区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义

doi:10.11821/dlyj020201102

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口空间分布格局的改变既是区域协调发展战略实施的结果,也是推进区域协调发展的重要手段之一。本文以流动人口的回流空间意愿作为切入点,采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对流动人口回流的空间意愿、群体差异和影响因素进行研究,并探讨其对区域协调发展和新型城镇化的政策含义。研究发现,流动人口的回流意愿薄弱;对具有回流意愿的流动人口来说,回流空间的路径选择以返回原居地为主、乡镇中心和县城为辅。模型结果显示,流动人口回流空间选择不仅是其人力资本和流动经历正向选择的结果,也显著地受到流出地住房和流入地的就业收入和养老保险等因素的影响,而流出地的家庭需求和空间成本则无显著影响。在此背景下,政策制定者不能高估人口回流对人口流动空间格局和人口均衡发展的调整作用,也不能高估回流劳动力对流出地城镇化和城乡协调发展的促进作用,而应加强流出地城镇自我可持续发展的能力,吸引人口主动回流,以推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化战略的落实。

关键词: 流动人口, 回流空间意愿, 区域协调发展, 人口分布

Abstract:

With rapid development of urbanization and continuous decline of the birth rate, migration has become an important factor affecting population distribution and coordinated regional development in China. Return migration, which is promoted by global economic restructuring, industrial upgrading in the coastal areas, and the relocation of industries from coastal to inland areas, has emerged as a new trend of migration with potentially important spatial and developmental implications. Some important research questions, such as what the locational preferences of migrants are when they return, whether return migrants can serve as catalysts to promote in-situ urbanization in the central and western regions and coordinated regional development in China, have arisen from this new trend and need to be urgently addressed. However, so far not enough attention has been paid to this important trend of migration and its spatial and developmental effects. Using data from China Migrant Dynamic Survey in 2016, this paper addresses the above research questions by examining migrants’ locational intention of return migration, its determinants, and its policy implications for population distribution and coordinated regional development. The results show that migrants’ return intention is low, and for those with return intention, the original places of residence (villages) are the main locations they choose to return, followed by the seats of town, township and county governments. The modelling results reveal that migrants’ locational intention of return migration is not only positively related to their human capital, but also significantly affected by the factors of housing in the original places, and employment, income and endowment insurance in the destination cities. At the same time, we find that factors relating to migrants’ mobility characteristics significantly affect migrants’ locational choice of return migration, while family demand in the original places has no significant effect. These results suggest that policy makers should not overestimate the role of return migration in reshaping the spatial patterns of migration and coordinated regional development, especially the urbanization of migrants’ places of origin. Instead, efforts should be made to strengthen the capability of self-sustainable development of urban areas in the places of origin, so as to attract more active returning migrants, and promote the implementation of the coordinated regional development strategy.

Key words: migrant, locational intention of return migration, coordinated regional development, population distribution

林李月, 朱宇, 柯文前. 区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(5): 1515-1528.

LIN Liyue, ZHU Yu, KE Wenqian. Locational intention of return migration of migrants and its policy implications in the context of coordinated regional development[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(5): 1515-1528.

图/表 6

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

流动人口回流空间意愿影响因素的模型结果"

		乡镇中心			县城
		B	标准误	Exp(B)	B	标准误	Exp(B)
	截距	-4.317***	0.845		-5.472***	0.700
个人因素	年龄	0.041*	0.029	1.042	-0.023	0.022	0.978
	年龄平方	-0.001**	0.000	0.999	0.000	0.000	1.000
	婚姻状况(未婚)
	已婚	0.091	0.150	1.095	-0.155	0.116	0.857
	教育程度(初中及以下)
	高中及以上×女性	0.620***	0.130	1.858	0.792***	0.101	2.208
	高中及以上×男性	-0.153	0.118	0.858	0.596***	0.095	1.814
流动特征	流动时间	0.051***	0.008	1.052	0.041***	0.007	1.042
	流动次数	-0.012	0.034	0.988	0.075***	0.023	1.077
	流动方式(独自流动)
	家庭化流动	0.417***	0.129	1.517	0.268**	0.103	1.307
	半家庭化流动	0.320**	0.123	1.377	0.083	0.101	1.087
	流动范围(市内跨县)
	跨省流动	-0.494**	0.191	0.610	-0.289	0.156	0.749
	省内跨市	-0.015	0.186	0.985	-0.228	0.158	0.796
流出地变量	流出地地域(西部)
	东部	-0.015	0.127	0.985	0.108	0.103	1.114
	中部	0.020	0.100	1.020	0.036	0.082	1.036
	流出地住房拥有(无)
	户籍地村自购房	-0.219	0.128	0.803	-0.538***	0.115	0.584
	户籍地城镇购房	1.667***	0.088	5.297	1.568***	0.073	4.798
	流出地是否有医疗保险(否)	-0.130	0.090	0.878	0.121	0.077	1.129
	流出地是否有养老保险(否)	-0.086	0.096	0.917	0.070	0.082	1.073
	流出地是否有留守老人(否)	-0.434	0.525	0.648	-0.479	0.389	0.620
	流出地是否有学龄期儿童(否)	0.211	0.112	1.235	0.117	0.100	1.124
流入地变量	流入地地域（西部）
	东部	0.149	0.150	1.160	-0.141	0.122	0.869
	中部	-0.183	0.216	0.833	-0.047	0.177	0.954
	流入地是否直辖或省会城市(否)	0.044	0.096	1.045	-0.198*	0.083	0.820
	流入地城镇是否有购房(否)	0.184	0.188	1.202	0.229	0.147	1.257
	流入地是否有医疗保险(否)	-0.213	0.155	0.808	-0.016	0.118	0.984
	流入地是否有养老保险(否)	-0.042	0.137	0.959	0.320**	0.110	1.378
	就业身份(雇员和其他)
	雇主和自营×女性	0.423**	0.147	1.526	0.103	0.127	1.108
	雇主和自营×男性	0.443***	0.121	1.557	0.250*	0.115	1.284
	无就业×女性	0.188	0.363	1.207	0.413	0.303	1.512
	无就业×男性	0.523	0.368	1.687	0.472	0.319	1.604
	个人月均收入
	个人月均收入×女	0.049	0.044	1.050	0.099**	0.037	1.104
	个人月均收入×男	0.098^*	0.043	1.103	0.078*	0.036	1.082
	家庭月总收入	0.078	0.085	1.081	0.381***	0.072	1.464
-2对数似然值		11727.572
伪R²		0.212

表2

表3

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变量	选项	百分比或均值	变量	选项	百分比或均值
个人因素			流动特征
年龄（岁）	具体数值	37.66	流动时间（年）	具体数值	4.18
性别	女	47.14	流动方式	家庭化流动	34.69
	男	52.86		半家庭化流动	34.62
教育程度	高中及以上	26.65		非家庭化流动	30.69
	初中及以下	73.35	流动范围	跨省流动	78.07
婚姻状况	未婚	19.87		省内跨市	16.52
	已婚	80.13		市内跨县	5.41
流入地因素			流动次数（次）	具体数值	1.59
流入地地域	东部	82.01	流出地因素
	中部	5.95	流出地地域	东部	21.42
	西部	12.94		中部	45.49
是否是直辖或省会城市	是=1,否=0	21.83		西部	33.09
流入地城镇是否有购房	是=1,否=0	4.89	流出地是否有医疗保险	是=1,否=0	67.45
流入地是否有医疗保险	是=1,否=0	13.46	流出地是否有养老保险	是=1,否=0	28.60
流入地是否有养老保险	是=1,否=0	20.72	流出地是否有留守老人	是=1,否=0	1.68
家庭月总收入	取对数	8.63	流出地是否有学龄期儿童	是=1,否=0	17.49
个人月均收入	取对数	6.94	流出地住房拥有状况	户籍地村有购房	17.27
就业身份	雇员和其他	65.18		户籍地城镇购房	18.95
	雇主和自营	19.97		无	63.78
	无就业	14.85

变量	模型1		模型2		模型3		模型4
变量	乡镇中心	县城	乡镇中心	县城	乡镇中心	县城	乡镇中心	县城
流出地东部×男	0.232 (0.128)	0.264* (0.11)
流入地东部×男	0.004 (0.143)	-0.222 (0.119)
流出地东部×高中及以上			-0.107 (0.154)	-0.169 (0.117)
流入地东部×高中及以上			0.609** (0.205)	0.218 (0.144)
流出地东部×流动时间					0.002 (0.012)	-0.003 (0.011)
流入地东部×流动时间					0.035 (0.018)	-0.001 (0.015)
流出地东部×家庭月总收入							0.004 (0.013)	0.009 (0.010)
流入地东部×家庭月总收入							0.015 (0.015)	-0.014 (0.012)
其他变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
-2对数似然值	11748.012		11746.134		11752.84		11755.137
伪 R²	0.210		0.210		0.210		0.209