长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长特征及驱动机制

doi:10.11821/dlyj020201111

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口城镇化的快速推进与生态城镇化的建设滞后是中国快速城镇化进程中面临的重要问题。以长三角地区城市人口与绿地面积为研究对象,构建城市人口-绿地面积异速增长模型分析2000—2018年两者关系的时空变化规律,并运用地理探测器模型揭示异速增长的驱动机制。结果表明：① 长三角地区城市人口呈加速增长态势,绿地建设增长缓慢,城市人口-绿地面积异速关系逐渐由人地基本协调型转变为人口扩张弱型,2000—2008年多数城市表现出绿地扩张的特征,2009—2018年则转变为人口扩张的特征。② 教育投入度、人口集中度、设施供给度、土地开发度和对外开放度是影响长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长的主要因子,双因子交互解释力均高于单因子,各因子间的影响具有协同增强的特征。③ 长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长是行政力、市场力和外资力共同驱动的结果,三种驱动力彼此联系、协同作用,主导驱动力逐渐由行政力转变为市场力。

关键词: 城市人口, 绿地面积, 异速增长, 驱动机制, 长三角地区

Abstract:

The rapid development of population urbanization and the lag of ecological urbanization are major problems in the process of China's rapid urbanization. This paper, taking the urban population and green space area in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as the research object, constructs an urban population and green space area allometric growth model to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the relationship between the two from 2000 to 2018, and uses the geographic detector model to reveal the driving mechanism of the allometric growth. The results show that: (1) The urban population in the study area is increasing rapidly, while the green space construction land is growing slowly. The allometric relationship between urban population and green space area in the region has gradually changed from the coordination of human and land to population expansion. Most cities are characterised by green space expansion from 2000 to 2008, but by population expansion from 2009 to 2018. (2) Education input, population concentration, facility supply, land development, and external development degree are the main factors affecting the allometric growth of urban population and green space area in the YRD. The interactive explanatory power of the two factors is higher than that of the single factor, and the influence among the factors is characterized by synergistic enhancement. (3) The allometric growth of urban population and green space area in the YRD is the result of the joint drive of administrative force, market force and foreign capital. The three driving forces are interrelated and synergistic, and the leading driving force is gradually transformed from administrative force to market force.

Key words: urban population, green space area, allometric growth, driving mechanism, Yangtze River Delta region

尹上岗, 杨山. 长三角地区城市人口-绿地面积异速增长特征及驱动机制[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(10): 2780-2795.

YIN Shanggang, YANG Shan. The characteristics and driving mechanism of allometric growth of urban population and green space area in the Yangtze River Delta region[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2021, 40(10): 2780-2795.

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异速增长类型	异速级别	划分标准	异速关系类型	异速关系特征
正异速增长	正异速三级	3<b	绿地扩张强型	绿地相对增长速度远远高于人口相对增长速度,人均绿地面积大幅上升
	正异速二级	1<b<3	绿地扩张弱型	绿地相对增长速度高于人口相对增长速度,人均绿地面积小幅上升
	正异速一级	0.85<b<1	人地基本协调	绿地相对增长速度稍高于人口相对增长速度
负异速增长	负异速一级	0.5<b<0.85	人口扩张弱型	绿地相对增长速度低于人口相对增长速度,人均绿地面积小幅下降
	负异速二级	0<b<0.5	人口扩张强型	绿地相对增长速度远远低于人口相对增长速度,人均绿地面积大幅下降
	负异速三级	b<0	人地有所收缩	绿地面积和城区人口其中一个减少或同时减少

年份	拟合方程	标度指数	拟合优度R²	异速级别
2000	lnA=3.9077+0.8855lnP	0.8855	0.6161	正异速一级
2001	lnA=3.8332+0.9281lnP	0.9281	0.6422	正异速一级
2002	lnA=3.6403+1.0170lnP	1.0170	0.6758	正异速二级
2003	lnA=3.7971+0.9907lnP	0.9907	0.7136	正异速一级
2004	lnA=3.9216+0.9667lnP	0.9667	0.6912	正异速一级
2005	lnA=4.1944+0.9215lnP	0.9215	0.6850	正异速一级
2006	lnA=4.7345+0.8168lnP	0.8168	0.5696	负异速一级
2007	lnA=4.8845+0.8081lnP	0.8081	0.6570	负异速一级
2008	lnA=4.8781+0.8194lnP	0.8194	0.6761	负异速一级
2009	lnA=4.7914+0.8689lnP	0.8689	0.7289	正异速一级
2010	lnA=4.9070+0.8487lnP	0.8487	0.7192	负异速一级
2011	lnA=4.9846+0.8510lnP	0.8387	0.7112	负异速一级
2012	lnA=5.0676+0.8462lnP	0.8318	0.7174	负异速一级
2013	lnA=5.3670+0.7943lnP	0.7943	0.6749	负异速一级
2014	lnA=5.5123+0.7676lnP	0.7676	0.6737	负异速一级
2015	lnA=4.9714+0.8248lnP	0.8248	0.6815	负异速一级
2016	lnA=5.0058+0.8241lnP	0.8241	0.6839	负异速一级
2017	lnA=4.9844+0.8340lnP	0.8340	0.6924	负异速一级
2018	lnA=4.9919+0.8360lnP	0.8360	0.6992	负异速一级

驱动因素	具体指标	计算方法	单位
经济密度	地均GDP	地区生产总值/行政区面积	万元/km²
土地开发度	建成区面积占市区面积比重	建成区面积/市区面积	%
财政投入度	地均财政支出	地方财政支出/行政区面积	万元/km²
设施供给度	地均社会固定资产投资额	社会固定资产投资额/行政区面积	万元/km²
人口集中度	非农业人口占总人口比重	非农业人口/总人口	%
教育投入度	教育支出占财政支出比重	教育经费支出/地方财政支出	%
绿化投入度	建成区绿化覆盖率	绿化覆盖面积/建成区面积	%
对外开放度	地均使用外资金额	实际使用外资金额/行政区面积	万美元/km²

驱动因素	2000—2008年			2009—2018年
驱动因素	q_D_,_U	P值	q_D_,_U排序	q_D_,_U	P值	q_D_,_U排序
经济密度	0.1727	0.1984	4	0.1977	0.1572	5
土地开发度	0.1985	0.1417	3	0.1765	0.2069	7
财政投入度	0.1660	0.2158	5	0.1917	0.1707	6
设施供给度	0.1512	0.2593	6	0.2365^*	0.0950	3
人口集中度	0.2286^*	0.0929	2	0.2328^*	0.0978	4
教育投入度	0.2630^*	0.0639	1	0.2455^*	0.0845	2
绿化投入度	0.1226	0.3674	7	0.1327	0.3362	8
对外开放度	0.1197	0.3820	8	0.2467^*	0.0817	1