地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 990-1001.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020190306

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下青冈分布变化及其对中国亚热带北界的指示意义

张立娟, 李艳红, 任涵, 王丽园, 朱文博, 朱连奇()   

  1. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-24 修回日期:2020-02-14 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-06-24
  • 通讯作者: 朱连奇
  • 作者简介:张立娟(1985- ),女,山东肥城人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为山地地理环境与资源开发利用研究。E-mail: zhanglijuan728@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41671090);国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY100902)

Prediction of the suitable distribution of Cyclobalanopsis glauca and its implications for the northern boundary of subtropical zone of China

ZHANG Lijuan, LI Yanhong, REN Han, WANG Liyuan, ZHU Wenbo, ZHU Lianqi()   

  1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
  • Received:2019-04-24 Revised:2020-02-14 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-06-24
  • Contact: ZHU Lianqi

摘要:

气候是影响植被类型和分布的关键因素,植被类型和分布格局也能反映气候的地域差异。随着气候变暖,全球气温和降水格局都将发生变化,植被类型和分布格局也将随之改变。而植物对气候变化的响应存在一定的滞后性,因此仅用气候指标研究亚热带北界及其移动具有一定的局限性。以青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted)为研究对象,应用最大熵模型(Maxent),研究了其对气候变化的响应并探讨了气候变化情景下青冈分布格局变化对中国亚热带北界移动的指示意义。结果表明:影响青冈分布的主导环境因子为年降水量、最冷季降水量、气温年变化范围和最冷月最低气温;随着气候变暖,青冈分布北界将向北移动,其分布质心亦向西北移动,预示着在气候变暖的背景下,到21世纪中叶中国亚热带北界将向北移动约1个纬度。

关键词: 青冈, 气候变化, Maxent, 适生区

Abstract:

Climate plays a major role in biodiversity and vegetation types, and vegetation types and distribution reflect the regional climate. A rise in global mean temperature will lead to changes of global precipitation pattern, vegetation types and their distribution. However vegetation can react to climate change by genetic adaption and ecological buffering; hence, there is a temporal hysteresis in the response of vegetation to climate change. It has some limitations to study the northern boundary of subtropical zone and its movement only by climate indicators. Therefore, we introduced a species distribution model to conduct species potential distribution and reflect the movement of northern boundary of subtropical zone. In this study, we chose Cyclobalanopsis glauca, a typical subtropical evergreen broadleaved tree, to investigate the distribution pattern of Cyclobalanopsis glauca under climate warming and its implication for the northern boundary movement of subtropical zone. Based on 10 high resolution environmental data under current and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we modeled the present and future suitable habitats for Cyclobalanopsis glauca by the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and identified the distribution shifts by centroid movement under two climate change scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.932, indicating that the prediction of the potential distribution for Cyclobalanopsis glauca was reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Cyclobalanopsis glauca were annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, temperature annual range and minimum temperature of coldest month, with the cumulative contribution of 94.2%. Currently, the potential suitable habitats areas for Cyclobalanopsis glauca encompassed 17.44×10 5 km 2, mainly located between 18°N-33°N and 91°N-121°E, the high potential habitats account for 25%, and the centroid of the current habitats was located in Yanling in Hunan province (26°31′12″N, 113°41′24″E). Under the two future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area of Cyclobalanopsis glauca would increase in the 2050s, the area of new habitats under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 is 3.2×10 5 km 2; the high potential habitats account for 32% under RCP2.6, however it only accounts for 26% under RCP8.5. Furthermore, the northern boundary of the total suitable area would shift to higher latitudes, and the centroid of the total suitable area would shift to the northwest in the future, indicating that the northern boundary of subtropical zone of China would move poleward of 1° under climate change in the 2050s.

Key words: Cyclobalanopsis glauca, climate change, Maxent, suitable distribution, northern boundary of subtropical zone