新冠肺炎疫情对中国区域经济的影响

doi:10.11821/dlyj020200669

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济产生了巨大冲击。本文从悲观、中观和乐观三种情景预测了2020年中国经济增速,根据各地疫情严重程度分别用不同情景利用历史数据预测了各省2020年经济数据,随后运用Dagum基尼系数等方法分析了疫情对中国区域经济的影响。研究发现：即使在悲观情景下,中国经济在2020年仍能实现1.90%的增长,完全有能力实现“六稳”“六保”任务,保障经济社会平稳健康运行;中观和乐观情景下,预计2020年中国经济增速将达到2.20%和3.74%;地区差异分析表明,地区差异扩大的趋势放缓,地区内部的不平衡加剧,而地区之间的差距变大。基于此,本文提出以疫后恢复为契机,充分挖掘中国区域经济发展的巨大潜力,实现区域增长接力,稳定经济增长。

关键词: 新冠肺炎, 区域经济学, 地区差异

Abstract:

This paper predicts China's economic growth rate in 2020 under the influence of the COVID-19. We measure the impact of the COVID-19 on China's regional economic distribution quantitatively. This paper predicts China's economic growth in 2020 from three scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. According to the severity of the epidemic in various regions, the historical data is used to predict the economic data of each province in 2020. Then, the Dagum Gini method is used to analyze the changes of China's regional economic structure after the epidemic. Even in the pessimistic scenario, China's economy can still achieve 1.90% growth in 2020, and is fully capable of achieving the “six stability” and "six guarantees" tasks to ensure the stable and healthy operation of the economy and society; under the moderate and optimistic scenarios, it is expected that China's economic growth rate in 2020 will reach 2.20% and 3.74%, respectively. The analysis of regional differences shows that the trend of regional differences is expanding, the imbalance within the region is intensified, and the differences between regions become larger. This paper is helpful to objectively and comprehensively understand the changes of regional economic after COVID-19, and provide policy recommendation for the optimization and adjustment of regional economic policies.

Key words: COVID-19, regional economics, regional differences

刘帅. 新冠肺炎疫情对中国区域经济的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(2): 310-325.

LIU Shuai. The impact of COVID-19 on China's regional economy[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(2): 310-325.

图/表 6

表1

表2

表3

2020年各地GDP预测数据"

序号	省份	2020年第三季度同比增速(%)	2020年第三季度当季值(万亿)	2020年第四季度同比增速(%)	2020年第四季度当季值(万亿)	2020年 GDP (万亿)	2020增速 (%)	2020年目标(%)
1	湖北	3.72	10255.0	6.83	13056.8	38198.7	-5.60	7.50
2	北京	6.00	7404.3	5.87	9443.9	30603.6	1.70	6.00
3	上海	6.20	8192.1	6.00	9725.6	33273.6	1.95	6.00
4	黑龙江	4.30	4284.8	4.06	8059.9	18918.2	0.88	5.00
5	浙江	5.67	14461.4	7.26	18574.3	59229.7	3.80	6.00
6	江西	8.60	6640.7	6.64	7517.7	24576.2	4.66	8.00
7	重庆	6.48	5833.7	6.30	6322.9	22208.2	3.78	6.00
8	海南	5.95	1115.0	6.55	1463.6	4932.9	1.92	6.50
9	安徽	7.45	8283.5	6.76	9259.2	31567.6	4.17	7.50
10	湖南	8.83	10985.8	7.15	12903.5	41562.8	5.03	7.50
11	广东	6.21	24828.2	5.68	27968.8	98732.6	1.90	6.00
12	河南	6.90	14526.5	5.93	14151.8	51599.9	3.35	7.00
13	天津	4.60	5712.4	5.44	5104.8	20558.9	0.63	5.00
14	宁夏	6.50	1191.0	6.50	1307.6	4044.0	4.46	6.50
15	福建	9.82	8866.1	8.92	14204.7	37793.7	5.72	7.00
16	江苏	8.20	24365.6	7.28	26141.9	95998.6	4.39	6.00
17	陕西	8.52	6414.4	8.42	8477.6	25371.8	4.67	6.50
18	内蒙古	7.76	6149.1	6.37	7627.9	23196.1	2.44	6.00
19	山东	7.40	22204.8	7.77	24147.8	85104.0	3.91	6.00
20	四川	9.65	13041.9	8.67	11665.5	43282.4	5.37	>全国2个百分点
21	山西	7.51	4290.9	7.28	5218.1	17011.3	3.40	6.10
22	甘肃	8.23	2727.2	8.41	2953.0	8998.8	5.69	6.00
23	广西	6.77	5052.1	8.81	9162.1	23074.0	5.17	6.00
24	吉林	3.50	4408.2	6.98	7108.8	17765.5	3.40	5.00
25	河北	8.82	10591.0	8.30	11912.3	40617.7	4.35	6.50
26	贵州	10.23	4417.9	9.43	5185.8	16271.6	6.30	8.00
27	云南	10.18	5339.4	8.85	7439.9	20499.9	5.91	>全国
28	辽宁	7.52	8702.3	7.04	10454.1	33791.5	2.22	6.00
29	新疆	8.76	3912.0	8.42	4180.7	12982.4	6.53	5.50
30	青海	7.70	878.0	9.53	1156.4	3383.6	5.54	6.00
31	西藏	10.30	503.6	8.50	425.4	1573.8	7.63	9.00

表3

图1

图2

图3

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疫情严重程度	地区
重灾区	湖北
严重地区	北京、上海、黑龙江、浙江、江西、重庆、海南、安徽、湖南、广东、河南、天津、宁夏
一般地区	福建、江苏、陕西、内蒙古、山东、四川、山西、甘肃、广西、吉林、河北、贵州、云南、辽宁、新疆、青海、西藏

情景	第一季度同比增速(%)	第二季度同比增速(%)	第三季度同比增速(%)	前三季度当季值合计(万亿)	第四季度同比增速(%)	第四季度当季值(万亿)	2020年 GDP (万亿)	2020年增速 (%)
悲观	-6.8	3.2	4.9	648136.6	4.9	260360.5	908497.1	1.90
中观					6.0	263090.7	911227.3	2.20
乐观					11.5	276741.6	924878.3	3.74