产业集聚与城镇空间格局的耦合关系及时空演化——以长三角区域为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj020180985

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

产业集聚与城镇空间格局的变动之间存在着密切的联系。针对两者之间的耦合关系及时空演化问题,构建区域产业集聚与城镇空间格局演化综合评价指标,并利用1990—2016年长三角区域16个城市的统计数据,基于面板回归模型和空间重心模型探究两系统之间演化的互动作用关系和时空演化。结果表明：长三角区域的产业集聚与城镇空间格局间存在较显著的耦合关系;长三角区域各市区的耦合协调度及空间匹配度均稳步提升,但长三角区域耦合协调发展程度不够均衡,长三角南部的耦合协调的发展程度稍弱于长三角区域北部的发展;在近几十年的发展中,长三角北部地区逐渐形成以上海-南京为轴线的耦合协调发展区域,整个长三角区域的耦合协调则呈现“Z”字形特征。

关键词: 产业集聚, 城镇空间演化, 耦合度, 长江三角洲

Abstract:

There is a close relationship between industrial agglomeration and changes in urban spatial patterns. This article is aimed at the coupling relationship between regional industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern, so as to construct comprehensive evaluation indicators of regional industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern evolution, and explore the interaction and spatial-temporal evolution between the two systems through the panel regression model and spatial center of gravity model by using statistics from 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1990 to 2016. The results show that there is a significant coupling relationship between industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern in the study area. Coordination degree and spatial matching degree of various urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta region are steadily increasing. However, the degree of coupling and coordinated development in this region is not balanced enough. The degree of coupling and coordination in the southern part of the Yangtze River Delta is slightly weaker than that in the northern part. In the development of recent decades, the northern part of the delta gradually formed a coupling and coordinated development area with Shanghai-Nanjing as the axis, and the coupling coordination of the entire Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by a "Z" shape.

Key words: industrial agglomeration, urban spatial evolution, coupling, Yangtze River Delta

曹炳汝, 孙巧. 产业集聚与城镇空间格局的耦合关系及时空演化——以长三角区域为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(12): 3055-3070.

CAO Bingru, SUN Qiao. Research on the coupling relationship and spatial-temporal evolution between industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2019, 38(12): 3055-3070.

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耦合协调区间	D的取值范围	耦合协调类型	耦合协调作用解释
不可接受区间	0.00~0.20 0.21~0.40	极度失调衰退类一般失调衰退类	耦合作用极不明显,有序性非常差。耦合作用不明显,有序性差。
过渡区间	0.41~0.50 0.51~0.60	勉强耦合协调类初级耦合协调类	存在一定的耦合作用,但影响作用不大。存在较强的耦合作用,初步协调。
可接受区间	0.61~0.80 0.81~1.00	良好耦合协调类优质耦合协调类	存在较强的耦合作用,协调程度大。耦合作用极强,协调作用极强。

省份	长三角区域所包含的地级市
江苏省	苏州、无锡、常州、南京、镇江、南通、扬州、泰州
浙江省	宁波、杭州、嘉兴、湖州、绍兴、舟山、台州
上海市	-

一级指标	二级指标	单位
产业集聚	建成区单位土地面积产值	亿元/km²
	规模以上工业总产值	亿元
	第二产业产值占GDP的比例	%
	第三产业产值占GDP的比例	%
城镇空间格局	城镇建成区面积	km²
	城镇人口密度	人/km²
	人均城市道路面积	m²
	万人拥有公共汽车	辆

	1990—1999			2000—2009		2010—2016		1990—2016
	ISI	UI		ISI	UI	ISI	UI	ISI	UI
苏州市	0.143		0.129	0.397	0.304	0.829	0.510	0.415	0.293
无锡市	0.130		0.163	0.309	0.345	0.557	0.486	0.307	0.314
常州市	0.103		0.139	0.247	0.269	0.465	0.376	0.250	0.249
南京市	0.112		0.188	0.243	0.424	0.459	0.636	0.250	0.392
镇江市	0.098		0.125	0.216	0.232	0.416	0.353	0.224	0.224
南通市	0.098		0.130	0.275	0.241	0.511	0.391	0.270	0.239
扬州市	0.107		0.124	0.232	0.209	0.444	0.282	0.241	0.197
泰州市	0.143		0.123	0.234	0.222	0.487	0.308	0.301	0.232
宁波市	0.119		0.116	0.296	0.251	0.520	0.409	0.289	0.242
杭州市	0.117		0.115	0.281	0.289	0.498	0.451	0.276	0.267
嘉兴市	0.104		0.094	0.245	0.224	0.452	0.328	0.246	0.203
湖州市	0.089		0.058	0.199	0.177	0.343	0.284	0.196	0.161
绍兴市	0.139		0.083	0.284	0.227	0.459	0.315	0.276	0.196
舟山市	0.068		0.090	0.170	0.171	0.291	0.276	0.164	0.168
泰州市	0.091		0.089	0.221	0.204	0.373	0.294	0.213	0.185
上海市	0.176		0.405	0.466	0.657	0.859	0.766	0.460	0.591

检验方法	LLC检验	IPS检验	ADF-Fisher	PP-Fisher	单位根
ISI	-4.64429 (0.0000)	-3.02186 (0.0013)	52.8334 (0.0117)	21.5595 (0.9187)	否
LNISI	-23.3441 (0.0000)	-	314.166 (0.0000)	377.925 (0.0000)	否
UI	-0.39671 (0.3458)	4.76151 (1.0000)	10.4477 (0.9999)	7.67523 (1.0000)	是
LNUI	-8.36556 (0.0000)	-2.86498 (0.0021)	64.4977 (0.0006)	91.5584 (0.0000)	否