环渤海地区城市规模扩张与质量增长的时空演变及耦合特征

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200126

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市规模扩张与质量增长是当前中国城镇化发展所面临的重要矛盾,如何推动两者的协同演进成为区域城市系统可持续发展的重要命题。本文以中国经济第三个增长极——环渤海地区为研究区,在城市系统理论认识的基础上,构建多维度融合的城市规模与质量测度体系,利用泰尔指数和脱钩模型对城市规模扩张与质量增长的时空演变过程及其耦合关系进行深入分析,并从系统内部性和外部性角度探讨了城市系统高质量运行的影响机制。研究表明：①2000—2019年环渤海地区城市规模扩张与城市质量增长均持续攀升,并呈现出一定的空间格局特征,其中京津冀呈“同心圆”的高-中值分异格局,山东半岛呈“中轴-两翼”的中-高值集聚格局,辽东半岛呈“突变式”的低-中-高三区共存格局。②环渤海地区城市规模扩张与质量增长的区域差异性总体降低,并以区域内差异占据主导,城市规模扩张的差异性降幅为山东半岛>京津冀>辽东半岛,城市质量增长的差异性降幅为京津冀>辽东半岛>山东半岛,不同区域内城市系统演化趋势复杂多样。③环渤海地区城市规模扩张与质量增长的脱钩类型经历了“SND-WD”为主向“WD-SD”为主的变化过程,脱钩状态整体趋于耦合的良性发展,脱钩程度表现为京津冀>山东半岛>辽东半岛。④环渤海地区城市规模扩张与质量增长及其耦合趋优是城市系统内部性和外部性要素综合作用的表现,不同要素通过长效调控、有条件作用和缓慢调节等过程性影响和有效性干预的方式,驱动不同城市系统由规模扩张转向质量增长。

关键词: 规模扩张, 质量增长, 泰尔指数, 脱钩模型, 驱动机制, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

Currently, urban expansion and quality growth constitute the main contradiction in China′s urbanization development. How to measure the coordinated evolution of the two factors has become an important issue for the sustainable development of regional cities. This paper takes the third growth pole of China's economy, the Bohai Rim region as the research area. Based on the understanding of the urban system theory, a multi-dimensional integrated urban scale and quality measurement system is constructed, and the spatio-temporal evolution and coupling relationship between urban scale expansion and quality growth are analyzed by using the Theil index and decoupling model. The influence mechanism of urban system high-quality operation is explored in both internal and external aspects. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2019, the urban scale expansion and urban quality growth in the Bohai Rim region continued to rise, and showed certain spatial pattern characteristics, in which Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) showed a "concentric circle" pattern of high-medium differentiation, Shandong Peninsula showed an "axis and wing" pattern of medium-high value agglomeration, Liaodong Peninsula showed a "mutation" pattern of low-medium-high areas coexistence. (2) The regional differences of urban expansion and quality growth in the Bohai Rim are generally reduced, with the regional differences in the three regions occupying the leading position. Reduction speeds of urban expansion are in an order of Shandong Peninsula > BTH > Liaodong Peninsula, and reduction speeds of urban quality growth are in an order of BTH > Liaodong Peninsula > Shandong Peninsula. The evolution trend of cities in different regions is complex and diverse. (3) The decoupling type of urban expansion and quality growth in the Bohai Rim region has experienced an evolutionary process from "SND-WD" to "WD-SD". The decoupling state tends to be coupled as a whole, and the degree of decoupling is in an order of BTH > Shandong Peninsula > Liaodong Peninsula. (4) The urban expansion, quality growth and their coupling and optimization in the Bohai Rim region are the manifestation of the comprehensive effects of the internal and external factors influencing the urban system. Many different factors promote different urban systems to transform from scale expansion to quality growth through long-term regulation, conditional effects, slow regulation and effective intervention.

Key words: scale expansion, quality growth, Theil index, decoupling model, driving mechanism, Bohai Rim

曲衍波, 王霞, 王世磊, 朱伟亚, 平宗莉, 王森. 环渤海地区城市规模扩张与质量增长的时空演变及耦合特征[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(3): 762-778.

QU Yanbo, WANG Xia, WANG Shilei, ZHU Weiya, PING Zongli, WANG Sen. Spatio-temporal evolution and coupling characteristics of urban scale expansion and quality growth in Bohai Rim[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(3): 762-778.

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评价目标	评价内容（权重）	评价指标（单位）	权重	指标属性
城市规模（S）	A人口规模（0.3303）	A1市辖区非农人口数（万人）	0.2070	+
	A人口规模（0.3303）	A2人口城市化率（%）	0.1233	+
	B空间规模（0.5177）	B1建成区面积（km²）	0.2601	+
	B空间规模（0.5177）	B2土地城市化率（%）	0.2575	+
	C经济规模（0.1521）	C1市辖区第二三产产值（万元）	0.1038	+
	C经济规模（0.1521）	C2经济城市化率（%）	0.0483	+
城市质量（Q）	D经济发展质量（0.3762）	D1市辖区人均GDP（元）	0.0464	+
		D2市辖区人均工业产值（元）	0.0610	+
		D3第三产业占比（%）	0.0185	+
		D4市辖区人均固定资产投资额（元）	0.0562	+
		D5市辖区单位从业人员数（万人）	0.1399	+
		D6市辖区人均公共财政支出（元）	0.0543	+
	E社会生活质量（0.1868）	E1在岗职工平均工资（元）	0.0149	+
		E2市辖区人均社会消费品销售额（元)	0.0455	+
		E3每百人公共图书馆藏书（册、件）	0.1018	+
		E4市辖区每万人拥有医生数（人）	0.0246	+
	F生态环境质量（0.1373）	F1建成区绿化覆盖率（%）	0.0518	+
		F2一般工业固体废物综合利用率（%）	0.0643	+
		F3全市工业二氧化硫排放量（t）	0.0211	-
	G城市建设质量（0.2998）	G1市辖区人均科学教育事业支出（元）	0.0551	+
		G2市辖区人均道路面积（m²）	0.0459	+
		G3全年用电总量（万kW/h）	0.1585	+
		G4每万人公交车拥有量（辆）	0.0402	+

	城市规模扩张				城市质量增长
	阈值	平均值	标准差	变异系数	阈值	平均值	标准差	变异系数
2000年	[2.77,58.8]	41.54	21.77	0.52	[3.64,33.4]	25.18	5.84	0.23
2005年	[4.04,85.4]	52.25	38.24	0.73	[3.47,38.9]	36.89	10.98	0.30
2010年	[4.17,84.5]	61.66	42.07	0.68	[5.95,55.8]	45.05	15.81	0.35
2015年	[6.79,92.2]	77.76	45.49	0.59	[5.73,61.7]	57.29	25.91	0.45
2019年	[8.31,93.6]	80.43	47.10	0.51	[6.10,69.7]	62.23	31.97	0.49

状态	脱钩类型		城市数量（个）/占比（%）
状态	脱钩类型		2000—2005年	2005—2010年	2010—2015年	2015—2019年	2000—2019年
非耦合	负脱钩（ND）	增长负脱钩（GND）	4/9.09	10/22.73	4/5.19	2/4.55	5/11.36
		强负脱钩（SND）	9/20.45	12/27.27	6/13.64	—	—
		弱负脱钩（WND）	1/2.27	—	—	—	—
过渡	连接（C）	增长连接（GC）	2/4.55	1/2.27	4/5.19	9/20.45	11/25.00
	连接（C）	衰退连接（RC）	—	—	—	—	—
耦合	脱钩（D）	弱脱钩（WD）	20/45.45	20/45.45	20/45.45	19/43.18	25/56.82
		强脱钩（SD）	8/20.45	1/2.27	10/22.73	14/31.82	3/6.82
		衰退脱钩（RD）	—	—	—	—	—