青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200661

地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 1223-1238.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200661

• 专栏：高原科学与可持续发展 • 下一篇

青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估

杨登兴¹^,²(), 刘峰贵²^,³(), 延军平¹, 张镱锂³^,⁴, 陈琼², 周强²

1.陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院西安 710119
2.青海师范大学地理科学学院西宁 810008
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101
4.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心, 北京 100101

收稿日期:2020-07-13 接受日期:2021-02-04 出版日期:2021-05-10 发布日期:2021-07-10
通讯作者: 刘峰贵
作者简介:杨登兴（1975-）,男,甘肃武威人,博士,主要研究自然灾害与防御。E-mail:yangdx0971@126.com
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题“综合灾害风险评价与防御”(2019QZKK0906);国家自然科学基金项目(40761003)

A risk assessment of snow disaster along Qinghai-Tibet Railway

YANG Dengxing¹^,²(), LIU Fenggui²^,³(), YAN Junping¹, ZHANG Yili³^,⁴, CHEN Qiong², ZHOU Qiang²

1. School of Geographic Sciences and Tourism, Shanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China
2. School of Geographic Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2020-07-13 Accepted:2021-02-04 Online:2021-05-10 Published:2021-07-10
Contact: LIU Fenggui

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雪灾是青藏铁路及其沿线地区所面临的严重自然灾害之一,对其风险等级进行科学评估,是制定应急方案、确保青藏铁路安全运行的重要基础。本文基于历史雪灾数据和铁路相关数据,选择27项指标构建青藏铁路及其沿线的雪灾综合风险评估体系,对青藏铁路沿线积雪雪灾、雪崩雪灾和风吹雪雪灾的致灾危险性、铁路系统的脆弱性进行了综合分析。分析表明：青藏铁路沿线雪灾高风险区分布在唐古拉-安多路段,雪灾中等风险区主要分布在天峻-乌兰、五道梁-安多等2个路段,雪灾低风险区主要集中在西宁-天峻、德令哈-格尔木和那曲-拉萨等3个路段。从整个青藏铁路沿线来看,青南高原路段是青藏铁路沿线雪灾综合风险等级最高的区域。

关键词: 青藏铁路, 雪灾, 风险评估

Abstract:

The main natural calamity affecting land transportation routes are floods, snow, heavy fog, landslides, mudslides, strong winds, hail, thunder and lightning, and extreme temperatures. The interrupted transportation will have a huge negative effect on the socio-economic system. The World Economic Cooperation and Development Organization and the International Future Plan clearly regard transportation as one of the major risk engineering fields that must be given attention in the 21st century. Since the 1990s, relevant researchers have conducted in-depth investigations and comprehensive studies on geological, frozen soil, and meteorological disasters along China's main traffic lines, and discussed the degree of natural disasters along the main lines of traffic, their causes, and disaster mitigation countermeasures. Since 2000, with the gradual improvement of the theoretical system of risk assessment for major construction projects and lifeline projects, specific methods for quantitative identification, estimation, evaluation and decision-making have been proposed, and much research has been carried out on the risk factors, vulnerability and risk degree of lifeline engineering and railway transportation system. A basic evaluation model has been established and corresponding evaluation software has been developed. In particular, it is of great significance to conduct quantitative studies of disaster risk and vulnerability of the risk bearing body based on natural disasters and road maintenance data along the Eurasian Continental Bridge. With the increasing uncertainty brought about by global climate change, research on natural disaster risks faced by China's high-speed railways, highways and urban public transportation systems has become a hot spot. Snow disaster is one of the severe natural disasters along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and its neighboring areas. Assessment of its risk grade is an important foundation for making emergency and ensuring safety operations of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. We constructed a comprehensive risk assessment system of snow disaster in this region composed of 27 indexes based on historical snow disasters and relevant railway data. And then, the comprehensive analyses are conducted for three types of snow disaster risk of perpetual snow, avalanche and wind-blown and vulnerability of railway network. The result shows that, the high risk region of snow disasters along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is mainly distributed in Tanggula-Anduo section, the medium risk region is mainly distributed in Tianjun-Wulan and Wudaoliang-Anduo sections, and low risk regions are in Xining-Tianpeng, Delingha-Golmud and Naqu-Lhasa road sections. As a whole, the section in southern Qinghai Plateau became the highest comprehensive risk region for snow disaster along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Railway, snow disaster, risk assessment

杨登兴, 刘峰贵, 延军平, 张镱锂, 陈琼, 周强. 青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(5): 1223-1238.

YANG Dengxing, LIU Fenggui, YAN Junping, ZHANG Yili, CHEN Qiong, ZHOU Qiang. A risk assessment of snow disaster along Qinghai-Tibet Railway[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(5): 1223-1238.

图/表 10

图1

表1

图2

表2

表3

表4

图3

图4

图5

图6

参考文献 59

[1]	Brabhaharan P, Wiles L M, Frietag S. Natural Hazard Road Risk Management Part Ш: Performance Criteria. Wellington: Land Transport New Zealand, 2006: 9-13.
[2]	刘燕华, 葛全胜, 方修琦, 等. 全球环境变化与中国国家安全. 地球科学进展, 2006,21(4):346-351.
	[ Liu Yanhua, Ge Quansheng, Fang Xiuqi, et al. Global environmental change and the national security of China. Advances in Earth Science, 2006,21(4):346-351.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2006.04.003.
[3]	Augusti G, Borri A, Ciampoly M. Optimal allocation resources in the reduction of the seismic risk of highway networks. Engineering Structures, 1994,16(7):184-497. DOI: 10.1016/0141-0296(94)90085-X.
[4]	江辉, 金佳敏, 王志刚, 等. 基于IDA的深水连续刚构桥桥墩概率性地震损伤特性. 中国公路学报, 2017,30(12):93-104.
	[ Jiang Hui, Jin Jiamin, Wang Zhigang, et al. Probabilistic seismic damage characteristics for piers of deep-water continuous rigid fram bridge based on IDA method. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2017,30(12):93-104.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7372.2017.12.010.
[5]	Hungr S, Evans G, Hazzard J. Magnitude and frequency of rock falls and rock slides along the main transportation corridors of Southwestern British Columbia. Canadian Geotechnical, Journal, 1999,36(2):224-238. DOI: 10.1139/cgj-36-2-224.
[6]	Chang S E. Disasters and transport systems: Loss, recovery and competition at the Port of Kobe after the 1995 earthquake. Journal of Transport Geography, 2000,8(1):53-65. DOI: 10.1016/S0966-6923(99)00023-X.
[7]	Dalziell E, Nicholson A. Risk and impact of natural hazards on a road network. Journals of Transport Energy, 2001,127(2):159-166. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2001)127: 2(159).
[8]	Berdica K. Analyzing vulnerability in the road transportation system: Putting theory into practice using Sweden as an example. Transport Policy, 2002,76(TRITA-IP), 5-30.
[9]	黄明华, 郑新业. 苏皖两省铁路自然灾害规律的探讨. 铁道师院学报(自然科学版), 1994,11(4):31-43.
	[ Huang Minghua, Zheng Xinye. Research for the regularity of natural railway disasters in Jiangsu and Anhui. Journal of Shuzhou Railway Teachers College, 1994,11(4):31-43.]
[10]	周华国, 魏庆朝, 曾学贵, 等. 近十几年来中国铁路水害的时空统计特征. 自然灾害学报, 1995,4(4):76-81.
	[ Zhou Huaguo, Wei Qingchao, Zeng Xuegui, et al. The statistical characteristics of railway flood disasters in recent 10 years in China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1995,4(4):76-81.]
[11]	周华国, 魏庆朝, 张庆珩, 等. 我国铁路自然灾害的综合区划及减灾对策的探讨. 自然灾害学报, 1996,5(1):8-13.
	[ Zhou Huaguo, Wei Qingchao, Zhang Qingheng, et al. Integrated regional division of China's railway natural disasters and reduction countermeasures. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1996,5(1):8-13.] DOI: 10.1007/BF02951625.
[12]	吴为禄, 李光伟. 既有铁路地质灾害信息系统研究. 北京测绘, 1996,(4):28-34.
	[ Wu Weilu, Li Guangwei. Research on the information system for geological disaster of existing railways. Beijing Surveying, 1996,(4):28-34.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2106.2006.z1.044.
[13]	徐叔鹰. 中国铁路自然灾害的成因与类型. 铁道师院学报, 1997,47(4):33-39.
	[ Xu Shuying. Cause of formation and types of railway natural disasters in China. Journal of Shuzhou Railway Teachers College, 1997,47(4):33-39.]
[14]	张清, 黄朝迎. 我国交通运输气候灾害的初步研究. 灾害学, 1998,13(3):43-46.
	[ Zhang Qing, Huang Chaoying. A preliminary research on climate disasters in transportation in China. Journal of Catastrophology, 1998,13(3):43-46.]
[15]	佘廉, 戴行信, 洪元义. 中国交通灾害. 长沙: 湖南人民出版社, 1998: 2-302.
	[ She Lian, Dai Xingxin, Hong Yuanyi. China's Traffic Disaster. Changsha: Hunan People's Publishing House, 1998: 2-302.]
[16]	陈廷方, 崔鹏, 陈兴长. 西部地区重大工程建设中的泥石流灾害: 兼论其与环境的互馈作用. 自然灾害学报, 2005,14(2):16-22.
	[ Chen Tingfang, Cui Peng, Chen Xingchang. Debris flue' hazards from major engineering construction in western China and on interaction between debris flow and environmen. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2005,14(2):16-22.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2005.02.003.
[17]	崔鹏, 杨坤, 朱颖彦, 等. 西部山区交通线路的泥石流灾害及减灾对策. 山地学报, 2004,22(3):326-331.
	[ Cui Peng, Yang Kun, Zhu Yingyan, et al. Debris flow hazards along the traffic lines in mountain areas of western China. Journal of Mountain Science, 2004,22(3):326-331.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2004.03.012.
[18]	谢修齐, 魏鸿, 石胜国, 等. 成昆铁路山坡泥石流活动危险度区划. 铁道工程学报, 1999,1(61):78-84.
	[ Xie Xiuqi, Wei Hong, Shi Shengguo, et al. Division on the mountain slop debris flow risks along railway. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 1999,1(61):78-84.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2106.1999.01.016.
[19]	程国栋, 何平. 多年冻土地区线性工程建设. 冰川冻土, 2001,23(3):213-217.
	[ Cheng Guodong, He Ping. Linearity engineering in permafrost area. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2001,23(3):213-217.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2001.03.001.
[20]	程国栋. 青藏铁路工程与多年冻土相互作用及环境效应. 中国科学院院刊, 2002,17(1):21-25.
	[ Cheng Guodong. Interaction between Qinghai-Tibet Railway engineering and permafrost and environmental effects. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2002,17(1):21-25.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3045.2002.01.007.
[21]	何易平, 李泳, 崔鹏. 流团模型在泥石流危险度分区中的应用. 山地学报, 2003,21(6):726-730.
	[ He Yiping, Li Yong, Cui Peng. Application of particle model in risk zoning of debris flow. Mountain Research, 2003,21(6):726-730.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2003.06.015.
[22]	李新运, 常勇, 李望, 等. 重大工程项目灾害风险评估方法研究. 自然灾害学报, 1998,7(4):24-29.
	[ Li Xinyun, Chang Yong, Li Wang, et al. Research on disaster risk assessment for critical engineering. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1998,7(4):24-29.]
[23]	李云君, 刘志红, 吕远洋, 等. 四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证. 地球信息科学学报, 2017,19(7):941-949.
	[ Li Yunjun, Liu Zhihong, Lv Yuanyang, et al. Establishment and validation of a meteorological warning model for landslide hazards in Sichuan province. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(7):941-949.] DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00941.
[24]	陈曦炜, 裴志远, 王飞. 基于GIS的贫困地区降雨诱发型地质灾害风险评估: 以湖北省恩施州为例. 地球信息科学学报, 2016,18(3):343-352.
	[ Chen Xiwei, Pei Zhiyuan, Wang Fei. GIS-based assessment of rainstorm-induced geological hazards risk in Enshi Autonomous Prefecture. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016,18(3):343-352.] DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00343.
[25]	郭恩栋, 冯启民, 王东升, 等. 生命线工程震害损失快速评估方法及软件研究. 世界地震工程, 1998,14(3):1-5.
	[ Guo Engdong, Feng Qiming, Wang Dongsheng, et al. Research on fast evaluation method of earthquake damage and loss of lifeline engineering and the software. World Earthquake Engineering, 1998,14(3):1-5.]
[26]	高巍, 张于心, 张大伟, 等. 铁路灾害风险的识别与衡量. 北方交通大学学报, 1998,22(3):82-86.
	[ Gao Wei, Zhang Yuxin, Zhang Dawei, et al. On discrimination and measurement of risks in railway disaster. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University, 1998,22(3):82-86.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-0291.1998.03.019.
[27]	高巍, 张于心, 邢俊义, 等. 铁路灾害中承灾体的易损性因素对风险度的修正. 北方交通大学学报, 1999,23(3):77-81.
	[ Gao Wei, Zhang Yuxin, Xing Junyi, et al. Vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies and its revisal of disaster risk-degree in railway disaster. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University, 1999,23(3):77-81.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-0291.1999.03.017.
[28]	陈亚宁, 杨思全. 新亚欧大陆桥新疆段暴雨灾变事件的灰色预测. 干旱区地理, 1999,22(4):77-82.
	[ Chen Yaning, Yang Siquan. Grey forecast of cataclysm rainstorm events along Xinjiang section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Arid Land Geography, 1999,22(4):77-82.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn: 1000-6060.1999.04.012.
[29]	陈亚宁, 杨思全. 新亚欧大陆桥新疆段易损性评估方法研究. 地理学与国土研究, 1999,15(4):18-35.
	[ Chen Yaning, Yang Siquan. Study on vulnerability assessment method Xinjiang section of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Geography and Territorial Research, 1999,15(4):18-35.]
[30]	陈亚宁, 李卫红, 杨思全, 等. 新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境地质灾害研究. 干旱区地理, 2001,24(1):31-34.
	[ Chen Yaning, Li Weihong, Yang Siquan, et al. Study on the environmental geological hazards along Xinjiang section of New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Arid Land Geography, 2001,24(1):31-34.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6060.2001.01.005.
[31]	陈亚宁, 徐海量. 新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的模糊马尔可夫链状预测. 干旱区资源与环境, 2002,16(1):32-36.
	[ Chen Yaning, Xu Hailiang. Fuzzy-Markovian chain forecast of environmental hazards in Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2002,16(1):32-36.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-7578.2002.01.006.
[32]	杨思全, 陈亚宁, 王昂生, 等. 基于灰色理论的铁路水害危险度计算模型. 自然灾害学报, 2002,11(2):119-124.
	[ Yang Siquan, Chen Yaning, Wang Angsheng, et al. Railway flood hazard-evaluating model on the basis of grey theory. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002,11(2):119-124.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.02.021.
[33]	陈艳艳, 刘小明, 任福田. 交通路网灾害风险系统影响分析. 公路交通科技, 2002,19(4):81-84.
	[ Chen Yanyan, Liu Xiaoming, Ren Futian. Disaster risk analysis of transportation infrastructure system. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2002,19(4):81-84.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0268.2002.04.023.
[34]	沈永平, 王亚国, 魏文寿, 等. 冰雪灾害. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009: 85-100.
	[ Shen Yongping, Wang Yaguo, Wei Wenshou, et al. Snow Disaster. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2009: 85-100.]
[35]	Geriving. Multi-risk assessment of Europe′s regions. In: Birkmann J. ed. Measuring Vulnerability to Hazards of National Origin. Tokyo: UNU Press, 2006: 210-226.
[36]	高庆华, 马宗晋, 张业成, 等. 自然灾害评估. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 1-66.
	[ Gao Qinghua, Ma Zongjin, Zhang Yecheng, et al. Natural Disaster Assessment. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007: 1-66.]
[37]	高荣, 韦志刚, 董文杰, 等. 20世纪后期青藏高原积雪和冻土变化及其与气候变化的关系. 高原气象, 2003,22(2):191-196.
	[ Gao Rong, Wei Zhigang, Dong Wenjie, et al. Variation of the snow and frozen soil over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in the late twentieth century and their relations to climatic change. Plateau Meteorology, 2003,22(2):191-196.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn: 1000-0534.2003.02.015.
[38]	王莘, 温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典(青海卷). 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	[ Wang Shen, Wen Kegang. China Meteorological Disaster Ceremony (Qinghai Province). Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[39]	刘光轩, 温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典(西藏卷). 北京: 气象出版社, 2008.
	[ Liu Guangxuan, Wen Kegang. China Meteorological Disaster Ceremony (Tibet Volume). Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2008.]
[40]	青海省气候资料中心. 青海省气候公报. 西宁: 青海省气象局, 2016.
	[ Climate Materials Center of the Qinghai Province. Climate Bulletin of the Qinghai Province. Xining: Qinghai Meteorological Bureau, 2016.]
[41]	西藏自治区气候中心. 西藏自治区气候公报. 拉萨: 西藏气象局, 2016.
	[ Climate materials center of the Qinghai Province. Climate bulletin of the Qinghai Province. Lhasa: Xizang Meteorological Bureau, 2016.]
[42]	国家统计局农村社会经济调查司编. 《中国县域统计年鉴(县市卷)(2016)》. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2017: 391-398.
	[ National Bureau of Rural Social and Economic Investigation Division. China County Statistical Yearbook (Counties and Cities) (2016). Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2017: 391-398.]
[43]	青海省统计局, 国家统计局青海调查总队编. 《青海统计年鉴-2016》. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2016: 2-520.
	[ Qinghai Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics Qinghai Investigation Corps. Qinghai Statistical Yearbook-2016. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2016: 2-520.]
[44]	西藏统计局, 国家统计局西藏调查总队编. 《西藏统计年鉴-2016》. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2016: 2-230.
	[ Tibet Statistics Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics Tibet Investigation Corps. Tibet Statistical Yearbook-2016. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2016: 2-230.]
[45]	韦志刚. 青藏高原积雪异常的持续性研究. 冰川冻土, 2001,23(3):225-230.
	[ Wei Zhigang. Persistence of the snow anomalies on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2001,23(3):225-230.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2001.03.003.
[46]	青海省地方志编纂委员会. 青海省志:铁路交通志. 北京: 中华书局出版社, 2000: 2-535.
	[ Qinghai Provincial Local Records Compilation Committee. Qinghai Provincial Records. Railway Traffic Log. Beijing: Zhonghua Book Company Press, 2000: 2-535.]
[47]	贾云翔, 李响, 部瑞梅, 等. 青藏铁路格尔木-拉萨段地质灾害危险性评估. 见: 贠小苏主编: 国家重大建设工程地质灾害危险性评估理论和实践. 北京: 地质出版社, 2008: 253-292.
	[ Jia Yunxiang, Li Xiang, Bu Ruimei, et al. Qinghai-Tibet Railway Golmud-Lhasa segment geological hazard risk assessment. In: Yun Xiaosu ed. National Major Construction Project Geological Disaster Risk Assessment Theory and Practice. Beijing: Geological Publishing House, 2008: 253-292.]
[48]	Liu Fenggui, Zhang Yili, Mao Xufeng. Risk analysis of snow disaster in the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014,24(3):411-426. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-014-1097-z.
[49]	沈渭寿, 张慧, 邹长新. 青藏铁路生态影响预测与评价. 北京: 中国环境科学出版社, 2005: 1-10.
	[ Shen Weishou, Zhang Hui, Zou Changxin. Prediction and Evaluation of Ecological Impact of Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Beijing: China Environment Science Press, 2005: 1-10.]
[50]	刘峰贵, 张海峰, 陈琼, 等. 青藏铁路沿线自然灾害地理组和特征分析. 地理科学, 2010,30(3):384-390.
	[ Liu Fenggui, Zhang Haifeng, Chen Qiong, et al. The characteristics of natural hazard regional combination law along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2010,30(3):384-390.]
[51]	王瑞平. 青海省地图(1:2480000). 北京: 中国地图出版社, 2009.
	[ Wang Ruiping. Map of Qinghai Province (1:2480000). Beijing: Sino Maps Press, 2009.]
[52]	王瑞平. 西藏自治区地图(1:2090000). 北京: 中国地图出版社, 2008.
	[ Wang Ruiping. Map of Tibet Autonomous Region (1:2 090 000). Beijing: Sino Maps Press, 2009.]
[53]	Saito T, Kojima T, Matsuda H. Evaluation of avalanche risk for Hokuriku-Shinkansen. Snow Blow, 2000,62(1):29-39. DOI: 10.5331/seppyo.62.29.
[54]	Gruber U, Margreth S. Winter 1999: A valuable test of the avalanche-hazard mapping procedure in Switzerland. Annals of Glaciology, 2001,321(1):328-332. DOI: 10.3189/172756401781819238.
[55]	高卫东, 刘明哲, 魏文寿, 等. 铁路沿线风吹雪灾害及其防治研究. 中国铁道科学, 2004,25(5):97-101.
	[ Gao Weidong, Liu Mingzhe, Wei Wenshou, et al. Study on the drifting snow disaster along railway and preventive treatment. China Railway Science, 2004,25(5):97-101.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-4632.2004.05.019.
[56]	中华人民共和国铁道部. 铁路隧道规范. TB10003-2005 J449-2005. 北京: 中华人民共和国铁道部, 2005.
	[ The Ministry of Railways of the People's Republic of China. Huan Road Tam borrow Standard. TB10003-2005 J449-2005. Beijing: The Ministry of Railways of the People's Republic of China, 2005.]
[57]	张于心, 鲍枫. 铁路受灾经济损失评估方法探讨. 北方交通大学学报, 2000,24(3):63-65.
	[ Zhang Yuxin, Bao Feng. An approach to assessment of railway economic loss from disaster. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University, 2000,24(3):63-65.] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-0291.2000.03.013.
[58]	葛全胜, 邹铭, 郑景云, 等. 中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008: 2-275.
	[ Ge Quansheng, Zou Ming, Zheng Jingyun, et al. Preliminary Study on Comprehensive Assessment of Natural Disaster Risk in China. Beijing: Science Press, 2008: 2-275.]
[59]	许世远, 王军, 石纯, 等. 沿海城市自然灾害风险研究. 地理学报, 2006,61(2):127-138.
	[ Xu Shiyuan, Wang Jun, Shi Chun, et al. Research of the natural disaster risk on coastal cities. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2006,61(2):127-138.] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn: 0375-5444.2006.02.002.

因子层	副因子层（权重）		指标层（权重）
致险性	积雪雪灾致险性（0.3）		雪灾频率（0.5）雪灾强度（0.5）最大年积雪日数（0.5）最大年积雪深度（0.5）
	雪崩雪灾致险性（0.2）		雪崩频率（0.5）雪崩强度（0.5）地形坡度（0.5）最大年积雪深度（0.5）
	风吹雪雪灾致险性（0.5）		最大年积雪深度（0.3）地表粗糙度（0.4）年平均风速（0.3）
脆弱性	物理暴露（0.7）		路基和轨道（0.2）桥梁和涵洞（0.15）铁路隧道（0.15）沿线车站（0.2）列车密度（0.3）
	应灾能力（0.3）	基础应灾能力（0.4）	沿线安置能力（0.15）通讯能力（0.2）车站及等级（0.15）人口密度（0.15）每千人医生人数（0.2）每千人病床数（0.15）
		专项应灾能力（0.3）	抗灾减灾工程措施（0.5）自然灾害监测和预报能力(0.5)
		救灾环境条件（0.3）	铁路与公路的距离（0.2）沿线海拔高度（0.5）与主要城镇的距离（0.3）

铁路桥梁分类	特大桥	大桥	中桥	小桥	涵洞
多孔跨径总长度L（m）	L ≥500	500>L ≥100	100>L ≥20	L<20	—
权重值	0.500	0.300	0.100	0.075	0.025

隧道分类	长隧道	中长隧道		短隧道（含明洞）
隧道分类	长隧道	中长隧道	中短隧道	短隧道（含明洞）
隧道长度L（m）	10000≥L>3000	3000≥L>1000	1000≥L>500	L≤500
权重值	0.700	0.200	0.075	0.025

物理暴露等级	二等站	三等站	四等站	五等站	无人值守站
建筑规模	较大	一定规模	一般	简单,有人值守	无人值守
轨道数量	>8轨	4~8轨	3~4轨	2~3轨	2~3轨
发送人数	>1000	500-1000	<500
车站地位	铁路枢纽	重要客货运	一般客货运	会让,越行	会让,越行
权重值	0.40	0.30	0.15	0.10	0.05

青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估

A risk assessment of snow disaster along Qinghai-Tibet Railway

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 10

参考文献 59

相关文章 11

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	马超, 崔培培, 钟广睿, 孟梦, 杨城, 马雯思. 气候变化和工程活动对青藏铁路沿线植被指数时空变化的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(1): 35-51.
[2]	刘媛媛, 王绍强, 王小博, 江东, N H Ravindranath, Atiq Rahman, Nyo Mar Htwe, Tartirose Vijitpan. 基于AHP_熵权法的孟印缅地区洪水灾害风险评估[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(8): 1892-1906.
[3]	李延森, 周金星, 吴秀芹. 青藏铁路（格拉段）修建对沿线植被生态系统及其弹性的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(11): 2129-2140.
[4]	李卫江, 温家洪, 吴燕娟. 基于PGIS的社区洪涝灾害概率风险评估——以福建省泰宁县城区为例[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(1): 31-42.
[5]	孟万忠, 刘晓峰, 王尚义, 赵景波, 牛俊杰. 近百年山西霜雪灾害时空特征[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(12): 2292-2300.
[6]	刘毅, 吴绍洪, 徐中春, 戴尔阜. 自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研——以山西省地震灾害风险为例[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(2): 195-208.
[7]	盛绍学,石磊,刘家福,叶金印,刘荆. 沿淮湖泊洼地区域暴雨洪涝风险评估[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(3): 416-422.
[8]	刘峰贵,马玉玲,魏本勇,张镱锂,周强,张海峰. 中国陆路交通干线自然灾害风险刍议[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(5): 1147-1156.
[9]	长安, 葛全胜, 方修琦, 席建超. 青藏铁路旅游线气候适宜性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(3): 533-540.
[10]	谢华, 廖晓勇, 陈同斌, 林鉴钊. 污染农田中植物的砷含量及其健康风险评估——以湖南郴州邓家塘为例[J]. 地理研究, 2005, 24(1): 151-159.
[11]	赵士鹏. 闽江上游地区山洪灾害风险评估^*[J]. 地理研究, 1997, 16(1): 98-103.