地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2669-2684.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200298

• 专栏：“一带一路”研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国对非洲承包工程时空演变过程与影响机制

刘志高1,2,3(), 薛嘉顺1,4, 王涛1,4, 宋涛1,3()   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3.中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    4.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-09 修回日期:2020-09-23 出版日期:2020-12-20 发布日期:2021-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 宋涛
  • 作者简介:刘志高（1974-）,男,湖北江陵人,副研究员,硕士生导师,研究方向为产业演化、对外投资。E-mail: liuzhigao@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41530751);国家自然科学基金项目(41701131);国家自然科学基金项目(41901154);国家自然科学基金项目(41701138);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项“地球大数据科学工程”(XDA19040403);国家社会科学基金项目(17VDL008);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK1007)

The spatio-temporal evolutionary process and mechanism of China's overseas contracted projects in Africa

LIU Zhigao1,2,3(), XUE Jiashun1,4, WANG Tao1,4, SONG Tao1,3()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-04-09 Revised:2020-09-23 Online:2020-12-20 Published:2021-02-20
  • Contact: SONG Tao

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摘要：

工程承包是中非合作的重要内容,也是中国经济外交的重要组成部分。中国对外承包工程的空间分布格局受到的国内外关注日益增多,但在中长期视角下探讨中国对外承包工程影响要素的时空差异性研究还有待进一步完善。本文首先结合1949年以来中国经济社会发展和外交政策变化,总结了1950—2017年中国对非洲承包工程时空演变的基本特征;其次,基于2001—2017年中国对非洲承包工程的相关统计年鉴数据,探讨了影响其空间分布的主要因素及时间变化特征。研究发现：中国对非洲承包工程倾向于向市场规模大、开放度高、基础设施不完善、自然资源丰富、无严重外债问题、技术相对落后的东道国集中;受到良好双边关系的促进,并呈现出高经济风险的偏好特征。从时间变化上看,东道国短期市场状况成为愈发重要的影响因素,自然资源的影响力逐渐减弱,而相关政策措施开始发挥重要作用;政治风险抑制作用降低,高经济风险的偏好仍然存在;双边政治关系和文化关系发挥着越来越重要的作用。本研究丰富了中长期视角下中国对外承包工程影响要素的时空差异研究,并为科学制定“一带一路”基础设施领域在非洲高质量发展的相关政策提供了研究支撑。

关键词: 对外承包工程, 时空分异, 影响机制, 中国, 非洲

Abstract:

China's foreign contracted projects (FCPs) are generally considered as part of both Sino-Africa cooperation and China's economic diplomacy. With the rapid growth of China's FCPs, the increasing attention has been paid in recent years to their spatial patterns, especially in Asian and African countries. However, to date, there have been few studies on the spatial and temporal evolution of China's FCPs in Africa from the medium- and long-term perspectives. This article tries to fill this gap and examine the spatio-temporal evolutionary process and mechanism of China's overseas contracted projects in Africa. On the basis of analysis of socio-economic development and evolution of foreign policy since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, we firstly summarize the basic features of the evolution of China's FCPs in Africa from 1950 to 2017. Secondly, we identify main factors affecting the spatial distribution of China's FCPs in Africa and their temporal characteristics by analyzing the transnational panel data collected from 2001 to 2017. It is found that China's FCPs in Africa have experienced four historical stages. In the initial stage from 1956 to 1981, China's FCPs were conducted mainly in the form of foreign aid, which laid the foundation for further development. Between 1982 and 1999, China's FCPs experienced the market-oriented reform, and clustered in African coastal areas. After the rapid growth during 2000-2008, China's FCPs in Africa slowed down, and new project cooperation and financing modes were developed since 2009. From the spatial perspective, China's FCPs tend to concentrate in host countries with large domestic market, high openness, poor infrastructure, rich natural resources, relatively poor technical conditions, and few external debts, especially those countries or regions that keep sound bilateral relationships with China. In addition, the large African destination countries of China's FCPs tend to have higher economic risk to some extent for economic or other considerations. From the temporal perspective, the short-term macroeconomic situations are found to show greater significance while the importance of natural resources and political risks are weakening. Meanwhile, China's foreign investment policies have much more importance, and with the evolving investment institutions in host countries, China's FCPs in Africa still keep a high-risk tendency for more profits. Political and cultural bilateral relations played an important role in China's FCPs in Africa. The study enriches the research on the spatio-temporal variation of the factors influencing the China's FCPs in Africa. Additionally, it would be useful in formulating high-quality development policies on infrastructure construction in Africa in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: foreign contracted projects, spatio-temporal differentiation, influence mechanism, China, Africa