地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 865-879.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020190242

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术关联性、复杂性与区域多样化——来自中国地级市的证据

马双1, 曾刚2, 张翼鸥2   

  1. 1.上海社会科学院信息研究所,上海 200235
    2.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-08 修回日期:2019-08-02 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-06-24
  • 作者简介:马双(1990- ),男,浙江江山人,博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向为区域发展与创新地理。E-mail: ms@sass.org.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41771143);上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题(2018EJL002);上海市软科学研究领域重点项目(19692107400)

Technological relatedness, complexity and regional diversity: Evidence from Chinese cities

MA Shuang1, ZENG Gang2, ZHANG Yiou2   

  1. 1.Institute of Information, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200235, China
    2.School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2019-04-08 Revised:2019-08-02 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-06-24

摘要:

忽视现实基础,盲目追求新兴产业的现象普遍存在于当前中国的一些城市。基于国家知识产权局的专利数据,描绘1987—2016年中国地级市技术关联性和复杂性的时空演化特征,探讨两者对区域技术进入和增长的影响。结果表明:① 新技术的本地关联度越高,就越有可能进入该地区;现有技术的本地关联度越低,就越容易退出该地区;② 中国城市的技术发展总体上呈现路径依赖特点。其中,东部地区的技术关联性和复杂性变化较大,中西部地区变化较小;③ 技术关联性对新技术的进入和增长起到显著的促进作用。在引入复杂性较高的技术时,只有存在较高关联性才会促进区域的技术进步。最后提出的区域多样化发展框架,可为决策者权衡选择技术发展道路提供参考。

关键词: 区域多样化, 技术关联性, 技术复杂性, 地级市, 中国

Abstract:

Ignoring the realistic basis and blindly pursuing new industries have become a common phenomenon in Chinese cities. Scholars have generally called for the implementation of regional capacity-based development policies, taking into account regional realities and industrial base, to avoid "one size fits all", repeated construction and vicious competition. Based on the patent data of the State Intellectual Property Office (SIPO), this paper describes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of technology relatedness and complexity of Chinese cities from 1987 to 2016, and estimates the impact of technology relatedness and complexity on regional technology introduction and technology growth. The results show that: (1) The dynamic of technology entry and exit in the eastern region is stronger than that of the central and western regions. The correlation analysis between relatedness and technology entry and exit shows that technology with high relatedness is more likely to enter the region. In contrast, technologies are more likely to exit if they do not have strong local technology linkages. (2) From the view of technological relatedness and complexity, technological evolution in eastern coastal areas is more dependent on the technological relatedness, and technological complexity has experienced tremendous growth, while technological relatedness and complexity in the central and western regions have changed little, and technological development in Chinese cities generally presents path-dependent characteristics. (3) Technological relatedness has been playing a significant role in promoting the entry and growth of new technologies. When technology with high complexity is introduced, if it has a high relatedness with the existing technological foundation of the region, it will play a significant role in promoting regional technological progress; on the contrary, even if the blind introduction of complex technology will not have a significant impact on regional technological progress. Based on the relatedness and complexity, this paper divides the technology development paths into four types: The policy of "bright road" means low risk and high benefit, when technologies are expected to exceed average returns under relatively low risk. In contrast, technological development with high risk and low benefit are unlikely to catch and raise value, we therefore refer to such a policy as "dead end". The "road exploration" policy means high risk and high benefit, which aims to develop new and original technology to realize path creation. "Slow Road" policy means driving safely forward in the existing low-level technology path. The framework of regional diversification development can provide a reference for decision makers to weigh and choose the path of technological development.

Key words: regional diversification, technological relatedness, complexity, cities, China