地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 2442-2458.doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200817

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市房价、收入与房价收入比的时空分异格局

陈艳如1(), 谷跃2,4, 宋伟轩2,3()   

  1. 1. 南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京 210093
    2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008
    3. 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,南京 210008
    4. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-25 接受日期:2020-10-14 出版日期:2021-09-10 发布日期:2021-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 宋伟轩(1981-),男,吉林敦化人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为城市社会地理。E-mail: wxsong@niglas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:陈艳如(1995-),女,福建厦门人,博士研究生,研究方向为城市社会地理。E-mail: chenyanru18@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41871116);国家自然科学基金项目(41771184);国家自然科学基金项目(41901196)

The spatiotemporal differentiation pattern of Chinese urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio

CHEN Yanru1(), GU Yue2,4, SONG Weixuan2,3()   

  1. 1. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
    2. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-08-25 Accepted:2020-10-14 Published:2021-09-10 Online:2021-11-10

摘要:

中国城市房价快速增长背景下,城市房价、收入与房价收入比空间格局既有相似性,也表现出差异性,其空间异质性与空间依赖性特征显著。本文以中国337个地级行政单元为研究对象,运用泰尔指数、位序-规模和空间马尔科夫链等方法,对2009—2018年中国城市房价、收入和房价收入比的时空分异格局、整体稳定性和空间依赖性特征进行分析发现:① 中国城市房价增长呈现出波动性特征,整体分异程度增强,房价城市体系呈现“金字塔型”结构,收入则表现出平稳增长态势,整体分异度降低,城市体系呈现“橄榄型”结构,在房价与收入共同影响下,房价收入比整体差异性显著加强;② 城市房价空间格局表现出“地带性”与“等级性”差异并存,而收入更多表现出“地带性”差异,房价收入比则以“等级性”差异为主;③ 城市房价和收入类型的稳定性和空间依赖性较强,高、低水平城市存在两极分化与“俱乐部收敛”现象,房价收入比稳定性相对较弱。对中国城市房价、收入和房价收入比时空分异格局和空间关联效应的分析,可以为探索中国城市房价收入比空间分异模式与机理提供必要研究基础。

关键词: 住宅价格, 居民收入, 房价收入比, 空间分异, 城市位序-规模, 空间马尔科夫链

Abstract:

Amid the fast-growing housing price in Chinese cities, the spatial pattern of urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio shows both similarities and differences, characterized by internal spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence. This paper targets 337 prefecture-level administrative units and applies the Theil index, rank-size and spatial Markov chain to the analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern, overall stability and spatial dependence of Chinese urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio from 2009 to 2018. It finds the following results. Firstly, the growth of Chinese urban housing price is phase-based and fluctuated. When the overall differentiation enlarges, the urban system of housing price takes on a structure of “pyramid” and income shows sustained and stable growth. When the overall differentiation shrinks, the urban system presents a structure of “olive”. Under the combined influence of housing price and income, the overall differentiation of housing price-to-income ratio is obviously strengthened. Secondly, housing prices, income and housing price-to-income ratios in Chinese cities are all spatially heterogeneous and agglomerated. The spatial pattern of housing price is different in both zonality and hierarchy, while income is particularly different in zonality and housing price-to-income ratio is particularly different in hierarchy. Due to the coexistence of similarities and differences between housing prices and income patterns in Chinese cities, the housing price-to-income ratio pattern presents a more complex and discrete structure. Thirdly, the stability and spatial dependence of urban housing price and the type of income is stronger, while the stability of housing price-to-income ratio is relatively weak as there are polarization and club convergence in cities at different levels. Housing prices to the north of the "Hu Huanyong Line" shifted downwards, income shifted upwards, and the housing price-to-income ratio declined. In the southern regions, housing prices generally rose rapidly, with income shifts showing stable in the east, downwards in the central region, and upwards in the west, leading to the discrete and broken pattern of housing price-to-income ratios. Moreover, the type shifts of urban housing price, income and housing price-to-income ratio are not spatially independent, but related to the neighboring cities. The analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern and spatial correlation effect of Chinese urban housing price, income, and housing price-to-income ratio lays a foundation for research on the spatial differentiation pattern and mechanism of Chinese urban housing price-to-income ratio.

Key words: housing price, resident income, housing price-to-income ratio, spatial differentiation, city rank-size, spatial Markov chain