• 理论与方法 •

区域生态敏感性评估的理论框架与模型设计——以陕西省为例

1. 1. 西北农林科技大学资源经济与环境管理研究中心,杨凌 712100
2. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100
• 收稿日期:2018-12-28 修回日期:2019-05-01 出版日期:2019-08-20 发布日期:2019-08-20
• 作者简介:丁振民（1991- ）,男,安徽淮北人,博士研究生,主要从事资源经济与环境管理、林业经济政策与评估等方面研究。E-mail: huanglishanren@sina.com
• 基金资助:
林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201504424);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金项目(14JJD790031);国家自然科学基金项目(71473195)

Theoretical framework and model design for ecological sensitivity assessment: A case study of Shaanxi province

DING Zhenmin1,2,YAO Shunbo1,2

1. 1. Center for Resource Economics and Environmental Management, Northwest A& F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
2. College of Economic Management, Northwest A& F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
• Received:2018-12-28 Revised:2019-05-01 Online:2019-08-20 Published:2019-08-20

Abstract:

As human activities continue to occupy ecological space in breadth and depth, ecosystems are facing potential risks from structural damage to functional disorder on the whole. Moreover, the continuous decline of sustainable supply capacity of ecosystem services has a profound impact on human well-being and ecological security. Ecological sensitivity assessment (ESA) can provide decision-making basis for controlling ecological risk and ensuring regional ecological security. However, the current methods of ESA have suffered a lot of criticisms, especially in the framework of ES-LUCC. Hence, we develop the theoretical framework and design the model of ESA to overcome the defects of existing methods based on the definition of ecological sensitivity and economic theory. In this paper, the substitution matrix of odds ratio about land use transition is considered as the sensitive factors instead of that of land area. And then ecological sensitivity index is designed by the absolute value of actual value divided by predicted value of ESV. The results show that the method of ecological sensitivity assessment designed in this paper can not only observe the regional sensitivity factors, but also identify sensitive zones effectively and it still has strong applicability and robustness in small scale. In the list of the most sensitive factors, the negatively ecological factors dominate the ecosystem services such as grassland→cultivated land due to the internal economic driving and the lack of external ecological regulation from 1990 to 2000 in Shaanxi province. However, the Grain for Green Project contributes positively ecological factors to the most sensitive factor such as cultivated land→forestland and cultivated land→grassland in the northern part of the province. Due to the implementation of many water conservancy projects in southern Qinling-Daba Mountains and Guanzhong area, the sensitivity factor coefficient of grassland→water factor is relatively high. The overall sensitivity of the study area presents the basic pattern of orderly interval "Low-High" from south to north, and shows a state of spatial agglomeration and temporal stability. The high-sensitivity areas are mainly distributed along the Qinling Mountains and Ziwuling-Huangling Mountains, and the low-sensitivity areas are mainly in the Guanzhong Plain and the central zone of Yulin city. It is urgent to adjust unreasonable land use distribution and construct an ecological screen according to ecological sensitivity for realizing harmonious coexistence between human and nature.