商品贸易网络视角下地缘经济系统的属性与功能演进

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

金融危机以来,世界经济发生了深刻变革。“区域化、集团化、碎片化”逐渐取代经济全球化成为国际社会最为活跃的内容,以“地缘”为基础的经济板块日益涌现。本文结合系统动力学理论构建地缘经济系统的分析框架,从商品贸易网络的研究视角,对1996—2016年地缘经济系统的属性特征、功能等级的演进过程深入分析,得出如下结果。① 在属性特征演进层面,地缘经济系统具备小世界性,其变化趋势与世界经济局势的阶段性发展共轭;商品贸易网络度分布的无标度性逐渐消失,地缘经济关系呈均衡化,而权重度的无标度性显著,中间位序的国家数量增多使权重度分形结构趋于优化;商品贸易网络属于异配型网络,地缘经济系统遵循择优选择机制但趋向弱化。② 在功能等级演进层面,地缘经济系统具有较强的关系依赖性,第三国效应凸显;商品贸易网络的权重度中心性与特征向量中心性的关联度最高且空间同配,逐步形成以中美为核心的东西并立格局,介数中心性和接近中心性呈现空间均质化发展态势;功能类型在数量特征上呈“金字塔”型结构,在空间分布上形成三个“核心-边缘”集聚的“圈层结构”,核心型地缘经济区之间的竞争性强化,中转型地缘经济区的联系网络呈复杂化,一般型地缘经济区的部分国家出现等级跃升,孤立型地缘经济区保持稳定。③ 自然地理空间分异、国家社会经济发展、不同功能区的交互耦合是地缘经济功能区空间演进的重要因素。

关键词: 地缘经济, 复杂系统, 属性特征, 功能等级, 演进过程

Abstract:

Since the financial crisis, the world economy has emerged as geo-economy and showed network features. To expand and deepen the research paradigm of geo-economic system, a systematic and dynamic perspective is needed to explore its intrinsic properties and the operating law. Considering the importance of the commodity trade in measuring geo-economic system, this perspective provides an effective path to study the geo-economic system. In this paper, we constructed an analytical framework of geo-economic system on the basis of System Dynamics to examine the evolutionary properties, functional levels and types of the global geo-economic system from 1996 to 2016 from the perspective of global commodity trade network. The result shows that, firstly, in terms of the attribute features, geo-economic system has the small world property. Its evolution is conjugated with the development of the world economy. The scale-free property of degree gradually disappears, and the construction of geo-economic relations is balanced. The scale-free property of weighted degree is significant, and the increase in the number of intermediate-order countries optimizes the weight-degree fractal structure. Geo-economic system belongs to the mismatch network. Geo-economic links follow the selection mechanism and tends to weaken. Secondly, in terms of the functional level, geo-economic system presents a strong relationship-dependent effect and the third-party effect. The association between the weighted degree centrality and eigenvector centrality is the highest and displays a spatial match, both of which gradually form a spatial pattern of East-West parallelism with China and the US acting as two cores. The betweenness centrality and the closeness centrality show spatial homogenization. The quantity distribution of its function type presents a “pyramid” structure, indicating the power of countries in the world economy, while spatially three core-periphery clusters show a “circle” structure. The competitiveness of the central geo-economic zone increased. The network structure of the transformation geo-economic zone is diverse and complicated. The function level of some countries in the general geo-economic zone leaped, while the isolated geo-economic zone remains stable. Natural geospatial separation, national socio-economic development, the interaction and coupling among functional zones are important factors driving the spatial evolution of geo-economic functional zones.

Key words: geo-economy, complex system, attribute features, functional level, evolutionary process

杨文龙, 游小珺, 杜德斌. 商品贸易网络视角下地缘经济系统的属性与功能演进[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(2): 356-372.

YANG Wenlong, YOU Xiaojun, DU Debin. The evolutionary properties and functions of the geo-economic system from the perspective of global commodity trade network[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(2): 356-372.

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年份	聚类系数			平均路径长度			小世界程度值
年份	商品贸易网络	规则网络	随机网络	商品贸易网络	规则网络	随机网络	小世界程度值
1996	0.850	0.732	0.206	1.808	2.940	1.796	0.894
1997	0.853	0.735	0.231	1.768	2.587	1.767	0.894
1998	0.840	0.736	0.253	1.742	2.395	1.745	0.906
1999	0.836	0.737	0.273	1.732	2.287	1.726	0.910
2000	0.830	0.738	0.272	1.725	2.263	1.729	0.915
2001	0.835	0.738	0.276	1.728	2.237	1.724	0.911
2002	0.831	0.738	0.281	1.711	2.193	1.717	0.915
2003	0.828	0.739	0.293	1.697	2.132	1.708	0.917
2004	0.832	0.739	0.305	1.682	2.053	1.696	0.914
2005	0.828	0.739	0.304	1.680	2.033	1.694	0.918
2006	0.831	0.740	0.313	1.672	2.005	1.686	0.915
2007	0.830	0.740	0.322	1.658	1.952	1.677	0.916
2008	0.828	0.740	0.333	1.648	1.901	1.667	0.918
2009	0.828	0.740	0.333	1.651	1.902	1.667	0.918
2010	0.829	0.741	0.338	1.639	1.869	1.660	0.917
2011	0.829	0.741	0.344	1.636	1.849	1.657	0.917
2012	0.833	0.740	0.333	1.658	1.905	1.667	0.915
2013	0.835	0.741	0.339	1.643	1.877	1.661	0.912
2014	0.836	0.741	0.346	1.634	1.844	1.654	0.911
2015	0.833	0.741	0.341	1.636	1.860	1.658	0.913
2016	0.839	0.740	0.326	1.658	1.939	1.674	0.909

	年份	相关系数	95%置信区间	t
度	1996	-0.5874^***	[-0.6065, -0.5678]	-48.11
	2002	-0.2538^***	[-0.2754, -0.2319]	-22.13
	2009	-0.2724^***	[-0.2918, -0.2527]	-26.26
	2016	-0.2714^***	[-0.2909, -0.2516]	-26.05
权重度	1996	-0.5309^***	[-0.5518, -0.5093]	-41.52
	2002	-0.2099^***	[-0.2320, -0.1877]	-18.12
	2009	-0.2061^***	[-0.2263, -0.1858]	-19.54
	2016	-0.2073^***	[-0.2275, -0.1869]	-19.58

年份	权重度中心性	特征向量中心性	介数中心性	接近中心性
1996	美国、德国	美国、加拿大	挪威、印度、英国、芬兰、爱尔兰、希腊、墨西哥	芬兰、爱尔兰、印度、挪威、希腊、土库曼斯坦、巴拉圭、瑞典、巴巴多斯、塔吉克斯坦、丹麦、塞内加尔、墨西哥、匈牙利、爱沙尼亚、贝宁、中国澳门、斯洛文尼亚、伊拉克、捷克、圭亚那、新西兰、阿尔巴尼亚、刚果（金）
2016	中国、美国	中国、美国	卢森堡、澳大利亚、冰岛、菲律宾、缅甸、墨西哥、芬兰、丹麦、中国澳门、新西兰、沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、美国、印度尼西亚、秘鲁、马耳他、卡塔尔、巴西、捷克、加拿大	卢森堡、冰岛、塞拉利昂、吉尔吉斯斯坦、澳大利亚、卡塔尔、秘鲁、沙特阿拉伯、斐济、马耳他、芬兰、菲律宾、阿根廷、门店、利比亚、墨西哥、圭亚那、阿富汗、赞比亚、塞尔维亚、捷克、马来西亚、斯洛伐克、以色列、葡萄牙、亚美尼亚、斯里兰卡、丹麦、印度尼西亚、瑞典、加拿大、毛里求斯、新西兰、巴西、柬埔寨、约旦、罗马尼亚、阿塞拜疆、赞比亚

区域类型	1996年		2002年		2009年		2016年
区域类型	国家(地区)数量	非相似性系数	国家(地区)数量	非相似性系数	国家(地区)数量	非相似性系数	国家(地区)数量	非相似性系数
核心型地缘经济区	20	0.81	25	0.82	22	0.43	27	0.43
中转型地缘经济区	16	0.81	17	0.51	21	0.60	42	1.31
一般型地缘经济区	81	0.63	81	1.45	82	1.93	69	1.87
孤立型地缘经济区	90	1.57	97	2.68	95	2.47	85	2.00

年份	核心型地缘经济区	中转型地缘经济区	一般型地缘经济区	孤立型地缘经济区
1996	中国、美国、印度、日本、中国香港、韩国、德国、加拿大、法国、英国	印度尼西亚、墨西哥、澳大利亚、匈牙利、捷克、葡萄牙、阿根廷、新西兰、波兰、希腊	俄罗斯、马来西亚、秘鲁、巴西、智利、爱沙尼亚、斯洛伐克、阿尔巴尼亚、摩尔多瓦、塔吉克斯坦	刚果（金）、文莱、阿富汗斯坦、乌干达、缅甸、尼日尼亚、赞比亚、津巴布韦、柬埔寨、缅甸
2016	中国、美国、德国、英国、印度、加拿大、中国香港、日本、南非、印度尼西亚	俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、克罗地亚、埃及、阿根廷、澳大利亚、墨西哥、科威特、菲律宾、越南	阿富汗斯坦、缅甸、柬埔寨、奥地利、塔吉克斯坦、亚美尼亚、牙买加、伊朗、伊拉克、肯尼亚	乍得、斐济、老挝、东帝汶、索马里、汤加、瓦努阿图、中非、卢旺达、马拉维