入园率视角下长三角地区化工产业时空格局演化及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190421

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文以全国化工产业密集区——长三角地区为例,基于规模以上中国工业企业详细数据,从化工企业入园率的视角出发,综合运用均值中心、标准差椭圆、核密度分析及空间自相关等分析方法,分析并揭示了1998—2013年长三角地区化工产业时空格局演化规律及影响因素。研究结果表明：1998—2013年长三角地区化工企业总体上呈现不断增长趋势,入园率由6.19%提升到36.98%;化工企业“西北-东南”方向分布明显,且近似呈“先东南,后西北”的路径迁移规律,较之全部企业,入园企业具有更高的离散度、更大的迁移幅度,入园企业与全部企业逐步由空间失配演变为空间匹配;中心集聚与外围扩散态势并存,发育并逐渐形成了环太湖集聚区、沿杭州湾集聚区、沿长江密集带及沿海密集带四大化工产业集聚片区,化工产业的区域空间结构趋于复杂化、有序化与稳定化;地级尺度上化工企业入园率不断提升,2003年与2013年呈显著的空间正相关,热点区逐渐由浙江东南转移到苏皖北部,冷点区从安徽北部迁移到浙江西北,基本完成了空间格局上的对称反转变换,但化工企业入园率与空间密度分布一直处于错配失衡状态。通过结合化工产业特性与长三角区域特征,定性探讨了长三角地区化工产业时空格局演化的影响因素,特别是阐述了化工产业“园区化”进程的作用机制。

关键词: 化工产业, 入园率, 时空格局, 影响因素, 长三角地区

Abstract:

Chemical industry plays an important role in the development of national economy and society, and imposes direct impacts on all other social and economic sectors. Meanwhile, due to chemical industry characteristics of both severe environmental pollution and high accident frequency, it also threatens the regional ecological environment, human health and life safety. From the perspective of industrial park admission rate of chemical enterprises, and based on the chemical enterprises detailed data, we systematically analyzed and revealed the spatial-temporal patterns and its influencing factors of chemical industry in the Yangtze River Delta from 1998 to 2013 with the integration of mean center, standard deviation ellipse, kernel density and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that chemical enterprises exhibited a generally growing trend in the study area from 1998 to 2013 with a continuing rising admission rate from 6.19% to 36.98%. Chemical enterprises distributed in the ‘northwest-southeast’ direction, and approximately showed the ‘first southeast, then northwest’ migration path. Compared to other chemical enterprises, chemical enterprises in industrial park had a higher dispersion trend and a larger migration range. And chemical enterprises in industrial park gradually evolved from spatial mismatch to spatial match with all chemical enterprises. Central agglomeration coexisted with the peripheral diffusion, and four major chemical agglomeration areas formed in the Yangtze River Delta, namely Taihu Lake agglomeration area, Hangzhou Bay agglomeration area, Yangtze River concentrated area, and coastal concentrated area. The regional spatial structure of chemical industry tended to be complicated, orderly and stable. Industrial park admission rate of chemical enterprises presented significantly positive spatial autocorrelation in 2003 and 2013, with a rising trend at municipal level. Hot spots gradually transferred from southeast Zhejiang to northwest Jiangsu, Anhui, while cold spots moved from north Anhui to southwest Zhejiang, which led to the symmetry reverse transformation of spatial patterns of chemical enterprises. But industrial park admission rate and spatial density distribution of chemical enterprises had always been in the imbalance and mismatch state. Combined with chemical industry characteristics and the Yangtze River Delta regional features, we qualitatively discussed the influencing factors of the spatial-temporal patterns of chemical industry in the Yangtze River Delta, especially to elucidate the mechanism of park industrializa-tion process of chemical industry.

Key words: chemical industry, industrial park admission rate of chemical enterprises, spatial-temporal pattern, influencing factors, the Yangtze River Delta

纪学朋, 宋娅娅, 孙延伟, 王丹阳, 孟浩, 李升峰, 黄贤金. 入园率视角下长三角地区化工产业时空格局演化及影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(5): 1116-1127.

JI Xuepeng, SONG Yaya, SUN Yanwei, WANG Danyang, MENG Hao, LI Shengfeng, HUANG Xianjin. Spatial-temporal variation of chemical industry and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of industrial park admission rate of chemical enterprises[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(5): 1116-1127.

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	年份	均值中心 X	均值中心 Y	短半轴（km）	长半轴（km）	扁率	旋转角（度）	面积（km²）
全部化工企业	1998	136.25	225.48	136.25	225.48	0.40	140.66	96507.10
	2003	134.13	217.41	134.13	217.41	0.38	147.24	91608.34
	2008	134.35	221.61	134.35	221.61	0.39	148.80	93531.93
	2013	147.04	243.72	147.04	243.72	0.40	144.75	112579.44
入园化工企业	1998	125.07	256.56	125.07	256.56	0.51	159.44	100802.07
	2003	134.65	251.84	134.65	251.84	0.47	161.22	106520.83
	2008	139.28	255.66	139.28	255.66	0.46	153.68	111856.70
	2013	156.76	261.64	156.76	261.64	0.40	149.08	128845.75

	指标	1998年	2003年	2008年	2013年
莫兰I指数	Moran's I	0.0741	0.4373	0.0421	0.3241
	E(I)	-0.0256	-0.0256	-0.0256	-0.0256
	Z-Score	1.1014	4.8500	0.7122	3.6077
	P-value	0.132	0.001	0.229	0.001