地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 356-372.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200010

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

商品贸易网络视角下地缘经济系统的属性与功能演进

杨文龙1(), 游小珺2(), 杜德斌3   

  1. 1.上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海 200020
    2.福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
    3.华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-06 接受日期:2020-09-02 出版日期:2021-02-10 发布日期:2021-04-10
  • 通讯作者: 游小珺
  • 作者简介:杨文龙(1991-),男,福建平潭人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事世界地理和地缘战略研究。 E-mail: yangwenlong_pt@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42001135);华东师范大学科技创新与发展战略研究中心开放课题;国家社科基金青年项目(16CJY039)

The evolutionary properties and functions of the geo-economic system from the perspective of global commodity trade network

YANG Wenlong1(), YOU Xiaojun2(), DU Debin3   

  1. 1. Institute of World Economy, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200020, China
    2. School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    3. Center for Geopolitical and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2020-01-06 Accepted:2020-09-02 Online:2021-02-10 Published:2021-04-10
  • Contact: YOU Xiaojun

摘要:

金融危机以来,世界经济发生了深刻变革。“区域化、集团化、碎片化”逐渐取代经济全球化成为国际社会最为活跃的内容,以“地缘”为基础的经济板块日益涌现。本文结合系统动力学理论构建地缘经济系统的分析框架,从商品贸易网络的研究视角,对1996—2016年地缘经济系统的属性特征、功能等级的演进过程深入分析,得出如下结果。① 在属性特征演进层面,地缘经济系统具备小世界性,其变化趋势与世界经济局势的阶段性发展共轭;商品贸易网络度分布的无标度性逐渐消失,地缘经济关系呈均衡化,而权重度的无标度性显著,中间位序的国家数量增多使权重度分形结构趋于优化;商品贸易网络属于异配型网络,地缘经济系统遵循择优选择机制但趋向弱化。② 在功能等级演进层面,地缘经济系统具有较强的关系依赖性,第三国效应凸显;商品贸易网络的权重度中心性与特征向量中心性的关联度最高且空间同配,逐步形成以中美为核心的东西并立格局,介数中心性和接近中心性呈现空间均质化发展态势;功能类型在数量特征上呈“金字塔”型结构,在空间分布上形成三个“核心-边缘”集聚的“圈层结构”,核心型地缘经济区之间的竞争性强化,中转型地缘经济区的联系网络呈复杂化,一般型地缘经济区的部分国家出现等级跃升,孤立型地缘经济区保持稳定。③ 自然地理空间分异、国家社会经济发展、不同功能区的交互耦合是地缘经济功能区空间演进的重要因素。

关键词: 地缘经济, 复杂系统, 属性特征, 功能等级, 演进过程

Abstract:

Since the financial crisis, the world economy has emerged as geo-economy and showed network features. To expand and deepen the research paradigm of geo-economic system, a systematic and dynamic perspective is needed to explore its intrinsic properties and the operating law. Considering the importance of the commodity trade in measuring geo-economic system, this perspective provides an effective path to study the geo-economic system. In this paper, we constructed an analytical framework of geo-economic system on the basis of System Dynamics to examine the evolutionary properties, functional levels and types of the global geo-economic system from 1996 to 2016 from the perspective of global commodity trade network. The result shows that, firstly, in terms of the attribute features, geo-economic system has the small world property. Its evolution is conjugated with the development of the world economy. The scale-free property of degree gradually disappears, and the construction of geo-economic relations is balanced. The scale-free property of weighted degree is significant, and the increase in the number of intermediate-order countries optimizes the weight-degree fractal structure. Geo-economic system belongs to the mismatch network. Geo-economic links follow the selection mechanism and tends to weaken. Secondly, in terms of the functional level, geo-economic system presents a strong relationship-dependent effect and the third-party effect. The association between the weighted degree centrality and eigenvector centrality is the highest and displays a spatial match, both of which gradually form a spatial pattern of East-West parallelism with China and the US acting as two cores. The betweenness centrality and the closeness centrality show spatial homogenization. The quantity distribution of its function type presents a “pyramid” structure, indicating the power of countries in the world economy, while spatially three core-periphery clusters show a “circle” structure. The competitiveness of the central geo-economic zone increased. The network structure of the transformation geo-economic zone is diverse and complicated. The function level of some countries in the general geo-economic zone leaped, while the isolated geo-economic zone remains stable. Natural geospatial separation, national socio-economic development, the interaction and coupling among functional zones are important factors driving the spatial evolution of geo-economic functional zones.

Key words: geo-economy, complex system, attribute features, functional level, evolutionary process