地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 956-969.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020190289
收稿日期:
2019-04-17
修回日期:
2019-07-02
出版日期:
2020-04-20
发布日期:
2020-06-24
通讯作者:
李秀彬
作者简介:
王亚辉(1989- ),男,安徽利辛人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为土地利用变化。E-mail: wangyahui1210@163.com
基金资助:
WANG Yahui1,2, LI Xiubin3(), XIN Liangjie3
Received:
2019-04-17
Revised:
2019-07-02
Online:
2020-04-20
Published:
2020-06-24
Contact:
LI Xiubin
摘要:
厘清耕地养老保障功能的时空演变,为新时代农村土地保障功能提供科学判断。把拥有承包权的耕地看作农户的一项资产,利用1986—2015年农村固定观察点中近61万份农户资料,分别从全国和省级尺度揭示耕地养老保障功能的演变规律,为完善农村养老保障体系提供参考。结果显示:按1986年不变价,全国层面上,人均耕地养老保障价值从550元/年降至150元/年,研究期内降幅达到72%。20世纪80年代,农民依靠承包耕地能够满足家庭老年居民的养老支出;1994年其价值已无法支撑老年居民消费,此后养老需求的缺口不断扩大。省际层面上,研究期内各省份耕地的养老保障价值均呈现下降趋势,且省际间存在明显差异;养老需求的缺口不断扩大,其中东南沿海、长江沿线地区尤为突出。耕地养老假说已失去其基本论据,依靠耕地无法满足农村老年居民的养老支出。农村养老保障必须建立在公共社会保障体系的基础上,而不能再指望农户家庭拥有的少量耕地,政府应加强农村养老服务的建设。
王亚辉, 李秀彬, 辛良杰. 近30年来耕地养老保障功能的时空演变及政策启示[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(4): 956-969.
WANG Yahui, LI Xiubin, XIN Liangjie. Spatiotemporal evolution of the old-age security function of cultivated land assets for Chinese farmers in the past 30 years and its policy implications[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(4): 956-969.
表1
1986—1997年度农户样本数量"
年份 | 农户数 | 年份 | 农户数 | 年份 | 农户数 | 年份 | 农户数 | 年份 | 农户数 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1986 | 27505 | 1993 | 18909 | 2000 | 20627 | 2006 | 20422 | 2012 | 20010 |
1987 | 26001 | 1995 | 20231 | 2001 | 20448 | 2007 | 21288 | 2013 | 20424 |
1988 | 25833 | 1996 | 20343 | 2002 | 20795 | 2008 | 20688 | 2014 | 20640 |
1989 | 23926 | 1997 | 20262 | 2003 | 20331 | 2009 | 21168 | 2015 | 22150 |
1990 | 24158 | 1998 | 20194 | 2004 | 19945 | 2010 | 20438 | ||
1991 | 25063 | 1999 | 20274 | 2005 | 21043 | 2011 | 19810 |
表3
1986—2015年人均耕地养老保障价值的时空演变"
省市区 | 1986 | 1990 | 1995 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
天津 | 270.69 | 241.14 | 44.92 | 142.71 | 97.76 | 166.01 |
河北 | 432.87 | 459.00 | 59.36 | 25.56 | 79.00 | 83.56 |
山西 | 288.08 | 735.54 | 157.54 | 16.12 | 80.86 | 86.85 |
内蒙古 | 516.61 | 629.61 | 144.89 | 70.52 | 175.00 | 190.41 |
辽宁 | 397.63 | 400.32 | 57.50 | 29.30 | 66.51 | 50.89 |
吉林 | 236.32 | 437.23 | 132.41 | 185.23 | 188.76 | 158.62 |
黑龙江 | 527.55 | 416.40 | 365.17 | 362.47 | 343.39 | 511.03 |
江苏 | 592.37 | 511.14 | 528.44 | 64.98 | 122.93 | 131.79 |
浙江 | 290.42 | 339.64 | 32.38 | 38.07 | 199.15 | 73.20 |
安徽 | 256.88 | 211.84 | 60.71 | 13.86 | 51.85 | 63.77 |
福建 | 383.37 | 271.84 | 61.80 | 23.90 | 94.78 | 53.11 |
江西 | 371.89 | 67.70 | 17.04 | 9.49 | 34.43 | 51.30 |
山东 | 463.59 | 534.29 | 327.03 | 105.16 | 225.57 | 360.17 |
河南 | 496.97 | 491.05 | 93.67 | 24.13 | 78.26 | 113.14 |
湖北 | 577.01 | 736.25 | 61.21 | 23.64 | 81.97 | 109.57 |
湖南 | 273.14 | 517.79 | 23.68 | 9.94 | 94.29 | 33.32 |
广东 | 381.85 | 330.73 | 54.19 | 10.50 | 53.56 | 79.57 |
广西 | 218.20 | 477.44 | 32.40 | 53.28 | 55.11 | 71.20 |
海南 | 70.01 | 531.41 | 32.97 | 137.92 | 56.10 | 53.54 |
四川 | 84.81 | 56.86 | 60.59 | 25.69 | 64.68 | 54.34 |
贵州 | 157.25 | 158.99 | 94.02 | 61.37 | 71.77 | 49.10 |
云南 | 681.77 | 147.68 | 23.57 | 6.72 | 112.40 | 166.30 |
陕西 | 420.42 | 604.57 | 24.95 | 81.98 | 177.17 | 128.89 |
甘肃 | 169.52 | 189.97 | 29.74 | 24.16 | 81.74 | 89.75 |
青海 | 464.12 | 425.21 | 105.29 | 33.67 | 62.87 | 44.48 |
宁夏 | 450.86 | 428.50 | 42.49 | 45.23 | 101.22 | 104.08 |
新疆 | 310.89 | 284.90 | 152.97 | 262.79 | 99.12 | 141.06 |
重庆 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.23 | 34.56 | 40.04 |
表4
1986—2015年人均养老需求缺口的时空演变"
省市区 | 1986 | 1990 | 1995 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
天津 | -59.17 | -79.14 | -338.77 | -511.62 | -515.47 | -1754.60 |
河北 | 214.84 | 265.15 | -201.49 | -412.92 | -338.43 | -990.88 |
山西 | 92.25 | 538.42 | -70.59 | -332.56 | -348.39 | -797.85 |
内蒙古 | 284.52 | 413.68 | -148.93 | -448.70 | -376.99 | -1168.44 |
辽宁 | 92.11 | 113.49 | -316.80 | -575.12 | -501.64 | -1087.50 |
吉林 | -44.71 | 167.79 | -257.43 | -487.44 | -436.04 | -780.93 |
黑龙江 | 8.96 | 195.59 | -279.70 | -286.45 | -146.29 | -443.85 |
江苏 | 255.45 | 173.21 | 56.59 | -591.78 | -768.94 | -1556.67 |
浙江 | -66.92 | -24.58 | -514.66 | -1015.80 | -981.27 | -1913.34 |
安徽 | 22.75 | -6.67 | -205.33 | -434.16 | -442.41 | -1088.66 |
福建 | 102.19 | -49.60 | -399.95 | -695.22 | -692.33 | -1631.14 |
江西 | 126.31 | -161.80 | -309.76 | -538.46 | -481.79 | -1103.49 |
山东 | 222.52 | 317.25 | 7.67 | -403.70 | -355.16 | -694.93 |
河南 | 304.79 | 324.91 | -126.91 | -364.60 | -330.82 | -825.38 |
湖北 | 304.05 | 479.66 | -267.08 | -536.63 | -474.83 | -1266.78 |
湖南 | -7.43 | 284.60 | -334.59 | -521.19 | -490.96 | -1304.12 |
广东 | 54.16 | -60.08 | -533.02 | -796.21 | -743.85 | -1484.79 |
广西 | 19.35 | 294.99 | -271.65 | -490.18 | -363.01 | -911.24 |
海南 | -194.25 | 286.51 | -261.38 | -443.07 | -407.64 | -1135.82 |
四川 | -152.72 | -170.45 | -240.67 | -517.57 | -486.94 | -1296.69 |
贵州 | -37.13 | -24.51 | -146.06 | -305.90 | -260.18 | -828.51 |
云南 | 475.86 | -46.93 | -215.42 | -342.16 | -267.52 | -653.84 |
陕西 | 250.15 | 434.38 | -188.83 | -334.00 | -224.75 | -766.32 |
甘肃 | 3.22 | 47.09 | -206.18 | -382.56 | -247.75 | -779.35 |
青海 | 225.92 | 221.11 | -145.22 | -318.35 | -440.56 | -1145.48 |
宁夏 | 236.89 | 224.68 | -230.06 | -435.93 | -393.09 | -966.99 |
新疆 | 87.15 | 70.74 | -186.46 | -182.39 | -300.52 | -822.04 |
重庆 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -490.90 | -478.31 | -1286.32 |
[1] | 陈锡文 . 全面深化“三农”问题改革的思考. 当代农村财经, 2014, ( 6):7-9. |
[ Chen Xiwen . Comprehensively deepen the reform of "three rural issues". Contemporary Rural Finance and Economics, 2014, ( 6):7-9.] | |
[2] | 李昌平 . 慎言农村土地私有化. 中国土地, 2004, ( 9):28-29. |
[ Li Changping . Be careful about privatizing rural land. China Land, 2004, ( 9):28-29.] | |
[3] | 温铁军 . 形成稳固的受惠群体: 关于农地制度创新的思考. 中国土地, 2001, ( 7):14-16. |
[ Wen Tiejun . To form a solid benefit group: Thinking about innovation of farmland system. China Land, 2001, ( 7):14-16.] | |
[4] | 赵渺希, 王慧芹, 刘明欣 . 集体土地养老支持的区位差异及政策启示: 基于广州和佛山地区的实证. 农业经济问题, 2018, ( 3):134-143. |
[ Zhao Miaoxi, Wang Huiqin, Liu Mingxin . The locational difference of collective land Chinese for rural social security: Based on an empirical study from Guangzhou and Foshan area. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2018, ( 3):134-143.] | |
[5] | 位涛, 闫琳琳 . 中国农村土地养老保障贡献研究. 人口与经济, 2014, ( 1):99-107. |
[ Wei Tao, Yan Linlin . An empirical research on the endowment contribution of the rural land security in China. Population & Economics, 2014, ( 1):99-107.] | |
[6] | Xu Yuebin . Family support for old people in rural China. Social Policy & Administration, 2001,35(3):307-320. |
[7] | 潘漪, 陆杰华 . 农村土地养老状况及影响因素分析. 中国人口科学, 2004, ( S1):143-149, 179. |
[ Pan Yi, Lu Jiehua . Analysis of endowment conditions of rural land and its influence factors. Population Science of China, 2004, ( S1):143-149, 179.] | |
[8] | Wang Qianxi, Zhang Xiaoling, Wu Yuzhe , et al. Collective land system in China: Congenital flaw or acquired irrational weakness. Habitat International, 2015,50:226-233. |
[9] | 韩芳, 朱启臻 . 农村养老与土地支持: 关于农村土地养老保障功能弱化的调查与思考. 探索, 2008, ( 5):128-132. |
[ Han Fang, Zhu Qizhen . Old-age security and land support in China: Investigation and thinking about rural land endowment security. Probe, 2008, ( 5):128-132.] | |
[10] | 程佳, 孔祥斌, 李靖 , 等. 农地社会保障功能替代程度与农地流转关系研究: 基于京冀平原区330个农户调查. 资源科学, 2014,36(1):17-25. |
[ Cheng Jia, Kong Xiangbin, Li Jing , et al. The relationship between substitution degree of farmland social insurance function and farmland transfer: Based on 330 peasant household surveys on the Jing-Ji plains. Resources Science, 2014,36(1):17-25.] | |
[11] | 唐焱, 张玲燕 . 农地保障功能被替代程度地区差异及对农户农地转出意愿的影响: 基于江苏省农户的调查. 农业现代化研究, 2015,36(6):1013-1019. |
[ Tang Yan, Zhang Lingyan . Research on the differences of the substitution degrees of farmland security function among regions and their influences on farmer's willingness to transfer out farmland based on rural houseold survey data in Jiangsu province. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2015,36(6):1013-1019.] | |
[12] | 苏康传, 杨庆媛, 张佰林 , 等. 山区农村土地利用转型与小农经济变迁耦合机理. 地理研究, 2019,38(2):399-413. |
[ Su Kangchuan, Yang Qingyuan, Zhang Bailin , et al. The coupling mechanism between rural land use transition and small-scale peasant economy change in mountainous areas. Geographical Research, 2019,38(2):399-413.] | |
[13] | 冯艳芬, 董玉祥, 王芳 . 大城市郊区农户弃耕行为及影响因素分析: 以广州番禺区农户调查为例. 自然资源学报, 2010,25(5):722-734. |
[ Feng Yanfen, Dong Yuxiang, Wang Fang . Household farming abandonment behavior and its influencing factors in Metropolitan suburbs: A case of households survey in Panyu, Guangzhou. Journal of Natural Resouces, 2010,25(5):722-734.] | |
[14] | 李升发, 李秀彬, 辛良杰 , 等. 中国山区耕地撂荒程度及空间分布: 基于全国山区抽样调查结果. 资源科学, 2017,39(10):1801-1811. |
[ Li Shengfa, Li Xinbin, Xin Liangjie , et al. Extent and distribution of cropland abandonment in Chinese mountainous areas. Resources Sciences, 2017,39(10):1801-1811.] | |
[15] | Wang Yahui, Li Xiubin, Xin Liangjie , et al. Spatiotemporal changes in Chinese land circulation between 2003 and 2013. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018,28(6):707-724. |
[16] | 张佰林, 杨庆媛, 严燕 , 等. 快速城镇化进程中不同类型农户弃耕特点及原因: 基于重庆市十区县540户农户调查. 资源科学, 2011,33(11):2047-2054. |
[ Zhang Bailin, Yang Qingyuan, Yan Yan , et al. Characteristics and reasons of different households' farming abandonment behavior in the process of rapid urbanization: Based on a survey from 540 households in 10 Counties of Chongqing Municipality. Resources Sciences, 2011,33(11):2047-2054.] | |
[17] | Li Shengfa, Li Xiubin, Sun Laixiang , et al. An estimation of the extent of cropland abandonment in mountainous regions of China. Land Degradation & Development, 2018,29(5):1327-1342. |
[18] | 李升发, 李秀彬 . 耕地撂荒研究进展与展望. 地理学报, 2016,71(3):370-389. |
[ Li Shengfa, Li Xinbin . Progress and prospect on farmland abandonment. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(3):370-389.] | |
[19] | Shi Tiechou, Li Xiubin, Xin Liangjie , et al. The spatial distribution of farmland abandonment and its influential factors at the township level: A case study in the mountainous area of China. Land Use Policy, 2018,70:510-520. |
[20] | 乐章 . 风险与保障: 基于农村养老问题的一个实证分析. 农业经济问题, 2005,9:68-73. |
[ Yue Zhang . Risk and security: An empirical analysis based on the rural pension problem. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2005,9:68-73.] | |
[21] | 何艳冰, 黄晓军, 杨新军 . 快速城市化背景下城市边缘区失地农民适应性研究: 以西安市为例. 地理研究, 2017,36(2):226-240. |
[ He Yanbing, Huang Xiaojun, Yang Xinjun . Adaptation of land-lost farmers to rapid urbanization in urban fringe: A case study of Xi'an. Geographical Research, 2017,36(2):226-240.] | |
[22] | 全世文, 胡历芳, 曾寅初 , 等. 论中国农村土地的过度资本化. 中国农村经济, 2018,7:2-18. |
[ Quan Shiwen, Hu Lifang, Zeng Yinchu , et al. The overcapitalization of land resources in rural China. Chinese Rural Economy, 2018,7:2-18.] | |
[23] | 中华人民共和国卫生部. 中国卫生统计年鉴. 北京: 中国协和医科大学出版社, 1987-2016. |
[ The Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. China Health Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: Beijing Union Medical University Press, 1987-2016.] | |
[24] | 中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1987-2016. |
[ The National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1987-2016.] | |
[25] | 国家统计局农村社会经济调查司. 中国农村统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1987-2016. |
[ The National Bureau of Statistics of Rural Social Economic Investigation Department. China Rural Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1987-2016.] | |
[26] | 程令国, 张晔, 刘志彪 . 农地确权促进了中国农村土地的流转吗. 管理世界, 2016,1:88-98. |
[ Cheng Lingguo, Zhang Ye, Liu Zhibiao . Does land titling promote rural circulation in China. Management World, 2016,1:88-98.] | |
[27] | 王亚运, 蔡银莺, 李海燕 . 空间异质性下农地流转状况及影响因素. 中国土地科学, 2015,29(6):18-25. |
[ Wang Yayun, Cai Yinying, Li Haiyan . The status of farmland transfer in the context of spatial heterogeneity and its influencing factors: Case studies in Wuhan, Jingmen and Huanggang. China Land Sciences, 2015,29(6):18-25.] | |
[28] | 黄延信, 张海阳, 李伟毅 , 等. 农村土地流转状况调查与思考. 农业经济问题, 2011, ( 5):4-10. |
[ Huang Yanxin, Zhang Haiyang, Li Weiyi , et al. Investigation and reflection on rural land transfer. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011, ( 5):4-10.] | |
[29] | 吴兆娟, 魏朝富, 丁声源 . 丘陵山区地块尺度耕地社会保障功能价值研究. 资源科学, 2013,35(4):773-781. |
[ Wu Zhaojuan, Wei Chaofu, Ding Shengyuan . Research on the social security function of cultivated land in a hilly-mountainous region. Resources Science, 2013,35(4):773-781.] | |
[30] | 蔡进, 廖和平, 邱道持 , 等. 重庆市农村耕地资源贫困测度及空间格局研究. 农业工程学报, 2017,33(18):251-259. |
[ Cai Jin, Liao Heping, Qiu Daochi , et al. Study on poverty measure of farmland resources and spatial pattern in Chongqing. Transactions of the CSAE, 2017,33(18):251-259.] | |
[31] | 赵东霞, 韩增林, 任启龙 , 等. 市域人口老龄化空间特征与养老资源匹配关系研究: 以东北三省为例. 资源科学, 2018,40(9):1773-1786. |
[ Zhao Dongxia, Han Zhenglin, Ren Qilong , et al. Study on the relationship between the spatial feature of urban population aging and the pension resources matching: Take the three provinces of the Northeast China as an example. Resources Science, 2018,40(9):1773-1786.] | |
[32] | 甘犁, 尹志超, 谭继军 . 中国家庭金融调查报告(2014). 成都: 西南财经大学出版社, 2015: 35-36. |
[ Gan Li, Yin Zhichao, Tan Jijun. Chinese Family Financial Report( 2014). Chengdu: Southwest University of Finance and Economics Press, 2015: 35-36.] | |
[33] | 罗士喜 . 基于土地资产化的农村社会保障构建. 郑州大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2009,42(2):71-73. |
[ Luo Shixi . Construction of rural social security based on land assets. Journal of Zhengzhou University: Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition, 2009,42(2):71-73.] | |
[34] | Wang Yahui, Xin Liangjie, Zhang Haozhe , et al. An estimation of the extent of rent-free farmland transfer and its driving forces in rural China: A multilevel logit model analysis. Sustainability, 2019,11:1-18. |
[35] | 王亚辉, 李秀彬, 辛良杰 . 山区土地流转过程中的零租金现象及其解释: 基于交易费用的视角. 资源科学, 2019,41(7):1339-1349. |
[ Wang Yahui, Li Xiubin, Xin Liangjie . Rent-free land transfer in mountainous areas and its explanation. Resources Sciences, 2019,41(7):1339-1349.] |
[1] | 许咏梅, 周黎明, 张兆彤. 新疆昌吉州耕地开垦轨迹对土壤肥力变化的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(3): 657-672. |
[2] | 邹利林, 李裕瑞, 刘彦随, 王建英. 基于要素视角的耕地“三生”功能理论建构与实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(3): 839-855. |
[3] | 杨帆, 何凡能, 李美娇. 中国西部地区历史草地面积重建的方法——以甘宁青新区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(7): 1667-1679. |
[4] | 刘晓琼, 孙曦亮, 刘彦随, 张健, 赵新正, 芮旸. 基于REOF-EEMD的西南地区气候变化区域分异特征[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(5): 1215-1232. |
[5] | 田俊峰, 王彬燕, 程利莎, 王士君. 政策主导下的区域土地利用转型过程与机制——以中国东北地区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(4): 805-821. |
[6] | 王泽东, 张小林, 孙东琪, 孙海燕. 渤海海峡跨海通道建设前后区际城市群物流网络结构的时空演变[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(3): 585-600. |
[7] | 刘亚香, 李阳兵. 乡村转型背景下贵州坝子土地利用生产功能的空间演变[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(2): 430-446. |
[8] | 李美娇, 何凡能, 杨帆, 赵亮. 明代省域耕地数量重建及时空特征分析[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(2): 447-460. |
[9] | 尹上岗, 杨山, 陈艳如, 白彩全. 长三角房价收入比时空演变格局及收敛性研究[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(11): 2521-2536. |
[10] | 唐常春, 李亚平. 多中心城市群土地利用/覆被变化地学信息图谱研究——以长株潭城市群为例[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(11): 2626-2641. |
[11] | 丁振民,姚顺波. 区域生态敏感性评估的理论框架与模型设计——以陕西省为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(8): 2085-2098. |
[12] | 胡守庚, 童陆亿, 龙花楼. 论土地利用转型潜力及其评价的理论框架[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(6): 1367-1377. |
[13] | 覃丽君, 金晓斌, 蒋宇超, 薛樵风, 成一农, 龙瀛, 杨绪红, 周寅康. 近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(5): 1045-1062. |
[14] | 李维维, 陈田, 马晓龙. 城市旅游综合体土地利用空间格局演变及驱动机制——以西安曲江为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(5): 1103-1118. |
[15] | 朱琳, 黎磊, 刘素, 李裕瑞. 大城市郊区村域土地利用功能演变及其对乡村振兴的启示——以成都市江家堰村为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(3): 535-549. |
|