地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 1387-1403.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200410
宋洋1,2(), 朱道林1,3(
), YEUNG Godfrey2, 徐阳4,5, 张立新6,7
收稿日期:
2020-05-15
接受日期:
2020-08-31
出版日期:
2021-05-10
发布日期:
2021-07-10
通讯作者:
朱道林
作者简介:
宋洋(1990-),男,山东济宁人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市土地利用与管理。E-mail:young_song@hotmail.com
基金资助:
SONG Yang1,2(), ZHU Daolin1,3(
), YEUNG Godfrey2, XU Yang4,5, ZHANG Lixin6,7
Received:
2020-05-15
Accepted:
2020-08-31
Online:
2021-05-10
Published:
2021-07-10
Contact:
ZHU Daolin
摘要:
构建城市用地结构时空格局演变分析框架,引入信息熵和偏移份额模型定量剖析2000—2017年中国东北地区城市用地结构时空格局演变特征,通过计量经济模型分阶段对比分析收缩情境下东北地区城市用地结构演变的动力机制。结果表明:东北地区城市用地总面积持续增长,用地结构信息熵整体呈现先上升、后下降的趋势。2011年以后,城市用地结构有序性、多样性不断提升,单一优势地类主导作用显著下降。公共设施用地、道路交通用地及绿地与广场用地为增长型地类,是东北地区城市用地规模扩张和结构演变的主要动因。用地结构竞争性偏移量具有显著的空间非均衡性,总体与辽中南和哈长两大城市群空间格局基本吻合,新增城市用地的集聚效应不断凸显。城市人口规模变迁、城市经济发展水平提升、产业结构升级与城市居住条件改善对城市用地结构演变具有显著的正向驱动作用。收缩情境下,各因素的拉动作用逐渐减弱,国家宏观政策的约束力不断增强,城市公共服务水平改善的强需求成为驱动用地结构演变的外在动力。
宋洋, 朱道林, YEUNG Godfrey, 徐阳, 张立新. 收缩情境下城市用地结构时空格局演变及动力机制——以中国东北地区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(5): 1387-1403.
SONG Yang, ZHU Daolin, YEUNG Godfrey, XU Yang, ZHANG Lixin. Spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of urban land use structure with the context of urban shrinkage: Evidence from Northeast China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(5): 1387-1403.
表1
2000—2017年东北地区城市用地结构占比与信息熵、均衡度和优势度"
年份 | 城市用地结构占比(%) | 信息熵 | 均衡度 | 优势度 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
居住 用地 | 公共设施 用地 | 工业 用地 | 仓储 用地 | 道路交通 用地 | 市政公用 设施用地 | 绿地与 广场用地 | ||||
2000 | 34.03 | 9.29 | 24.42 | 4.57 | 13.55 | 5.66 | 8.49 | 1.7156 | 0.8816 | 0.1184 |
2001 | 33.78 | 9.23 | 24.36 | 4.31 | 13.65 | 5.23 | 9.45 | 1.7150 | 0.8813 | 0.1187 |
2002 | 33.73 | 9.30 | 24.19 | 4.43 | 13.85 | 5.27 | 9.22 | 1.7176 | 0.8827 | 0.1173 |
2003 | 34.27 | 9.55 | 23.64 | 4.32 | 13.25 | 5.57 | 9.41 | 1.7189 | 0.8833 | 0.1167 |
2004 | 33.46 | 9.99 | 23.92 | 4.09 | 13.36 | 5.62 | 9.57 | 1.7245 | 0.8862 | 0.1138 |
2005 | 32.75 | 10.17 | 24.34 | 3.84 | 13.65 | 5.77 | 9.47 | 1.7269 | 0.8875 | 0.1125 |
2006 | 32.29 | 10.13 | 23.22 | 3.76 | 14.27 | 6.70 | 9.63 | 1.7436 | 0.8960 | 0.1040 |
2007 | 33.16 | 10.33 | 22.78 | 3.89 | 14.27 | 5.97 | 9.61 | 1.7348 | 0.8915 | 0.1085 |
2008 | 32.54 | 10.25 | 22.56 | 4.17 | 14.66 | 5.75 | 10.07 | 1.7441 | 0.8963 | 0.1037 |
2009 | 32.48 | 10.59 | 23.23 | 4.10 | 14.83 | 5.24 | 9.53 | 1.7346 | 0.8914 | 0.1086 |
2010 | 32.99 | 10.54 | 22.47 | 3.81 | 14.73 | 5.22 | 10.23 | 1.7325 | 0.8903 | 0.1097 |
2011 | 32.63 | 9.56 | 22.60 | 3.77 | 14.98 | 6.31 | 10.16 | 1.7404 | 0.8944 | 0.1056 |
2012 | 33.43 | 15.69 | 20.97 | 3.49 | 11.91 | 3.97 | 10.54 | 1.7202 | 0.8840 | 0.1160 |
2013 | 33.23 | 14.69 | 22.48 | 3.57 | 12.00 | 3.84 | 10.18 | 1.7146 | 0.8811 | 0.1189 |
2014 | 32.99 | 14.93 | 22.50 | 3.40 | 12.30 | 3.81 | 10.07 | 1.7138 | 0.8807 | 0.1193 |
2015 | 33.30 | 14.59 | 22.40 | 3.21 | 13.66 | 3.40 | 9.45 | 1.7023 | 0.8748 | 0.1252 |
2016 | 31.43 | 14.13 | 24.35 | 3.13 | 14.60 | 3.14 | 9.20 | 1.7020 | 0.8747 | 0.1253 |
2017 | 31.87 | 13.46 | 24.15 | 3.00 | 14.88 | 3.05 | 9.60 | 1.6974 | 0.8723 | 0.1277 |
表2
2000—2017年东北地区城市用地结构性偏移量"
居住用地 | 公共设施用地 | 工业用地 | 仓储用地 | 道路交通用地 | 市政公用设施用地 | 绿地与广场用地 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
沈阳 | -7.5107 | 19.4225 | -0.9948 | -6.7956 | 4.3689 | -23.5235 | 3.3540 |
大连 | -7.7678 | 15.4377 | -1.1050 | -6.4962 | 6.5107 | -15.4090 | 3.9697 |
鞍山 | -3.4116 | 7.8081 | -1.0074 | -1.9463 | 4.0033 | -4.3278 | 4.2455 |
抚顺 | -3.2788 | 8.0884 | -0.7838 | -3.2090 | 2.2977 | -4.9124 | 1.3717 |
本溪 | -1.8881 | 1.5548 | -0.5283 | -1.4971 | 0.9651 | -1.1343 | 0.5418 |
丹东 | -2.0376 | 2.8802 | -0.2275 | -1.1001 | 1.3920 | -3.0277 | 1.2214 |
锦州 | -2.6642 | 7.6721 | -0.2614 | -1.6794 | 1.1525 | -3.0539 | 0.5762 |
营口 | -2.1404 | 3.4835 | -0.3099 | -1.1717 | 1.3734 | -1.2215 | 0.3694 |
阜新 | -3.6483 | 0.1699 | -0.1476 | -1.7575 | 0.7981 | -0.7853 | 0.8865 |
辽阳 | -1.5701 | 5.3781 | -0.6006 | -2.1741 | 0.9521 | -4.4848 | 1.9528 |
盘锦 | -2.4681 | 2.0051 | -0.1906 | -2.3108 | 1.5293 | -2.3733 | 0.9382 |
铁岭 | -1.2783 | 3.4665 | -0.1602 | -1.1586 | 1.2064 | -1.4048 | 0.8865 |
朝阳 | -0.7832 | 2.7613 | -0.0342 | -0.9959 | 0.6087 | -0.6806 | 0.8127 |
葫芦岛 | -2.0663 | 3.6704 | -0.3542 | -0.7486 | 1.2769 | -2.1639 | 0.6452 |
长春 | -3.8803 | 25.0130 | -0.6973 | -3.1049 | 7.1343 | -7.4340 | 2.9625 |
吉林 | -4.3227 | 2.8802 | -0.6187 | -2.7990 | 1.4755 | -4.8949 | 1.6622 |
四平 | -1.3871 | 3.0587 | -0.2089 | -1.1196 | 1.2398 | -1.6927 | 0.4063 |
辽源 | -1.3058 | 1.7502 | -0.2159 | -0.7160 | 0.4640 | -0.8900 | 0.6107 |
通化 | -1.5940 | 1.7927 | -0.1231 | -0.5207 | 0.6700 | -1.0994 | 0.1354 |
白山 | -1.2006 | 1.3254 | -0.0683 | -0.2994 | 0.3433 | -1.9196 | 0.2832 |
松原 | -1.6179 | 2.8632 | -0.1048 | -0.6704 | 0.5661 | -0.5584 | 1.2288 |
白城 | -1.1719 | 3.8233 | -0.0991 | -1.0415 | 0.7795 | -0.8725 | 0.6156 |
哈尔滨 | -5.4874 | 16.6187 | -0.8915 | -5.5589 | 4.7846 | -9.8596 | 3.5166 |
齐齐哈尔 | -5.2853 | 4.7579 | -0.5567 | -5.2074 | 1.9487 | -3.0539 | 1.2313 |
鸡西 | -4.9912 | 3.1946 | -0.2939 | -1.6338 | 1.4198 | -1.2215 | 0.5565 |
鹤岗 | -2.6905 | 2.6593 | -0.3634 | -1.5297 | 0.7275 | -1.2652 | 1.7263 |
双鸭山 | -3.5754 | 3.2286 | -0.2108 | -0.9764 | 1.2806 | -0.6108 | 0.5171 |
大庆 | -5.7505 | 11.8778 | -0.5962 | -6.2488 | 4.0849 | -6.2299 | 1.5613 |
伊春 | -7.8180 | 12.2686 | -0.3995 | -4.3677 | 2.2754 | -3.2458 | 8.8949 |
佳木斯 | -1.9407 | 1.8097 | -0.2612 | -2.3433 | 1.2917 | -1.5793 | 2.3321 |
七台河 | -4.2558 | 14.7665 | -0.4695 | -1.8877 | 3.0159 | -8.1931 | 1.8174 |
牡丹江 | -1.8176 | 3.7384 | -0.2340 | -1.4971 | 1.4476 | -1.3961 | 1.1082 |
黑河 | -0.5859 | 1.1895 | -0.0358 | -0.9764 | 0.5568 | -0.6980 | 0.0739 |
绥化 | -1.2795 | 0.1699 | -0.0632 | -0.9113 | 0.6125 | -1.4833 | 0.6895 |
总计 | -104.4716 | 202.5850 | -13.2171 | -76.4507 | 64.5535 | -126.7008 | 53.7017 |
表4
模型估计结果"
变量名称 | (Ⅰ)全样本 | (Ⅱ)增长情境 | (Ⅲ)收缩情境 |
---|---|---|---|
lnPop | 0.1340*** | 0.0985*** | 0.0690* |
(0.0205) | (0.0334) | (0.0371) | |
lnGDPpc | 0.0445** | 0.0544** | 0.0107 |
(0.0182) | (0.0227) | (0.0334) | |
lnIndus | 0.0442*** | 0.0608*** | 0.0289 |
(0.0129) | (0.0176) | (0.0203) | |
lnExpend | 0.00345 | 0.00996 | 0.0688** |
(0.0108) | (0.0131) | (0.0308) | |
lnRes | 0.0193*** | 0.0212** | 0.0160 |
(0.0072) | (0.0104) | (0.0114) | |
Policy | -0.0669*** | -0.0489 | -0.0563** |
(0.0176) | (0.0320) | (0.0248) | |
_cons | 1.0810*** | 0.826*** | 0.7410*** |
(0.0907) | (0.1268) | (0.2358) | |
R2 | 0.2080 | 0.2530 | 0.2180 |
N | 612 | 340 | 272 |
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