地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (9): 2130-2147.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200360

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粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化时空特征及其经济效应

李琼1,2(), 李松林1, 张蓝澜3, 李昊4, 刘毅5()   

  1. 1.吉首大学商学院,吉首 416000
    2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所吉首大学院士专家工作站,吉首 416000
    3.长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,长沙 410000
    4.湖南工商大学会计学院,长沙 410205
    5.粤港澳大湾区战略研究院,广州 510070
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-06 修回日期:2020-09-08 出版日期:2020-09-20 发布日期:2020-11-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘毅
  • 作者简介:李琼（1972-）, 女, 湖南桑植人, 教授, 博导, 研究方向为区域经济。E-mail: sisi_9672@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    粤港澳大湾区战略研究院建设专项(2019GDASYL-0202001);广东省科学院发展专项(2020GDASYL-20200102002);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2020JJ4503)

The spatio-temporal characteristics of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's population aging and its economic effects

LI Qiong1,2(), LI Songlin1, ZHANG Lanlan3, LI Hao4, LIU Yi5()   

  1. 1. Business School of Jishou University, Jishou 416000, Hunan China
    2. Jishou University Academician Workstation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Jishou 416000, Hunan China
    3. School of Economics and Management, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410000, China
    4. School of Accounting, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China
    5. Academy of Great Bay Area Studies, Guangzhou 510070, China
  • Received:2020-05-06 Revised:2020-09-08 Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-11-20
  • Contact: LIU Yi

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摘要：

中国新时代“两个十五年”的现代化强国战略周期,恰恰是快速人口老龄化纵深发展期,人口年龄结构快速老龄化与经济社会之间的发展不平衡矛盾将日益严峻。本文利用广东省第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查资料、2015年广东省1%人口抽样调查资料、香港统计年刊和澳门统计年鉴数据,运用空间自相关分析法、柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和空间回归等方法,研究2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化的时空特征及其经济效应,结果表明：① 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化进程慢于广东省,更慢于全国,但于2015年已进入老年型I期。② 粤港澳大湾区老龄化呈动态演变特征,空间上以香港和江门为起点,经西北向北扩散的“C”型分布模式,高收入城市以澳门和香港为起点向北扩散,最终形成中心-外围的空间分布格局。③ 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化对经济增长具有负向影响,老龄人口增加1%,人均GDP降低3%。人均固定资本投入和人均人力资本投入有正的经济效应,人均人力资本投入带来的正向效应要大于人均固定资本投入。鉴于此,粤、港、澳三地应建立起协同治理模式,构建跨境的养老合作机制;促进产业结构升级,充分利用人力资本促进技术创新,并正确评估不同阶段人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,妥善处理好人口老龄化与经济之间的关系至关重要。

关键词: 粤港澳大湾区, 人口老龄化, 经济效应, 时空特征

Abstract:

The strategic cycle of "two fifteen years" of China's modernization in the new era is exactly the period of rapid population aging, and the imbalance between the rapid aging of the population age structure and the development of the economy and society will become increasingly serious. This paper uses the data of the fourth, fifth and sixth censuses of Guangdong Province, the sample survey data of 1% population in Guangdong Province in 2015, the data of Hong Kong Statistical Yearbook and Macao Statistical Yearbook. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, Cobb Douglas production function and spatial regression methods were used in this study, the spatio-temporal characteristics and economic effects of population aging in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2015 were studied. The results of our study show that: (1) The aging process of population in the Greater Bay Area is slower than that of Guangdong and even slower than that of the whole country, but it transformed into the senile type I in 2015. (2) The aging coefficient of the study area shows a dynamic evolution feature. The spatial pattern of "C" type started from Hong Kong and Jiangmen of Guangdong and spread northward through the northwest. High income cities spread northward from Macao and Hong Kong, and finally formed a center-periphery distribution pattern. (3) The aging population in the Greater Bay Area has a negative impact on economic growth. The aging population increased by 1%, and the per capita GDP decreased by 3%. Per capita fixed capital investment and per capita human capital investment had positive effect on economic growth, and the positive effect of per capita human capital investment was greater than that of per capita fixed capital investment. In view of this, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao should establish a collaborative governance model and build a cross-border pension cooperation mechanism. It is essential to promote industrial restructuring and encourage technological innovation, assess the impact of population aging on economic growth at different stages, and handle the relationship between population aging and economy.

Key words: the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, population aging, economic effect, spatio-temporal characteristics