中国地级单元城镇化与经济发展关系的时空格局——基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据的探析

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180811

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城镇化与经济发展水平之间关系的空间格局研究,对区域城镇化与经济发展道路的选择具有更加明确的实际指导意义。基于2000年、2010年人口普查数据,利用统计分析对近期城镇化与经济发展的地级单元格局演变特征进行揭示,借助象限图法对二者关系进行定量识别,结合空间自相关分析对二者关系分布的空间关联效应进行探讨。得出以下结论：① 东部沿海地区、内陆省会城市及资源富集型的北方边境沿线部分地级单元城镇化与经济发展水平相对较高;西南地区、青藏高原地区及中原传统农区城镇化与经济发展水平则较低。中国地级单元城镇化与经济发展水平呈显著正相关,在0.01显著性水平下,两个年份二者相关系数分别为0.684和0.741。② 地级尺度上城镇化与经济发展关系存在着显著的区域差异,城镇化滞后型、基本协调型和超前型并存。省域内部地级单元二者关系的分布模式具有相似性,即省会城市通常城镇化超前,省内边缘城市多城镇化滞后。③ 中国地级单元城镇化与经济发展水平关系的分布呈现出显著的空间关联与集聚效应,二者关联集聚程度有所弱化。两个年份,东北地区是中国地级单元城镇化超前型集中分布区,长三角城市群城镇化滞后的态势有所弱化,青藏高原地区城镇化滞后的态势渐趋增强,北方边境沿线资源富集型地级单元由城镇化超前型演变为城镇化滞后型。④ 中国地级单元城镇化与经济发展关系的类型区变化存在着一定程度的路径依赖效应,“滞后-滞后”型和“超前-超前”型地级单元合占研究单元总数的73%,且二者空间分异特征明显。

关键词: 城镇化, 经济发展水平, 关系, 时空格局, 地级单元, 中国

Abstract:

The study on the spatial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic development has a more clearly practical significance for the choice of regional urbanization and economic development path. However, the existing research on the relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development (RCUED) lacks the fine depiction of the prefecture-level units. Using 2000 and 2010 census data and the statistical analysis method, we uncovered the evolution characteristics of China’s urbanization and economic development and conducted a quantitative identification for the RCUED with improved methods using the quadrant map approach. In addition, we investigated the spatial correlation effect of the RCUED using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method. The results were as follows: 1) In general, a high degree of matching exists between China’s urbanization and economic development at prefecture-level units at the significance level of 0.01. The correlation coefficients between China’s urbanization and economic development in 2000 and 2010 were 0.684 and 0.741, respectively. 2) A significant regional difference exists in the RCUED at prefecture-level units. Based on a comparative analysis of 341 prefecture-level units in China in the two years, we found that prefecture-level units can be categorized as under-urbanization, basic coordination and over-urbanization in various areas. The distribution of the relationship between the urbanization and the economic development within provinces was similar, that is, most of the provincial capital cities were ahead of urbanization. 3) The distribution of the RCUED presents a significant spatial correlation and agglomeration effect. Over time, the spatial dependency of the RCUED has weakened and the spatial heterogeneity has increased. Northeast China has always been an area characterized by over-urbanization. The number of prefecture-level units classified as under-urbanization has begun to decline in Yangtze River Delta, and that of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has gradually increased.Meanwhile, prefecture-level units rich in resources have transformed from over-urbanization into under-urbanization along the northern border. There is a certain degree of path dependence effect in the change of typological areas of the RCUED. Units with “ Under-urbanization-under-urbanization” and units with “over-urbanization-over-urbanization” account for 73% of the total number of prefecture-level units in China, and they have evident spatial differentiation characteristics.

Key words: urbanization, economic development, relationship, spatial-temporal pattern, prefecture-level units, China

杨振, 张小雷, 李建刚, 雷军, 段祖亮. 中国地级单元城镇化与经济发展关系的时空格局——基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据的探析[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(1): 25-40.

YANG Zhen, ZHANG Xiaolei, LI Jiangang, LEI Jun, DUAN Zuliang. The spatial-temporal pattern of the relationship between urban-ization and economic development at prefecture-level units in China: A quantitative analysis based on 2000 and 2010 census data[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(1): 25-40.

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城镇化类型	2000年城镇化率（%）	2000年人均GDP（元）	2010年城镇化率（%）	2010年人均GDP（元）
严重超前型	66.4（1.80）	8461（1.07）	73.9（1.47）	34531（1.12）
中度超前型	48.5（1.31）	7235（0.91）	63.3（1.26）	36044（1.17）
轻微超前型	44.4（1.20）	8386（1.06）	55.6（1.11）	34766（1.13）
基本协调型	30.4（0.82）	5449（0.69）	42.6（0.85）	24255（0.79）
轻微滞后型	26.6（0.72）	5826（0.73）	42.7（0.85）	30630（0.99）
中度滞后型	36.7（0.99）	11046（1.39）	43.9（0.87）	40813（1.32）
严重滞后型	48.6（1.32）	19580（2.47）	63.1（1.25）	85999（2.79）

类型	个数	2000年		2010年
类型	个数	城镇化率（%）	人均GDP（元）	城镇化率（%）	人均GDP（元）
“滞后-滞后”型	138	30.3（0.82）	8280（1.04）	43.6（0.87）	34919（1.13）
“超前-超前”型	112	47.6（1.29）	8134（1.02）	59.8（1.19）	34957（1.13）
“滞后-超前”型	52	33.4（0.91）	8477（1.07）	49.7（0.99）	29276（0.95）
“超前-滞后”型	39	33.2（0.90）	5194（0.65）	42.9（0.85）	30741（1.00）