: 贺灿飞
  • 作者简介:朱向东(1990-),男,安徽阜南人,博士研究生,研究方向为国际贸易、环境与区域经济。E-mail: zxd_simple@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41731278);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(41425001)

How does protectionism change the pattern of the destinations of Chinese photovoltaic export?

ZHU Xiangdong1,2, HE Canfei1,2,*(), ZHU Shengjun1   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2018-05-23 Revised:2019-05-18 Online:2019-11-20 Published:2019-12-02
  • Contact: HE Canfei

摘要:

以欧美对中国光伏反倾销、反补贴(“双反”)事件为例,使用网络分析研究2009—2015年世界光伏贸易格局,以Logit模型探讨2009—2011年和2011—2013年中国210个地级市与175个目的国的光伏贸易演变。结果表明,“双反”后中国与欧美贸易量急剧下降,与非“双反”国家贸易量有所提升,主要目的国从德国、荷兰、意大利和美国转向日本、韩国、印度和新加坡。政策激励促进光伏出口,且“双反”后政策效力增强。出口关联显著提升正常贸易环境下出口增长,“双反”后则为负向作用。加工贸易比重高的区域受到贸易保护冲击更为严重。市场多元化不能缓冲“双反”冲击,目的国中心性高有利于建立稳健贸易联系。政策激励在光伏贸易中作用突出,减少直接补贴,增加创新奖励是政策优化方向。

关键词: 光伏, 反倾销, 反补贴, 网络分析, 加工贸易, 政策激励

Abstract:

In recent years, export-oriented development strategy in China is facing serious challenges under the prevailing trend of protectionism. Focusing on the anti-dumping and countervailing (AD) policy adopted by EU and US after 2011, this article tries to explain the dynamic of photovoltaic (PV) trade between China and other countries. We apply network analysis to investigate the pattern of PV trade during 2009 to 2015. And Logit model is utilized to find out the influencing factors that affect the pattern of PV destinations of prefectural cities in China in 2009-2011 and 2011-2013, respectively. The results show that, (1) the volume of trade between China and countries with AD policy dropped sharply after 2011, while the volume of export from China to countries beyond EU and US enjoys increase. The main destinations transferred from Germany, Netherlands, Italy and US to Japan, South Korea, India and Singapore. (2) Incentives can promote the export of PV products under marketization. Moreover, when some countries apply protectionism, appropriate policies play an important role in maintaining the pattern of trade and reducing the fluctuation of export. (3) Exporting relatedness of PV products can promote the growth of exports significantly in the first period. However, the effects of relatedness reversed after 2011, which indicates that export of Chinese prefecture-level cities are following new routines in front of trade protectionism. (4) Trade type of PV products only become significant in the second period, and the more processing trade a city has the worse its export situation would be. This results indicate that common trade is more robust than processing trade. (5) The diversification of market is not able to resist the negative effects of trade protection, which suggests that there is a threshold for market diversification to reduce the effect of protectionism. At the same time countries with high centrality are conducive to the growth of PV exports in prefectural cities. Based on the results we argue that, to guarantee the effect of diversification of market, it is necessary to establish export links with countries different from each other. Although trade protectionism leads to severe damage to Chinese PV industry, it also accelerates the transition from processing trade to common trade. After a short period of pain, it will be beneficial to the rise of Chinese PV industry. Appropriate policy cannot be underestimated in the rise of PV, especially in the context of trade protectionism.

Key words: photovoltaics, anti-dumping, countervailing, network analysis, processing trade, policy