中国旅游业发展对区域经济效率的影响——基于中国283个地级市的实证证据

doi:10.11821/dlyj020190471

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2002—2016年中国283个地级市的面板数据集,利用DEA模型测度各地级市的综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率。在此基础上,建立空间计量模型,分析旅游业发展对经济综合效率的影响。结果表明：① 中国城市经济综合效率整体水平在研究期内呈现出先升后降的变化趋势,投入产出效率水平较低,仅少数城市实现效率最优。东部和中部地区的综合效率水平相当,西部偏低,不具备明显的梯度特征。② 旅游收入每提高1%,城市综合效率正向变动0.064%,其对城市综合效率的作用强度显著高于人力资本水平、二产产值比重、第二第三产业从业人员数以及政府财政支出占比。③ 旅游业对中国三大区域城市整体综合效率的提高存在区域差异,西部地区的旅游收入水平对经济综合效率的作用强度高于东部和中部地区。

关键词: 旅游发展, 经济效率, DEA, 空间计量模型, 中国

Abstract:

The development of tourism has gradually strengthened its correlation and driving effect on the national economy. Tourism is an important part of the service industry, and the increase of its share means the growth of non-essential consumption, which provides a strong market driver for China's overall economic development. The government emphasizes the driving effect of tourism on economic development. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) for tourism development, tourism should be developed as an important force in economic transformation. Based on the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2016, this study adopts DEA model to measure the comprehensive efficiency, technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of each prefecture-level city. It then establishes spatial-econometric models to investigate the impacts of tourism development on comprehensive efficiency of economy. The main findings are as follows: (1) Overall, the comprehensive efficiency of the sample cities shows a tendency of rising first and then falling, and input-output efficiency is at a low level. Only a few cities achieve the optimal efficiency. The comprehensive efficiency is roughly equivalent in the eastern and central regions, while that of the western region is relatively low. (2) Tourism development can significantly improve the comprehensive efficiency of the cities, which is reflected in the positive change of 0.064% for every 1% increase in tourism revenue. And its effect on the overall efficiency of the economy is significantly higher than that of human capital, proportion of output value of secondary production, number of employees in secondary and tertiary industries, and proportion of government fiscal expenditure. (3) There are regional differences of tourism in improving comprehensive efficiency in China. The effect of tourism development on comprehensive efficiency in the western region is larger than that in the eastern and central regions. This can be attributed to the different development stages of different regions in China. The western region is at the stage of increasing returns to scale, while northeast and central regions, especially their large cities, have entered the mature stage of development, featuring constant marginal returns or decreasing marginal returns.

Key words: tourism development, economic efficiency, DEA, spatial-econometric model, China

于婷婷, 左冰, 宋玉祥, 吴媛媛. 中国旅游业发展对区域经济效率的影响——基于中国283个地级市的实证证据[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(6): 1357-1369.

YU Tingting, ZUO Bing, SONG Yuxiang, WU Yuanyuan. The influence of tourism development on regional economic efficiency: Evidence from 283 prefecture-level cities in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2020, 39(6): 1357-1369.

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效率	地区	年份								均值
效率	地区	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	均值
综合效率	东部	0.533	0.647	0.563	0.553	0.570	0.568	0.555	0.574	0.570
	中部	0.499	0.605	0.580	0.578	0.591	0.614	0.557	0.558	0.573
	西部	0.440	0.461	0.470	0.497	0.510	0.502	0.436	0.475	0.474
	均值	0.490	0.571	0.538	0.543	0.557	0.561	0.516	0.536	-
纯技术效率	东部	0.678	0.705	0.635	0.674	0.664	0.674	0.653	0.676	0.670
	中部	0.568	0.658	0.628	0.636	0.642	0.675	0.618	0.618	0.630
	西部	0.524	0.511	0.526	0.564	0.587	0.580	0.519	0.573	0.548
	均值	0.590	0.624	0.596	0.625	0.631	0.643	0.597	0.622	-
规模效率	东部	0.776	0.898	0.872	0.817	0.851	0.84	0.848	0.847	0.844
	中部	0.844	0.895	0.903	0.886	0.898	0.889	0.887	0.890	0.887
	西部	0.827	0.891	0.879	0.873	0.867	0.863	0.852	0.843	0.862
	均值	0.816	0.894	0.885	0.859	0.872	0.864	0.862	0.859	-

年份	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Moran's I	0.1945	0.2370	0.2386	0.1904	0.1679	0.1862	0.1225	0.1170
P-value	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Moran's I	0.1229	0.1979	0.1370	0.2951	0.2169	0.3306	0.2904
P-value	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

解释变量	OLS	SLM	SEM
lnTOUR	0.027^***(10.470)	0.045^*** (9.007)	0.064^*** (12.062)
lnEDU	0.006^*** (4.407)	0.003 (1.476)	0.006^*** (3.072)
lnIND	0.007^*** (19.335)	0.003^*** (7.349)	0.004^*** (9.128)
lnEMP	0.026^*** (8.693)	0.014^*** (5.773)	0.034^*** (6.696)
lnEXP	0.002^* (1.717)	0.002^*** (3.276)	0.008^* (1.717)
Wdep.var.*	-	0.804^*** (27.415)	-
spat.aut.	-	-	0.925^*** (68.638)
LogL	1259.400	3563.811	3627.183
R²	0.334	0.711	0.564
LMLAG	-	653.618^***	-
R-LMLAG	-	27.761^***	-
LMERR	-	-	1169.421^***
R-LMERR	-	-	543.564^***

变量	东部地区			中部地区			西部地区
变量	OLS	SLM	SEM	OLS	SLM	SEM	OLS	SLM	SEM
lnTOUR	0.0175^*** (3.660)	0.036^*** (4.257)	0.047^*** (5.041)	0.041^*** (10.513)	0.036^*** (4.383)	0.044^*** (5.100)	0.058^*** (13.150)	0.062^*** (6.743)	0.086^*** (9.129)
lnEDU	0.015^*** (5.207)	0.001 (0.278)	0.001 (0.231)	0.010^*** (3.851)	0.005 (1.522)	0.006^* (1.670)	0.013^*** (5.547)	0.004 (1.378)	0.005 (1.479)
lnIND	0.010^*** (15.564)	0.003^*** (3.702)	0.004^*** (4.140)	0.006^*** (9.286)	0.003^*** (3.624)	0.003^*** (3.655)	0.005^*** (8.858)	0.004^*** (5.287)	0.005^*** (6.004)
lnEMP	0.024^*** (4.319)	0.015^*** (3.162)	0.007 (0.716)	0.040^*** (8.120)	0.017^*** (3.997)	0.016^* (1.914)	0.033^*** (6.836)	0.016^*** (3.832)	0.046^*** (5.374)
lnEXP	0.006^*** (4.290)	0.002^** (2.213)	0.008^** （2.256）	0.002^*** (1.331)	0.001 (0.562)	0.006 (1.445)	0.001 (0.855)	0.003^*** (2.596)	0.017^** (2.387)
Wdep.var.*	-	0.761^*** (19.543)	-	-	0.682^*** (13.722)	-	-	0.695^*** (14.555)	-
spat.aut.	-	-	0.819^*** (26.017)	-	-	0.844^*** (30.735)	-	-	0.880^*** (41.171)
LogL	600.331	1442.208	1450.463	567.352	1358.182	1360.646	372.468	879.851	909.622
R²	0.195	0.743	0.679	0.191	0.723	0.627	0.227	0.668	0.439
LMLAG	-	98.863^***	-	-	72.991^***	-	-	75.413^***	-
R-LMLAG	-	0.487	-	-	21.965^***	-	-	10.611^***	-
LMERR	-	-	120.070^***	-	-	52.466^***	-	-	118.159^***
R-LMERR	-	-	21.694^***	-	-	1.439	-	-	53.358^***