京津冀城市群城镇化与创新的耦合过程与机理

doi:10.11821/dlyj020181155

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市群是国家新型城镇化的主体形态,也是创新的孵化器;城市群区域的城镇化子系统与创新子系统之间理论上存在复杂交互关系。京津冀城市群是国家新型城镇化规划确定的国家级城市群,并将“全国创新驱动经济增长新引擎”作为其核心功能定位,因此有必要探索京津冀城市群的城镇化过程与创新发展之间的耦合关系,这对理解城镇化与创新之间的关系和京津冀城市群的发展问题都有裨益。通过梳理城镇化与创新两个子系统之间的内在理论关系,构建城镇化与创新的综合评价指标体系,借助耦合协调度模型和地理探测器因子探测方法,分析京津冀城市群城镇化与创新两子系统之间的耦合协调关系演变过程及作用机理。研究发现：① 京津冀城市群城镇化和创新的综合水平都呈现稳步增长的趋势,城镇化与创新的耦合协调关系总体向好的方向发展,但综合水平和耦合关系的空间差异都较大;② 创新滞后是京津冀城市群城镇化与创新耦合协调水平提升的关键阻力,近年京津冀城市群地区及多数城市表现为创新滞后的耦合协调类型;③ 京津冀城市群城镇化与创新的交互影响非常显著,特别是经济城镇化和社会城镇化对创新的影响、创新资源对城镇化的影响表现比较突出。

关键词: 城市群, 城镇化, 创新, 耦合协调关系, 地理探测器, 京津冀

Abstract:

Urban agglomeration is not only the main form of new urbanization, but also the incubator of innovation. Theoretically, there is a complex interaction between urbanization subsystem and innovation subsystem in urban agglomeration. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is a national-level urban agglomeration designated by the national new urbanization planning, and it takes "the new engine of national innovation-driven economic growth" as its core function positioning. Therefore, exploring the coupling relationship between urbanization process and innovation and development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is beneficial to understand the relationship between urbanization and innovation and the development of this urban agglomeration. The comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and innovation is constructed by combing the internal theoretical relationship between two subsystems of urbanization and innovation. With the help of coupling coordination degree model and geo-detector factor detection method, this paper analyzes the evolution process and mechanism of coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and innovation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The findings: (1) The comprehensive level of urbanization and innovation in the study area presents a trend of steady growth, and the coupling and coordination relationship between urbanization and innovation also develops in a good direction on the whole, but the comprehensive level and coupling relationship are different in space. Specifically, the gap between the high level of Beijing and Tianjin and the overall low level of 11 cities in Hebei is obvious. (2) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has been characterized by the coupling coordination type of innovation lag since 2007. Moreover, most of the cities in recent years show the type of coupling coordination of innovation lag, which can be clearly concluded that the main reason for the coupling coordination level of this urban agglomeration in the past period of time is that the innovation level is relatively inadequate to support the urbanization. (3) The interaction between urbanization and innovation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is very significant, especially the impact of economic urbanization and social urbanization on innovation, and the impact of innovation resources on urbanization is more prominent. It is also found that the role of innovation ability in promoting urbanization is relatively inadequate during the study period. In the future, the key direction of promoting the coordination level of urbanization and innovation coupling in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is to accelerate the improvement of urban agglomeration and the comprehensive level of innovation in each city.

Key words: urban agglomeration, urbanization, innovation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, coupling, geographical detector

马海涛, 卢硕, 张文忠. 京津冀城市群城镇化与创新的耦合过程与机理[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(2): 303-318.

MA Haitao, LU Shuo, ZHANG Wenzhong. Coupling process and mechanism of urbanization and innovation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(2): 303-318.

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系统层	目标层（权重）	指标层	熵值法	AHP法	综合权重
城镇化系统	人口城镇化（0.15）	城镇化水平（%）	0.07	0.07	0.07
		建成区人口密度（万人/km²）	0.08	0.04	0.06
		第二、第三产业从业人员占比（%）	0.01	0.03	0.02
	经济城镇化（0.32）	人均GDP（元）	0.06	0.04	0.05
		第二、第三产业增加值占GDP比例（%）	0.01	0.03	0.02
		人均全社会固定资产投资（元/人）	0.06	0.04	0.05
		人均社会消费总额（元/人）	0.05	0.07	0.06
		人均地方财政收入（元/人）	0.18	0.10	0.14
	空间城镇化（0.41）	城市建设用地占市区面积比例 (%)	0.08	0.06	0.07
		人均城市道路面积（m²/人）	0.08	0.06	0.07
		人均建设用地面积（m²/人）	0.08	0.12	0.10
		地均GDP（亿/ km²）	0.11	0.05	0.08
		地均固定资产投资额（亿/ km²）	0.08	0.10	0.09
	社会城镇化（0.12）	城镇居民人均可支配收入（元）	0.02	0.04	0.03
		每万人卫生机构床位数（张/万人）	0.01	0.05	0.03
		每万人互联网上网数（人）	0.02	0.10	0.06

系统层	目标层（权重）	指标层	熵值法	AHP法	综合权重
创新系统	创新资源（0.39）	每万人科研技术人员数（人）	0.18	0.22	0.20
		科技支出占公共财政支出比例（%）	0.09	0.05	0.07
		平均受教育年限（年）	0.04	0.06	0.05
		每万人在校大学生数（人）	0.11	0.03	0.07
	创新环境（0.48）	每百人公共图书馆藏书（册、件）	0.21	0.13	0.17
		人均实际利用外资（亿美元/人）	0.14	0.16	0.15
		经济外向度（%）	0.08	0.08	0.08
		每万人普通高等学校数量（所）	0.01	0.15	0.08
	创新能力（0.13）	每万人专利授权数（件）	0.12	0.08	0.10
	创新能力（0.13）	科技进步贡献率（%）	0.02	0.04	0.03

耦合协调度	类型	亚类
0.8<D ≤ 1	高级协调	g(I)-f(U)>0.1	高级协调-城镇化滞后
		f(U)-g(I)>0.1	高级协调-创新滞后
		0 ≤ \|f(U)-g(I)\| ≤ 0.1	高级协调
0.5<D ≤ 0.8	基本协调	g(I)-f(U)>0.1	基本协调-城镇化滞后
		f(U)-g(I)>0.1	基本协调-创新滞后
		0 ≤ \|f(U)-g(I)\| ≤ 0.1	基本协调
0.3<D ≤ 0.5	基本不协调	g(I)-f(U)>0.1	基本不协调-城镇化滞后
		f(U)-g(I)>0.1	基本不协调-创新滞后
		0 ≤ \|f(U)-g(I)\| ≤ 0.1	基本不协调
0<D ≤ 0.3	严重不协调	g(I)-f(U)>0.1	严重不协调-城镇化滞后
		f(U)-g(I)>0.1	严重不协调-创新滞后
		0 ≤ \|f(U)-g(I)\| ≤ 0.1	严重不协调

城镇化子系统	Q	城镇化指标	2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
城镇化子系统	（2001— 2015年）	城镇化指标	Q	P	Q	P	Q	P
人口城镇化	0.65	城镇化水平	0.85	0.000	0.81	0.000	0.83	0.000
		建成区人口密度	0.70	0.000	0.88	0.000	0.87	0.000
		第二、第三产业从业人员占比	0.40	0.000	0.15	0.011	0.38	0.000
经济城镇化	0.70	人均GDP	0.81	0.000	0.76	0.000	0.53	0.000
		第二、第三产业增加值占GDP比例	0.26	0.004	0.25	0.002	0.65	0.000
		人均全社会固定资产投资	0.91	0.000	0.65	0.000	0.30	0.011
		人均社会消费总额	0.96	0.000	0.96	0.000	0.89	0.000
		人均地方财政收入	0.81	0.000	0.86	0.000	0.87	0.000
空间城镇化	0.67	城市建设用地占市区面积比例	0.40	0.003	0.28	0.031	0.16	0.219
		人均城市道路面积	0.38	0.000	0.62	0.000	0.67	0.000
		人均建设用地面积	0.70	0.000	0.85	0.000	0.83	0.000
		地均GDP	0.83	0.000	0.88	0.000	0.81	0.000
		地均固定资产投资额	0.90	0.000	0.89	0.000	0.84	0.000
社会城镇化	0.69	城镇居民人均可支配收入	0.92	0.000	0.86	0.000	0.82	0.000
		每万人卫生机构床位数	0.77	0.000	0.64	0.000	0.29	0.046
		每万人互联网上网数	0.87	0.000	0.68	0.000	0.35	0.000

创新子系统	Q	创新指标	2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
创新子系统	（2001—2015年）	创新指标	Q	P	Q	P	Q	P
创新资源	0.67	每万人科研技术人员数	0.88	0.000	0.82	0.000	0.83	0.000
创新资源	0.67	科技支出占公共财政支出比例	0.04	0.382	0.65	0.000	0.80	0.000
创新环境	0.64	平均受教育年限	0.70	0.000	0.55	0.000	0.46	0.000
		每万人在校大学生数	0.64	0.000	0.52	0.000	0.43	0.000
		每百人公共图书馆藏书	0.83	0.000	0.90	0.000	0.80	0.000
		人均利用外资额	0.77	0.000	0.66	0.000	0.38	0.009
		经济外向度	0.88	0.000	0.90	0.000	0.80	0.000
		每万人高等学校数量	0.34	0.000	0.43	0.000	0.44	0.000
创新能力	0.51	每万人专利授权数	0.65	0.000	0.75	0.000	0.76	0.000
创新能力	0.51	科技进步贡献率	0.32	0.000	0.24	0.000	0.37	0.000